Easton Luna Boys

All very entertaining for sure, but there is of course, no such thing as pattern matching/comparing similar passages of weather from past events and certainly no guarantee that by experiencing a mild December will lead to a colder January/February. Personally, if we could get through this wet and windy period, I would be very happy for a continuation of the mild theme as it makes my job a heck of a lot easier in the run up to Christmas. As for the festive period itself; does anyone really pay that much attention to what is going on outside of your own front door? We are all so consumed with our own Christmas bubble world; be that attending church, exchanging and opening of presents, entertaining family and guests, dealing with the Christmas lunch (which IS all consuming in more ways than one) that it is probably the one time in the year where I am oblivious to what the conditions are outside anyway - and I suspect this irony is experienced by many others as well. I'll be perfectly content with a green and mild Christmas with the heating switched off by 1pm as the latent heat from the radiators and ovens in the kitchen kicks in. Also, I'm completely bemused by some of the comments in some of the other threads about seeing snow in lowland UK next week. We're in a west to east flow for a good while yet, and long may that continue.

It cannot be denied that the meto long range forecasts chop and change all too often; that pulls into question the validity and worthiness of the much vaunted sanctified data that us mere mortals don't have access to. I know some will say "well of course their forecasts will change, that's because they are reacting to the updated information!" But that's my point; it brings into question its value over a longer time range. We can see with the 4 run daily GFS how models can change, so it is not an unreasonable question to ask or doubt to have. Personally, I have and will always stick to "trends trends trends" and cannot see any value other than fictional titillation in looking at a met office forecast beyond 7 days tops. They say a week in politics is a long time... Also, as once again proven; just look at some on here and the other side 10 days ago bullishly predicting a 2010 (or even 62!!??) scenario. I suppose if you look hard enough, you can find a chart to suit your agenda on just about every run - and certainly when looking at fanciful island. Level headiness is a good trait in such situations.

Yes, it's something that we've heard a lot from non forum member types - that this year's easterly at the end of February/beginning of March was exceptionally cold, when actually, while temperatures in lowland England and Wales for the time of year (effectively early Spring less the last day of winter) were considerably below average without a doubt, they were not of course comparable to 1991, 2009/10 etc because it was so late in the season (or early in the next one depending on whether you use the meteorological seasons or not). That said, it was quite a remarkable spell of weather.

We need to keep things firmly in perspective here; the last few days have been chilly, with a somewhat benign easterly, but it isn't exceptional by any stretch of the imagination. You can bet that any waft of a winter easterly from now on will generate sensational headlines from usual suspects in the media - in fact I think it's already started with images of empty supermarket shelves. Looks like a few chilly days with a wintry mix of showers before an upward trend in the temps, although rain levels are expected to be a feature. All standard fare for the time of year. Longer term, there really is nothing but conjecture in terms of what the winter will bring, so hunches along the lines of "I feel January will be the coldest/snowiest month" or "expect a backloaded winter" etc etc is guess work at best. Just look at those that got caught out last week when there were (tentative) signals that we were mirroring the third period of November 2010 - we've all been here before and level heads are called for. Also, if the Meto aren't on board then neither am I