East801

It's fast becoming clear that any early season optimism for a cold winter is quickly diminishing by the day....blocking nowhere to be seen. A SSW likely in order to save this winter would be the favoured call currently.

Paul would you agree the signs are ominous for those wanting a cold winter? Whilst one of course cannot rule out the odd chilly/cold snap lasting a day or two the odds on a cold winter overall (statistically speaking and in real weather terms) look highly unlikely unless a number of highly respected models have got this very wrong? Statistically (depending on how much faith you put into these models) the odds on a mild and wet winter look the odds on bet currently.

Hopefully we can break some Feb warmth records, very possible. Early taste of Spring and a welcomed closure to a huge winter of let downs. Looking forward to warm and sunny days now, goodbye winter 2018/19.

You know snow and cold chances are bad in the UK when downtown Las Vegas has more snow than the UK on a winters day in Feb.

When we reflect back on winter 2018/19 (what winter), I think the most telling observation is how few stonking NWP outputs there has been. A continuous conveyor belt of average to poor runs on a daily basis. Even in winters with no pre hype or expectation there has been far more. A truly awful winter for cold and snow fans. Roll on summer 2019! A

I can’t recall a winter where almost every single major long range model has called this winter so badly. Their validity is at best mediocre. Far too much faith has been placed into this by many. Granted the SSW has raised many of our expectations markedly, sadly the results we were hoping for haven’t materialised. Not the winter many of us hoped for when the long range models were predicting such positive signals for coldies back in November. Time to look to spring now, let’s hope for some early warmth in the models in the next few weeks. Can we nudge a 14/15 deg by the end of the month...hopefully. A

Much better...those values will drop further if we can maintain the NE flow

Any early projections for snow totals tue night? Based on latest runs would say 5-8 cm widely across southern England ...likley to change

Uppers to east at -4...lack of cold out east sadly.

Running out of words for the ECM run- surely the chart of the winter at 216! Winter....we’ve missed you...welcome

Just viewed the ECM - falls off chair Did anyone order an Easterly...from frigid europe with love? WOW!

A frustrating start to the day across NWP, the Azores high is proving to be a real pain. Everything too far east today, let’s hope for a correction west as the day progresses and some early hints of HLB. A

Far too many knee jerk reactions today over a gfs run or two. we need to remember, the SSW is a slow burner unlike last year when results filtered down within 2 weeks. This will take longer, interspersed with milder interludes before I believe the onset of much colder weather end of Jan. Sometimes we need to remember these are computer systems digesting data from a chaotic atmosphere and results (gfs runs) will differ greatly every 6 hrs or so. The way forward is to take an objective view of all models and esembles and look for patterns, no two runs will be identical...far from it with such a chaotic atmosphere as present. Look at the bigger picture ...the blocks are slowly falling into place ...patience. A

Looking at the wintry scenes across Europe it’s really frustrating that we remain on the outer limits of this cold and snowy weather which has engulfed much of mainland Europe. The picture postcard scenes across Austria, Turkey and Germany really are quite something, feet of snow. Here’s hoping our time is coming...we all deserve it after such a patient first half of winter. Let’s hope the 12z can guide us closer .... A

Any update on the ECM EPS yet?

I mentioned a few days ago we would likely see a significant flip in the ensembles and an increase of eye candy charts for circa 20th Jan onwards in the coming days, I really couldn’t understand the despondency shared by a few. The atmosphere is in a highly chaotic state, this changes aren’t always immediate and dramatic across NWP. It’s all about looking at the bigger picture and this has for some time remained highly consistent if cold weather is your thing. All going to plan, if anything slightly earlier than originally anticipated. Expect to see UKMO cotton on to these changes in next couple of days...steady as she goes...winter is coming. A

And if by magic post the 20th is looking very rosey....I smell a big shift in the ensembles coming up A

Personally, I’m very encouraged by today’s developments. I mentioned yesterday all eyes to circa 20th Jan approx for a steep change and I’ve seen nothing today to change this. The GFS ensembles have been displaying some potent ensemble members over the last few days, these will continue to increase in numbers over the coming days. We need to remember the affects of the SSW are very much in the early stages and this may take a few more days to show up significantly across the NWP suites. I have a good feeling this time next week the model suites will be looking very appealing indeed. Keep the faith....winter is coming.... A

Morning All, Having analysed the ensembles over the last few weeks it’s clear to see far too much faith is being placed in these. Aside from the brief cool spell in December (failed easterly), the ensembles have continued to lead us up the garden path, myself included. We all know they have a tendency to flip at short notice but I can’t recall a year whereby we have experienced such dramatic shifts on such a regular basis. Whilst I appreciate many hold the ECM in higher regard than the GFS, the ECM and it’s ensembles have been equally woeful so far this winter. This all raises the question, with such a chaotic atmosphere at present how can we make any confident forecast over 5 days ahead, we simply can’t. I fully understand the despondancy shared by many, but if the last few weeks have taught us anything it’s very much that these models and their ensembles can and will change very quickly, and just maybe this will work in our favour for once. I have a feeling this week will herald some big surprises across the model suites, expect some wild swings and some big dips on those ensembles around the 20th and beyond. Winter is coming...keep the faith! A

Hi Mike- many thanks...long time follower of NW but new to posting. I am a lover of all things snow and cold...and check in hourly in the hope of good news on the model front. It’s been an unusual winter so far, expectations have been high since November when the seasonal models were showing blocking projections around Greenland. GLOSEA set the pulses racing in Nov and Dec and as a result many including myself have naturally been expecting some consistent churn of eye candy charts, which up until now have largely remained in the realms of FI. The SSW has created much excitement and anticipation, the results of which if any for our tiny island will play out in the next 2 weeks or so. What those results are for us is anyone’s guess at the moment, none of us can confidently predict this with any degree of assurance. Let’s just hope Mother Nature plays us the ultimate ace card and we can all enjoy the snowy results we all so richly deserve. Patience is a virtue I’ve always been told....surely our time will come and we can all look back on the year that tested our resolve to the max but finally rewarded us with the ultimate prize. A

Placing all our hopes on an SSW working to our advantage sums up the winter of 2018/19 thus far. I have seen zero cross model consistency on any potential cold spell thus far, the odd positive operational quickly downgraded within 24 hrs. The esembles have been equally frustrating, flipping regularly and offer very little positive consistency. The fact we are analysing a GFS chart at 300+ hours illustrates just how desperate things are right now. You can almost guarantee a 300 hrs chart will almost certainly not verify and will look completely different by the next run. Personally, I’m as surprised as many that we haven’t seen many nirvana charts with such positive background signals but hopefully that will change in the coming days. The atmosphere is highly chaotic currently and this is evidently causing the models all sorts of issues, however in the next 7-10 days we really need to be seeing some dramatic changes across the models to restore the hopes of NW members but also to save winter 2018/19 from the long list of non- descript British winters. Remaining hopeful for now.... A

Whilst many including myself are hoping for a snowy spell in the near future it’s clear to see we are going backwards here with any HLB chances. The background signals have for sometime looked positive but over the last few days we have taken a significant step backwards from where we need to be. Still remaining hopeful the current SSW works in our favour, if not we could be reflecting on a winter that promised so much but always reserved in the realms of FI charts.

We really seem to be stuck in a rut currently, small glimmers of light which seem to diminish quickly. Matt appears to be losing his enthusiasm from the last few days: