edinburgh_1992
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Posts posted by edinburgh_1992
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37 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
Im still concentrating on the weekend-
ICON is sharper through 78- with -8c now into the SE ( from -5c before ) so could see more in the way of snow along the ESE edge
Personally I'm very interested in the developments for this weekend. There is a fair chance that the colder air could last well into Sunday over Scotland and this could potentially bring a whole day of snow on Saturday to many.
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14 minutes ago, CoastRainbow said:
every year .. I will not go into Model thread .. i will not get my hopes up for snow and believe every roller coaster run
every year , I need to go into Model thread .. i need to know if it will snow ..
this is is my winter state of mind
Anyhoo weather is p!sh in Glasgow .. dark , gray and 7 degrees ..
Same in Edinburgh. I'm still optimistic for Saturday.
I use an Italian website to see ecmwf forecasts, it's actually quite accurate and has been right on numerous occasions where metoffice and BBC have failed. It also shows the height of the 0°C isotherm and the snow level.
Quite unusually, sea level temperatures are set to remain close to zero even though the 0°C level rises temporarily to over 2000 metres. If the 850temps manage to stay below zero, snow could continue throughout the day.
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29 minutes ago, More Snow said:
im in there with you.. my camera is ready for action. it can snaw in England but the problem starts when it hasnt snawed in London. if that dont happen the snaw dont count anywhere..
Snow at low levels in Scotland is quite rare, but our odds are still much better than London's. Especially with the heat island created by the city. So I guess we should consider ourselves lucky. Is anyone else from the Edinburgh area here?
GFS 18 not looking great, but I'm still confident that it will change. Let's hope to see some exciting updates tomorrow
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1 hour ago, edo said:
for sure.... great to see a scottish perspective in the model thread from yourself.... its very southern britain heavy so always interesting to see your posts pop up
Yes, I feel like I'm on my own in that thread. I hope it snows just in Scotland next weekend with rain in England so I can annoy them with some snowy pics
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1 hour ago, Ruzzi said:
Unfortunately it doesn't' look very promising on Thursday. Doesn't appear cold enough or indeed a strong enough flow for anything 'lake effect'. Having said that, the odd light sleety, snizzle shower along the east cost, especially the east coast above the firth of Tay should probably not be ruled out.
Lake effect needs a moderate to strong flow with isobars relatively close together and generally aligned across a body of water directed towards land. It also generally requires fairy low 850 hpa temps. Anything sub -10hpa is usually game on however it's not unheard of to get decent showers packing in off the sea in a strong flow when 850 hpa temps are slightly higher than -10.
Unfortunately from a lake effect snow point of view, on Thursday we have the below model outputs from both the ECM and GFS models:
The isobars that encompass the majority of Scotland shows that the flow is traversing over most of England prior to reaching us up in Scotland. Really we'd want the isobars aligned from the Scandinavia/Central Europe direction passing over the North Sea and across Scotland. Also the 850hpa temps this coming Thursday are struggling to breach -4/-5 by the looks of it. Ofcourse it is possible to get lake effect snow from the west or north west too but tends to be a bit rarer to get lake effect snow from this direction for a number of reasons but not unheard of and indeed, it did happen last winter.
For proper 'no expense spared' lake effect snow we'd want to see something akin to the charts from earlier this year which duly prompted our red weather warning:
(always worthy of another look these).
As for the weekend, it's all up in the air (or so to speak lol). Certainly appears to be increasing the snow chances the closer we get but so little margin for error with the weekend's set up and a very complicated one at that but definitely hopeful of seeing some snow somewhere in Scotland.
We'll see, the models are showing lower 850 temps with every run. If we manage to get -7/-8 (ecmwf is almost there) and a slightly more easterly flow, nothing should be excluded. Especially considering that sea temperatures are still quite warm. I find that models often underestimate lake effect snow.
During the mid November "easterly", even though forecasts and models were showing very weak precipitation, here in Edinburgh we had some pretty hefty showers moving in. Unfortunately it wasn't cold enough for anything wintry.
