[Model banter and emotions]

Need the AMOC to hurry up and collapse…

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

18 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Interesting! Thanks so much for that

This should defo be a new tradition of saying thanks on here now.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

I mean  it could be dry, and it’s worth mentioning this if the ops show this, but like you said there plenty of evidence that it might not be.

a poster last week said a setup would bring 20cm of snow into the south east via streamers, but when confronted with a chart that showed nothing of the sort the same poster said this is what you would expect from this setup.

 Now the same poster is saying it’s going to be dry based purely on the GFS run contradiction previous stances.

 

Is he not just updating his interpretations along with the models? I always find his posts really easy to understand and also thorough. Normally don’t get involved in these to and fros but don’t want anyone to feel unvalued here. Very grateful to everyone who contributes their knowledge to this forum - it’s massively increased mine! 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Just now, Day_9 said:

I got photos of my helping my old man dig his hilman imp out of the snow - don’t know why, the wall of snow from our drive onto the road was almost level with the roof of the house

I know it’s slightly off topic… but still I liked this image and thought I’d respond with photos of our house in the 70s

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Can someone tell me in simple terms what is going on and why we’re so excited and how certain it is?

 

On a side note it has felt like snow is on the way here in next few days in the Pennines for about 48 hrs. I know that sounds ridiculous but it has

[The tipping point of the Atlantic overturning circulation]

Really interesting - thanks! 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

About 4 inches so far here in hills above Hebden Bridge (HX26JQ) at 240m. It’s been great fun. Looking at the radar it looks like we’re about to get a proper dumping - am I right (v casual user)? 
 

My kids were loving it today. School still open throughout too

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Snow settling in the hills above Hebden Bridge… but we’re at 250m here. Only a dusting presently and none on the roads

[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

I know it’s not that scientific… but the carpenter reframing our roof who has had his work based round weather for 30 years says “it’s going to be a long hard cold winter that we’re all going to remember”

just to add to positive vibes  

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Heavy snow in hills above Hebden bridge and all that stuff in north east looks to be heading towards us.... 250m

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

 

41 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

My dream one day is to live above 300m but in a valley bottom.

You then get almost all the extreme types of weather, somewhere like Keld in the Yorkshire Dales would be ideal which is a deep frost pocket at 330m asl.

Wow Keld looks lovely. Castle and an abbey aswell! And with names like "Crackpot" and "Butthouse rigg" you can't go wrong...  long way to the nearest job for me though! Work in the NHS. 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Now on our 4th day of lying snow.... feels like winter. When we were choosing where to bring up the kids my only criteria was that it must be over 200m elevation... now we're at 240 and I wish rightmove could rank homes by altitude!

(Hills above Hebden Bridge)

[Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas]

I'm a rare poster in here mainly as I just don't have enough knowledge or understanding to comment. These posts look really promising, but I've been over-optimistic before. 

What point can we look at models and say cold/snow is pretty much a definite? 2-3 days out? And so I guess all these lovely looking model outputs could still give us nothing if they're at 5-6 days?

Sorry for the low level post but it's nice to hear the real chances in lay terms... 

Regards

Ian

ps I live at 280m in the pennines so I'm hopeful....

[Yorkshire and E England regional thread 30 Jan 2019 onwards]

Interesting that met office isn’t picking up on this at all...

[Yorkshire and E England regional thread 30 Jan 2019 onwards]

Looking at the radar it looks like we’re going to get plenty of snow in Hebden Bridge today... but no sign of it on met office app... what do people think? 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

I know there’s a lot of negativity in here - is that a hangover from the amazing winter last year? Expectations a bit unreasonable? 

We’ve had more snow at our house in the Pennines this winter than we got in the whole of 2016-2017 winter. About 5 days of settled lying not melting snow so far as opposed to 3 that year. 

Even if we just keep getting these spells of snowy weather I feel like we’re still not having a bad winter... 

 

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH cheese, i might do OK, but some of the higher routes straddling west yorks/Greater Manchester (higher Oldham /Hudds etc) could be feet deep in snow in around 10 days..

I actually dont think thats going OTT.

At 300m near Hebden Bridge (Halifax way), that sounds splendid to me. Be nice to have this again... only got about a cm of snow lying currently 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

47 minutes ago, Kev smith scfc said:

 

Also going to make a big statement we better get use to ssw events because they will become more frequent as the planet warms up ( but more research needed on this one) so as the planet warms we will get colder winters.

