CSC

Sunday evening Met Office website is suggesting a snow event for South East UK..

This GFS is an uttter embarassment now. So many times recently it's go badly wrong. -2 temps shown on a set up which will probably create -5 widely? Doesn't surprise me anymore.

I am not getting geared up for a snow event. I have studied the weather for more than 10 years. I am well aware at this point that 10 day GFS forecasts are fantasy world. But that isnt my point here. My point is that as we have a growing and increasingly probable chance of severe cold, we also have a growing chance of this cold air interacting with low pressure systems. It is therefore why we look out for new features and use our weather knowledge to make predictions. All 3 main forecasting models have a pressure system interacting with cold air at some point next week. It is not fantasy world to think that if cold air hits a low pressure system, snow will be created. It is simply just logic.

We are not talking about specifics. Our aim as weather enthusiasts are to spot features and make predictions. All 3 models predict a similiar set up. The possibility of a low pressure system next weekend interacting with cold air is just as likely as it is unlikely at this stage. Remain optimistic!

These temperatures show quite well the difference between the warm and cold air. This is definitely something to keep an eye on for next week. how quickly will this cold air move? As we predicted... a nationwide snow event looks set to happen if we can hold onto that air. .

and now we look to see how this low pressure system interacts with the cold air. My hunch is.. A SNOW EVENT.. but lets see on the next few runs...

Here comes that low pressure system again SW of the UK. Depending on the positioning of this, we could end up with spoils or a historic snow event! Most likely somewhere in between. If we can keep the cold air long enough before an inevitable temporary switch to slightly warmer air (i say warmer, maybe only 3c daytime temps), something memorable might be on the horizon.

Might be something worth pointing out - ECM and UKMO have a feature moving West to East late next weekend.. UKMO the super cold air holds out a little longer. Dependant on timings, this could create signficant potential for a nationwide snow event. Alas at this stage, its in the extended. But it is worth noting, this is the kind of set up where a reload can occur and a few of these events could happen over the space of a few weeks.

Ok this is playing devills advocate, but.. in the event that this ridiculous tropical storm ended up collding with severe cold in the UK, what kind of preci[ numbers are we thinking? Unprecedented if it verified..

a very good point, one to watch for sure!

I think overall the temperatures will be quite accurate, but these GFS ensembles don't look right to me. It seems like the one sheep has followed the pack. I wouldn't be surprised to wake up tomorrow with the average maximums being -2 for next weekend amd these numbers entirely shifted. It only takes a minor change for all these numbers to shift!

What I have noticed in recent times is the GFS is good at picking up anomolies or feature changes, where as the MetOffice is good at picking up the general direction of weather. This is why tonight makes for interesting viewing. The GFS has just forecasted some bonkers looking tropical storm. Is this a new feature, or just a blip? We will find out soon!

Icon 18z has temperatures widely -2 by 6pm this coming Thursday 8th December. GFS is the only one currently gone bonkers - I think its had too many pints watching the world cup!

To be fair to the MetOffice, it has stuck to its guns and tonight has trended colder. It hasn't moved for days. It's the most accurate one right now!

It did in the end.. but cunjured up some crazy tropical storm. What is going on with our weather?! This is bonkers. Tonights run really sets it up for an interesting UKMO and ECM 00z. I personally think the 18z is a blip. The ensembles will be worth a close watch..