Easton Luna Boys

I'm not sure we'll see any comment from the experts over the weekend on the BBC forecasts. If the likes of Paul Hudson mentioned something tonight on Look North I'd be astonished. That should tell you all you need to know in forecast confidence >144, especially without cross model agreement. Tis the holy trinity of forecasting.

ONLY if we have cross model agreement would I say 144...

T0hrs. As someone once famously said; the train isn't coming until you can see the train...

Whoa!! Easy tiger! Ok, it looks likely that we'll have a downturn in temps in the mid term bringing some colder polar maritime air, with wet snow over the Pennines, Derbyshire et al but, beyond that, no one knows. Talking about 1947 is incredibly audacious!

*Christmas pudding - I meant a certain "post post" old term currently not allowed in here

??Why would it??? 6c in January would be classed as slightly below average; 15 years ago, 150 years ago or currently in the christmas pudding.

Without getting dragged off topic, in its defence it has been more resolute this winter so far, sticking (reasonably so) to its guns in terms of not getting caught up in Walt Disney charts deep in FI. I can recall winters past where it would chop and change in manic bipolar style, but we haven't seen much of that...yet. Perhaps it's why it has proved so unpopular with some commentators this season.

Or the Atlantic trough could be the disruptor - looks like colder air filtering down (for a time at least) yes, but it looks fairly slack. It isn't screaming long fetch Northerly with tight packing isobars. Will be interesting to see just how cold that air will be and how far down the UK it's effects will be felt. E.g. I wouldn't bet against 8c and sunny skies, say south of the M4 corridor!

I don't think this place would be able to handle hourly updates. 4 times a day is bad enough as it is. The higher res sounds tasty. So could be game over for GFS, ECM and the like?

I think this is academic really on the whole; low res accuracy plunges on all of the main models, rendering it all conjecture at best - so the effects of any SSW are redundant at longer range. Verification stats prove this. One word of warning in all of this; Azores High (sorry, that's two words). I am rather surprised that some are focusing on the alignment of the jet digging in on a NW to SE flight, but ignoring the push of the AZH. It's a bit like laying out a picnic in the woods on a warm sunny day, but ignoring the wasps nest in the neighbouring tree. So in summary, looking more promising for cold zonality in the mid term, but still a lot of doubt about stratospheric effects further up stream. J

Let's be honest, It isn't deep cold though. Just a brief transient flirt.

To discount such a NWP big hitter is foolish - I still don't get the GFS player hating as it really has not been that far off the pace this winter's far. In fact, while some were ramping up cold for late November/early December, it kept its nerve and didn't fold at the pre-flop round while others at the table were bullish about their hand.

Yes, I agree with this. I appreciate some are desperate for cold and snow but these factors are the elephants in the rather crowded room. I believe the westerly phase QBO has played a significant factor in the Meto backing away from cold in their update. The trouble is, this has been a continuation for several weeks now and any further pushbacks put us firmly into February - and in the blink of an eye, we're all peering into 384 territory and Spring. A lot of water to pass under the bridge before then but with the output flat for the foreseeable another significant chunk of worthwhile winter gets chewed up. However a lot of useable weather for now for sure so no bad thing at all

Yes, we must remember that the Exeter boys - not the forum amateurs - are there for a reason Meto update re cold being pushed further back once again. Remember that it was originally progged for the beginning of January. As I mentioned previously, once these super HP cells settle over our shores they are incredibly difficult to shift, meandering here and there like a duck on a choppy pond, but still on the scene all the same. Remember, this SSW could sail by with little or no impact at all. The westerly phase of the QBO could also be a signal to mild, hence why the Meto are stalling. In the meantime, plenty of useable weather with calm benign conditions so not a lot to grumble about at all. Happy New Year everyone

It should be renamed a sudden so what warming. So despite some "excellent back ground signals" being trumpeted since mid November by some, the reality is a mild December hovering around 2c above the long term average, and we continue to sit under a Big Daddy High, lumbering from side to side but really not going anywhere fast. All we need is a slight lollop over to the right side and it becomes a bona fide Euro High. I'm afraid that any SSW, SSWWW, or an invasion by Putin would be rendered useless as it would be game over for January We've been here many many times before and I really think that we need to be realistic about the prospects and put the rose tinted glasses away for a while.

