- Popular Post
Premiere Neige
-
Posts
497 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Premiere Neige
-
-
8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
It’s pretty dry... the slider just gives precip to Ireland sort of disintegrates apart and far SW all falling as rain there. There is some transient snow across much of country on Monday.
Not much point looking for snow on charts 6 - 8 days away....
-
1
-
-
7 hours ago, Optimus Prime said:
Time to wash that summer quilt by the looks of things.
Winter 2018/2019 - flush it down the toilet pan and never speak of it again.
Why are we flushing it down the toilet? Not even half way through yet!
-
Did I just walk into the doctors surgery by mistake?
-
1
-
-
28 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:
Not only southern Italy, anywhere east from the UK would be fine. Istanbul is known to receive some pretty impressive snowfalls and they are regular too. Or the Bulgarian black sea coast, the sea has even frozen over before and temps below -10C are common in winter.
Funny how Scotland is so far north, yet our winters are considerably milder than even the southern Balkans for example.
Not when you take into consideration the fact that Scotland (along with the rest of the UK) is on the edge of a large ocean whereas the Balkans are part of a continental landmass.
-
1
-
1
-
-
26 minutes ago, Purga said:
OK worth remembering:
Not all SSW's produce cold spells in the UK - they increase the chances of blocking and colder weather.
Not all SSW's are the same. This one appears to have been a 'displacement' type event followed by a split.
Stratospheric events do indeed take 2 to 3 weeks to completely impact the troposphere - if indeed they do...not all do.
The current MJO is now expected to propagate into a strong phase 6/7 which would tend to encourage a negative NAO by late January.
We've been in a moderate El Nino - which tends to produce milder first halves to winter in northwest Europe and 'colder' second halves. (This can be masked though by the general ongoing seasonal cooling which makes January/February colder than December anyway). This appears to have trended neutral recently.
We're at the bottom of the decadal solar cycle where colder, more blocked winter tend to cluster.One slight fly in the ointment is that the QBO has shifted westerly from easterly (which favours blocking i.e. cold) but hopefully it's being damped out by the other strongly favourable signals.
The strongest signal for easterlies from both GLOSEA and ECM has always been Mid January - February.
There are now tentative signs in the NWP of the disruptive effects of the SSW.So all to play for.
As I understand it there is a lag time for effects to be felt with regard to a switch in the QBO?
-
38 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:
This is a bit OT but after the stonking charts last night I want to just remind everyone what happened last year in the lead up to the BFTE. Last year because it’s most recent but those who aren’t new will know this is pretty standard while the models get a grip on a SSW.
SSW happened. Models took a while to show any response. For a while it looked bleak.
Then models started to show a BEAUTIFUL response...
Then literally one run/one day to the next the response would TOTALLY DISAPPEAR/DOWNGRADE.
and then appear again.
and disappear
and appear again.
I want to make a dirty innuendo but I’ll just allude to one instead.
My point is. Expect the next week to be a bloody rollercoaster and for hope to feel snatched away and then given back repeatedly.
So lots of ups and downs and jumping on and off is what you're saying? That innuendo is getting closer!
I think the fact that yesterday there was a sudden flip in the models in response to the SSW means we can expect to see these kind of runs increase in number but not every run at first.
-
1
-
-
1 hour ago, SJ NM said:
All this excitement about the latest charts, but from my (albeit inexpert) point of view I se no difference. All I see is more promise in FI but again, within the 240 hr time frame it's as you were.
You're a happy chappy aren't you?
-
39 minutes ago, colonelks said:
That 384 chart is almost as ridiculous as me meeting a fellow Netweather cold hunter on the train back from Derby in February.
If we manage to get close to that then happy New Year!
I met one last Sunday in Aldi car park repairing my car under the guise of an AA patrol man!
-
2
-
-
32 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:
With December being quite mild or very mild for some... The model output really needs to behave to get a below average winter you would think...I dont think even the Met predicted December to be so poor by predicting a below average as a reasonable possibility
As long as we get one or two cold snowy periods of a decent length I would take that. Not overly bothered if winter is above or below average. A below average month would do (preferably well below average). Hopefully models are beginning to pick up on a change...
-
4
-
-
30 minutes ago, legritter said:
Good morning gang , I am certainly looking forward to the next 9 weeks of meteorological winter and also March .just wondering when the main models really latched on to the cold weather last winter ,Feb March etc .I can remember a big night when HEY Presto we all went crackers . Keep the faith gang ,I have noticed as usuall ecm days 8 9 10 all over the place , STELLAS all round .
You beat me to it. Was just going to ask the same thing. I seem to remember it being pretty late on...
-
1 hour ago, Mokidugway said:
Not very scientific but talking to my family who run a farm reckon it's going to be cold soon from their understanding of the land and wildlife 70 years experience so who knows
Scientific doesn't always work anyway. A bloke in the pub who used to work for the met office told my friend to put a bet on a white Christmas. The wildlife might know more than the met office
-
1
-
-
3 minutes ago, MP-R said:
Looks like this Christmas will be milder than 2013 here. Both the 25th and 26th had maxima around 5-6C here with sunshine.
Frost and fog last night made it feel more seasonal. Don't remember specific days of 2013/14 winter but as a whole I remember it being relentlessly wet and mild. This winter has been frustrating so far but with an SSW recently beginning I think we are in with a shout of seeing more wintry weather in January and February.
-
The SSW only commenced over Siberia at the weekend. The effect of this will still be filtering through to the models especially given the 2 to 3 week time lag. Should we not give it a bit longer before calling time on winter?
21 hours ago, Optimus Prime said:This winter certainly ranks up there with the worst, that is away from Scotland and northern Ireland. It's nowhere near as bad as 2015, but I can't think of many poorer start to winters as this one
1/3 through, Will take something to rescue this one.
2013/14? That was mild and stormy all the Way through if I remember. And I could count the number of frosts on one hand.
-
10 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
if only it was guaranteed! then I wouldn't mind this mild Dec
As I understand it has been predicted for several weeks now along with a big drop in zonal wind speeds? Not a guarantee but must have a good chance?!
-
5 hours ago, iceman1991 said:
Thought you guys find this interesting gavsweathervids thoughts on current weather through dec regents that jan could be very interesting for cold weather fans link below
As a long time lurker (2009 I think) I decided to join in and this was to be my first post but you beat me to it. Oh well! Interesting that ECMWF and CFS both agree on height rises over the pole and into Greenland at week 6. No doubt a response to the predicted SSW....
Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The BBC Countryfile forecast used the exact same phrase regarding the week after next. Well, they actually said "very interesting" (If you like cold).