The latest ecmwf run is perfect for Scotland, with colder air holding onto us throughout Saturday and Sunday, coupled with heavy snow. Let's hope the run gets confirmed tomorrow, it's not miles away. I think models like GFS are over-estimating the Atlantic, it keeps getting pushed back and I reckon that Scotland can hold onto the cold air for longer
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I think eastern areas could see some snow showers already on Thursday in the eastern flow from "lake effect". Then Friday-Saturday we could see more widespread snow or sleet, but at the moment this remains very uncertain
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Seems like there's a pretty decent chance of seeing some snow in Scotland. Especially as the cold flow looks like it will continue well into Saturday up here, whilst milder air sets into England. I'd say about 50%. If the eastern flow is cold enough, we could even see some wintry showers feeding in off the north sea on Thursday-Friday
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Slight west-shift on GFS12 appearing
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44 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
If you’re north of the midlands with good elevation and east of the M6 then I reckon you should be preparing your nose shaped carrots .....if the blocking strengthens significantly then you can always post them down here !
BBC weather and metoffice are showing a lot of sleet next week in Edinburgh, temperatures around 2-3C during precipitation. Will be interesting, all we need is a slight further west-shift and that will be changed to snow.
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Pretty cold to our north-west and not that far either...
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Just now, Allseasons-si said:
U spot what i spot!
pockets of height's to the north!
Yep, and colder air from the west slowly reaching the UK in the long term
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Have you seen the latest CFS run for February averages? It's nice to dream once in a while
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1 hour ago, swfc said:
-3 AVERAGE IN DECEMBER????
The 30 year mean around the 19th of December looks like -3 to me.
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16 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:
That looks amazing!
Amazingly mild. T850s rising with every run. The average for Edinburgh is about -3 for December, not +3. Seems to cool off afterwards though. Also, I think that low will shrink a lot nearer the time, if it even passes over the UK.
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Still a chance to see some snow in the north. For example at T222 there are some really interesting uppers across northern England and Scotland.
That's in the long term though, after the HP leaves us around Wednesday, it's going to be rain for all, even on Ben Nevis with positive uppers
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4 minutes ago, mulzy said:
It's actually a pretty decent run - the best of the evening!
The block is certainly stronger, but since we're still on the west side of it, it looks like that low from the west will still move in and push the block NE
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1 minute ago, abbie123 said:
Can explain why please
I was being sarcastic, those temperatures are well above average, especially for the north of the UK. The cold air keeps getting shifted to the east at every run
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Lovely run from ECMWF
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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
Certainly nothing mild on the horizon, and plenty cold enough for the Scottish ski centres to look forward to.
Not particularly cold either, temperatures at 850hpa hovering around 0 or just under for Scotland. Certainly not cold enough to see snow at lower levels, just endless rain and gales especially for the scottish
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I have a strong feeling the Atlantic will win. I agree that January and February will be our best chance.
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GFS12 is turning out to be even worse, +2/+3 temperatures at 850hpa predicted for next Wednesday over Edinburgh... coupled with heavy rain. Wouldn't mind at least seeing some sleet or snow, but with SW winds it would be very unlikely
Mid-long term doesn't look promising either on any of the main models with endless lows moving in from the west.
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Looks like the blustery and wet weather is set to continue until 15-20th of December, excluding a short break between Sunday and Wednesday. As we properly enter into December, there is always a chance that some parts of Scotland could see sleet and snow at times down to low levels, but that will have to be confirmed nearer the time.
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9 hours ago, Norrance said:
Are you sure that the recent wet weather was Atlantic driven? Also not much evidence to suggest the rest of the month will be predominantly driven by the Atlantic?
Look again at the models to be honest, I'm not surprised, it is December after all.
Last December was much better, around this time last year we had a low of -9/-10 here in Edinburgh and currents were predominantly north-western, bringing sunny, but frosty days.
I was really hoping that the ridge would hold off the lows to the west this time, but the model runs this morning aren't at all promising.
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December looks like it will be dominated by the Atlantic, I can't really see a way out of it until January. Weather has been depressing in Edinburgh lately, today we had freezing rain in the morning and last week was just non stop rain and wind.
Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion 16/03/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
Feeling less optimistic to be honest. Ecmwf 12 is a downgrade, and gfs18 and GFS parallel 18 are showing uppers way too warm for snow. Looking at this for Saturday morning, there seems to be a pocket of warm air right above Edinburgh. Quite a weird situation, there is still time for it to be changed (hopefully!). Worst case scenario, we'll be getting a lot of cold rain as ground temperatures stay close to freezing throughout Saturday.