True, and I'm afraid this constant GFS bashing is getting rather tedious. Difference in Model accuracy between the big 3 is really not that noteworthy. If it was, then why does it continue to feature in UKMO updates by the Exeter boys when publishing their forecasts? Do amateurs honestly think that they ignore the data output when manually calibrating their information for the general public? Far too much emphasis has been put on SSW this year. Personally, I'll be glad when this latest fad is over and we can get back to the realisation that stratospheric warning is only one element of the complex tapestry of weather prediction. Remember: SSW does not guarantee cold and snow!! In the meantime, a continuation of some very useable weather with the stagnant high allowing some faux cold to at least appease the coldies for the week ahead

Exactly. This is a reality check; despite constant predictions of blocking high scenarios bringing cold and snow by some since late November, nothing has materialised. In fact we are now looking at one of the mildest Decembers on record. It just goes to show that despite years of model watching, no one can really predict the weather with any accuracy more than 5 days out. The trouble is, some are so hell bent on finding cold and snow that it blinds them to reality. Two years ago the term SSW had not been heard of by the majority on weather forums. Now, it seems to be the thing that coldies hang every thread of hope on. I stand by my view that not nearly enough is known about this area by the professionals. Yes, it has received considerable funding, but so did UFO research and where did that get us? It certainly did not bring us any closer to finding alien visitors to these shores. We now have a massive marauding HP cell lurking within t120 that, if it sinks into southern Europe, you can pretty much forget about worrying about the effects of any SSW and write off a considerable chunk of model watching for the foreseeable. I know it's not what many want to hear, but we HAVE to be honest about the possibility of a Bartlett/Euro High setting up for a term. The Meto outlook doesn't bode well for cold weather either. Have a good Thursday all

Exactly. Too often, some people forget we are a maritime climate - and a maritime climate that is seeing ever increasing global temperatures on the rise. You tell me the last time you can remember even a significant screaming northerly having an impact on our shores south of the border? A 48hr toppler?? They are like goldust now. Take that out of the U.K. equation and we are left with the nirvana that is an easterly. A rare rare feature indeed (forget the token gesture that is a polar maritime NW, that doesn't really cut the mustard for anyone east of the Pennines). And as for the latest fashion that is strat warming, well not enough is known about this area so don't hang your hopes on this being the magic bullet in terms of SSW = cold and snow. There's even speculation that it can actually scupper the chances of cold, so be careful what you wish for. So calm and level headedness is what is needed over the next fortnight. Maybe a good time to have a break from model watching for a few days. Stay safe everyone and enjoy the weekend J

For Spring/Summer yes, but when you have an unprecedented whopping high pressure firmly in situ for weeks on end, then it's not difficult to deduce the weather. However, "they" have been poor from mid November onwards, when if you remember about a month ago, some were talking about the high liklhood of a Nov/Dec 2010. Instead we had weeks of rain in a very mobile pattern. I never like the term anyway, as depending on your desired outcome, unless there is continuous, unwavering universal agreement from all the models the "signals" are really only weather wish list items; you can equally find a strong mobile pattern or the mutha of all blocking highs. Again, it's just speculative speculation. Hunches aside, things don't look overly mild or overly cold. As long as the roads are clear for Christmas then I'll be happy for a bright and green one.

I'm glad we agree Not to go further off topic, but anything beyond 144 IS Fantasy Island. % accuracy is historically very poor and very erratic, and that's putting it mildly. Ensemble data enables a general overview of cluster options but are there only for guidance as they cannot be considered high resolution. Tight clustering (has to be consistent on subsequent runs - as per the great run in to Nov/Dec 2010) is a good indicator of forecast confidence, but if we are really honest with ourselves here, consistent tight clustering is not a common occurrence, with the all too predictable unraveling of the spaghetti pasta runs leading to uncertainty - bringing cries of "more runs needed" from the congregation. I am a firm believer that the national weather organisations should invest less in the crystal ball gazing of LRFs and more in the short term models. <144 is the future baby.

As per the bold text highlighted above, effectively, all forum enthusiasts are doing are looking at algorithms produced by a selection of weather forecasting centres/organisations and then putting their best foot forward in terms of what they believe an outcome to be. Unfortunately, due to internal bias, it is commonly human nature to see something that perhaps isn't there and put an altogether exaggerated slant on their preferred result. However, it is still just a guess at the end of the day. Remember; when the fun stops - stop.

Agreed, no surprise at all. In fact, the only surprise was those that were ramping up a scenario that never looked plausible. The high realistically looked too flabby, continental Europe never looked that cold and looking to the west was like telegraphing a David Haye "Haymaker" - the Atlantic was (and is) winding up the big right hand. If a sleety wet mix for a few hours on Saturday is your thing (usual high ground caveats apply), then fair enough, but things look wet and mild after that. GFS deserves an apology.

Lol, I find it bizarre that you find that bizarre; isn't that what most people do at Christmas in this country? Agree on others saying about the zonal train zooming through the station that is December. Beyond that, it's anybody's guess, but I don't agree that out climate is becoming more predictable - or any more predictable than the last 400 years or so. Last summer was legendary, but I don't envisage a sudden flip in our weather patterns meaning that is the norm. I'd gladly take it though and be happy to trade mild wet winters for Mediterranean like summers, but that's just being wishful.

Audacious comment. Be hopeful for sure, but NEVER expect anything

Hmmm, not true I'm afraid. 850s are marginal and there is still a lot of milder, humid air in the mix. SSTs are still above average due to latent heat from the exceptional summer. Cooler yes, but don't believe the winter wonderland hyperbole and don't expect anything exceptional. Depend upon it.