I’m really interested in that last sentence. Could you or anyone else shed more light on this? 

I asked about this on the old thread where you weren’t allowed anything other than serious model chat but it was (appropriately) moved to the “learning” section and not be answered as far as I can see... 

However the opportunity to catch all the experts contributing to this thread is too good to ignore.

Structurally are we going to see more cold winters long term? Is the AMOC/Gulf Stream weakening by 15% real and is that  key driver of the Atlantic influence on our weather? 

I’d be really interested in this to know if my kids are going to see snowy winters as they grow up. We moved to the Pennines (300m elevation) largely because I love snow so much and wanted some harshness in winter. 

Thanks in advance and would love people’s thoughts...

 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Just now, Bazray said:

With respect, the way it was before was not working, to many off topic posts and banter on a thread that was for serious model discussion, now at least you can chat in a more relaxed way about the models or go to the other if you want a more detailed serious chat. Good idea imo.

I much prefer this style of thread as as a newcomer I found that I wasn’t able to contribute at all and it felt unwelcoming. This is much better in my opinion.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

48 minutes ago, IanT said:

Terrible performance? 

What is going to happen next week may well have changed. To suggest that a forecast updated by 48h more data is “terrible” is a viewpoint underpinned by an implicit assumption that the weather is a deterministic system in which no randomness is involved in the development of future states. A deterministic system being one that will always produce the same outcome from a given starting condition or initial state.

But I think that we all understand innately that weather is far from deterministic. There are chaotic elements - the proverbial light left on in Fairbanks etc. - which influence outcomes. As forecast horizons extend the scope for these to have an impact increases. Given a specific set of starting conditions, multiple outcomes are possible. The weather that we get is one realisation, but there may have been other equally plausible outcomes at the point the forecast was made.

Criticism of NWP outputs on this board (and others!) often follows a pattern. Posters will say that the models are "struggling to tie down" a feature, or that the models are "always poor in this type of setup". With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, posters will say the model was "wrong because it failed to pick up ... [height rises over the Azores?]".  Any verification gap is thus attributed to modelling weakness/failure, overlooking the possibility that something changed between the point at which the forecast was made and its realisation.

What is the point of all of this? I guess it's a plea for acceptance that the models aren't "searching for a solution". We shouldn't criticise them when they "flip-flop" from one outcome to another, especially where longer time periods are involved. There simply isn't one path that the models have to "lock-on" to. Weather has chaotic elements. If the models this afternoon don't show the extended cold spell they were showing yesterday it might not be because they are inaccurate. Something might well have changed!

NWP models are wonderful tools for forecasters. I'm sure that they have massively improved forecasting accuracy in recent years, and that these improvements will continue. But we should always remember that weather is not a deterministic system, and modulate our expectations and responses accordingly.

Really interesting post! Quite philosophical... thanks

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Just out of interest are those long term watchers (over decades) seeing any changes due to this “15% decline” of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (gulf stream) that we occasionally read about in the news? 

Wondering if that’s going to impact things in our lifetime or not? 

Assuming that without that we’d behave a lot more like a continental land mass and have a climate more similar to Moscow...?

Interest sparked by seeing people posting charts from the 80s etc. Massive amount of knowledge in here! 

(And at least I’m not complaining about no snow so it lightens the mood  )

 

 

 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

for the current ECM/GFS charts to be right, then these charts would need to be spectacularly wrong.  not impossible, but rather unlikely, its a game of odds and ill back these as being most likely .

 

Could you explain this more to those of us who are lay people and only have a very basic understanding? Thanks in advance

[Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion]

Heavy snow in the hills above Hebden Bridge  

Inch deep so far... justifies moving here 3 years ago...

[Model banter returns]

If it’s currently snowing lightly here already (260m altitude in the Pennines near Halifax) I’m guessing these models are good news over the next few days-2 weeks then? 

But not anything that looks like the 6-8ft drifts we had (and loved) last year?

I’ve read this thread for about 3 weeks before posting and feel I’m beginning to get the hang of things... but to translate into simpleton language we don’t have anything that looks like the sustained blast we had last year yet though do we?