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Turnedoutniceagain

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Posts posted by Turnedoutniceagain

    12z model discussion - it's gonna get cold...

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It`s been along while coming since we`ve seen charts like these in the reliable timeframe if you can call it that :)

    I agree with what a few are saying to get a good few inches of snow firstly which use to happen then get the cold spell afterwards is the perfect scenario but the way this winter has been I`ll take this run :(

    http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1321.png

    http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn1381.png

    UKMO is out and looking very interesting just hope the ECM is good tonight,it was last night.

    http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rukm1201.gif

    Next Saturday - a reliable timeframe, are u sure ???

    SATSIGS

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Rurrrrrp Rurrrrp Rurrrrp Rurrrrrp....

    SATSIGs ALERT

    Mild ramp projecting shin deep snow emanating from the Northern Isles

    Ramp factor 2

    I feel that a wee upgrade to Level 3 may be in order after that excellent 12z !!

    Global Warming

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    People who are saying that this year is only 11th warmest and that this is a sign of a cooldown needs to remember something else first.

    The last few months have had La nina present which while weak does seem to have been enough to slightly reduce global temperatures. Now we have neutral condtions the temps overall should rise a little. combine La Nina with the present solar min occuring and for this year to be still close to the top 10 is still pretty amazing and a strong sign that GW is happening.

    La Nina/El Nino - whatever. We're all doomed anyway, with the Indian & Chinese economies growing at their current rates, another 6 billion people will have fridges & cars in 25 yrs time.

    Never mind, must nip out & empty my recycling bin :D

    Met Office Winter forecast - Updated Feb 6th

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    PLEASE when referring to this or anyone elses' LRF for winter PLEASE quote their EXACT words not some version of your own.

    This is NOT a comment on the 2 already posted but a plea for those that follow.

    John

    John, what they're really trying to say is that we're going to get 14 foot drifts, twice a week from 1/11/06 until next easter. :D:D

    Seriously though, they needn't have bothered. This is a huge "fence-sit" as far as I can see. They've got about as much idea as Mystic Meg (aka TEITS) on what the winter brings.

    Autumn and Winter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    In general, as Ian Brown mentioned above, we need northern blocking to deliver anything significant/sustained to the British Isles. I think this applies to both northerly and easterly sources.

    Northerlies:

    I think for northerlies, for them to be sustainable or keep recurring, you need extensive blocking to the north-west, and by this I don't mean a flimsy little Greenland High, I mean a pronounced anticyclone like this:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120001227.gif

    A flimsy little Greenland High with a northerly tracking jet usually gets pushed out of the way:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120031221.gif

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120031222.gif

    Easterlies:

    For easterlies to deliver, ideally you need there to have been a recent northerly blast in the near-Continent, pumping cold air south. This suggests northern blocking- a high somewhere to the N or NE of Britain pumps cold air south on its eastern flank and then directs it westwards towards Britain.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119910203.gif

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119910207.gif

    It's also possible to have a good easterly from the same kind of blocking that brings potent northerlies- a Greenland High which throws up a ridge towards Scandinavia:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119820106.gif

    On the other hand, easterlies aren't much use when the blocking gets no further NW than southern Scandinavia:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120021209.gif

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120060122.gif

    Zonality:

    From what I've seen, for snowy incursions from the W and NW you need either a Greenland High pumping cold air into the mid-Atlantic that then "returns" eastwards, or less commonly, air from a pronounced Alaskan/Canadian cold pool across the Atlantic over to Britain. In either case a generally southerly tracking jet but with lowest pressure to the N and NE is generally paramount:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119840115.gif

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119950302.gif

    If you don't have a cold enough source or long enough track over the Atlantic, you end up with only localised, marginal snow events:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119880208.gif

    Just some pointers for those looking ahead to next winter.

    Excellent info' TWS, I'll save this.

    Here's hoping **sigh**

    Autumn And Winter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Lots about a cold Arctic pool here, but this does not do us much favour in September. Can it hang around for 3 months? Brickfielder is predicting an active-atlantic driven autumn, which tends to suggest warm air pumped northwards in time for January. Even if it is still anomalously low in January, how likely is it that this pool will get blasted in our direction as opposed to Siberia, Scandinavia, Eurasia or even the Mediterranean?

    *sigh*

    Don't get yourself all excited again, you know it'll end in tears :rolleyes::)

    Autumn And Winter Lrfs

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Of all the winter forecasts issues last year I have to say that the NetWeather one was second only to the Met Office's. Too many forecasters allow 'hopecasting' to cloud there judgement but, thankfully, the team were sensible and realistic in there forecast. Hopefully this winters forecast will be the same.

    AM

    When's it due out ??? Oct/Nov' ??

    The Lingering Twilight And Noctilucent Clouds

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    As a family, we're lucky enough to have use of a friend's holiday cottage in the Kyle of Tongue (The flat bit on the North of Scotland - Caithness). I try & time a visit with the Sum' Solstice as the light is quite unbelievable.

    With the aid of a couple of coats it's quite possible to sit outside at midnight & read the paper. In fact, the local golf club have a midnight trophy that involves tee-ing off @ 10pm & playing thru' the night. Suns up again at 2am-ish.

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