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Posts posted by Turnedoutniceagain
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13 minutes ago, tom_f123 said:
The ‘rubbish’ GFS was right all along then
It's a computer model - literally nothing has happened yet
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16 new pages since I went to bed - must be an UPGRADE !!!
ICON's thrown in a shortwave to spice things up
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6 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:
Unbelievable this place sometimes.
emotions have gone from jubilation to Wrist slashing all for a T+168 chart, 1 week away.Lots of people seem to have forgotten that they're looking at computer generated predictions - nothing is cast iron. Chill out, there's literally nothing you can do about the upcoming cold spell.
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12 minutes ago, sheikhy said:
I think the one you posted is a different event!!the one you have posted is when the m11 got crippled im pretty sure
The M11 'event' was unprecedented
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21 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:
12zs overall are the best suite yet for longevity.
To illustrate, here are some highlights:
1) Ecm produces its best op run for what seems like ages, with a boxed in GH
2) JMA brings a snowstorm to S England
3) GFS
Beautiful wedge action
4) GEM, words not required
5) EPS mean, reverses the flattening trend from the last few runs and the anomalies are very good and very reminiscent of the seasonals.
Most importantly, the following shift in the eps mean in the extended does not do it justice! It’s one of the bigger ones I’ve seen ant that range. Although the flip from mostly mild swerlies to a dipole blocked/flatter set is still clear.
12z
0z
When you look through the members, the flip to ‘longevity’ is quite remarkable.Overall, a poor night for mildies, cockle warmers and gas bills tonight! Their time will come, but this evening is one for the crew…
The GEM is a thing of beauty
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12 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:
Looks to my eye brutal depth of cold flooding down into multiple directions in the Northern Hemipshere. Lovely to see.
A week away - ALWAYS a week away.....*sigh*
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Model conformity is what we're looking for, and so far they're all slowly starting to converge and agree.
It's a hesitant 'Game On' from me.....
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1 hour ago, Rob 79812010 said:Blimey, best charts for years, bbc and met and netweather forecasts all positive, so much potential. Shouldn't we be more excited?? Or are we hedging our bets as we've 'seen it all before'. Thing is, we have seen it all before with the models but often find the forecasters don't buy into it. They are now!!!
I'm still skeptical. I remember the great E'ly of Jan/Feb' 2006 - potentially an event to rival 1963 - a monster that literally disappeared from the charts with 36hrs to go. I'm still having counselling.
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It'll rain
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Overnight snow chances now gone from 70% to zero in 4hrs
#abc
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7 minutes ago, warrenb said:
Well take your pick
Low on Monday
GFS misses completely
UKMO, cross the south coast
GEM, cross the centre of the country
This is just 5 days away.
**throws chicken bones**
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25 minutes ago, Jacob said:One possibility in the long term is that we could get proper cold in December but we get stuck under high pressure which leaves us with getting cold weather but no snow which would be a disappointment
This is the best winter weather - high pressure, clear days, freezing nights. Perfect
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"Winter's over.....etc etc"
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On 22/11/2023 at 06:34, Windysun1 said:
Hi all,
Stupid question maybe but i thought i read somewhere that the antartic sea ice was increasing?
It was going against the grain of what the scientists were predicting.
Is this not the case any longer?
The Antarctic is about three weeks away from mid-summer's day, so I'll guess at decreasing at the moment.
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I think we've topped out at +8c for the day, it's all downhill now. Good chance of frosts in rural areas for the weekend
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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
It's an upgrade on yesterday's downgrade but not as good as before (I think??)