[Cold hunt - models and chat]

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I said yesterday I think that was the low point, had we woken up today and the icon was still showing yesterday's 00z and 06z I would have thrown the towel in. 

What looks like happening to me here is for some un known reason the icon is picking out all the finer detail but really struggling to place it. 

Then the GFS ecm try follow this to some degree... Although I have no idea what that gfs 00z is all about.. 

I said ecm will be much better by 12z run later today and icon much improved by the 12z or 18z today.. That means maybe the ECM 00z tomorrow will be even better.. 

Not sure how to call gfs its really really struggling 

As for the other models, well jma some how is verifying just behind icon and ecm which is quite rare.. 

Agree, they tend to be heading in a better direction.. for now! When does ICON next come out?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

And ecm trying again lol. So don't rule out we might get it still

Do elaborate, I can't bear to look!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

Personally, after ICON jumping back on the cold band wagon earlier this morning, I feel quietly confident about the upcoming runs today.. I'm probably wrong but, we can only hope.

[Focussed Model Discussion]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I read your name as Jacksie first Answer is maybe, it has had a few 'wins' of that nature but hardly proved itself a true big hitter to join the big three. Call it Andy Murray compared to Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. That said, any of them could change their tune and clear the path to cold... Or not!

So basically what you're saying is ICON has a dodgy hip! thanks for the info, I guess we wait and see 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, snowfish1 said:

When's it out please 

 

When's ecm out 

A matter of minutes 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, Jake Strickland said:

Yes fingers crossed ECM out soon we shall see

I've been waiting since 3am so it better deliver!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

49 minutes ago, Jake Strickland said:

Intersting gfs run predominantly a cold run but don't like the evolution of it if im being honest I reckon high pressure is going to move over the U.K bringing more of the way of South westerlies but hope I am wrong! P.S ICON has certainly upgraded overnight!

ICON looks not perfect but very promising to me, let's just hope other models agree with the trend. There's still some time to claim a victory for this week.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

 

 

@Jackski4 ECM comes out between 6-7am/pm mate

Just enough time to make some food and cross my fingers then!

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Not much to comment on this morning, no change unfortunately... seems like no matter what we do we can’t rid ourselves of that stupid PV to our NW, that along with the most stubborn AZH I’ve ever seen.

Is the ECM out yet?

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

This place is quiet, I know it's early but can you all wake up and look at weather models with me please, I have no friends!

[Focussed Model Discussion]

1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

It doesn't quite make it this time but some significant short term changes there that could make things interesting again.

Down to the other models now.

As far as I'm aware it was ICON that picked up on the changes against an Easterly a day or so ago then the other models followed suite.? So potentially if ICON wants to change its mind it could be game on for this week again. 

 

Don't mind me, I'm a complete novice just here for the ride!!

[Focussed Model Discussion]

2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

That's the 00z, some potentially significant short term changes.

We live in hope! Let's pray the next set of runs pick up on it...

[Focussed Model Discussion]

2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Give me hope ICON!

IS that recent??

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

2 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

mentally prepare yourself for the UKMO to follow the rest of the models in letting us down, then it wont be such a shock to the system, lol

No way, I'd rather build up all hope and expectations and then have my hopes and dreams come crushing down! haha

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

1 minute ago, smith25 said:

you wait.. the ecm will switch back to the colder outlook while the ukmo switchs to less cold again.

The way things are going, I wouldn't be surprised!

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Not quite sure what to do with myself as I wait for the next UKMO run... Nervous times ahead 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

We still have the 12Z, the ECM and the (highly anticipated) UKMO later on today. There's still time you guys, in the words of Michael Jackson, KEEP THE FAITH!

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Welcome to the madness. 

Try having a play around with Metiociel

Global Forecasting System (GFS)

 GFS Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 0330-0445 | 06Z 0930-1045 | 12Z 1530-1645 | 18Z 2130-2245 (GMT)

00Z 0430-0545 | 06Z 1030-1145 | 12Z 1630-1745 | 18Z 2230-2345 (BST)

Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

 GEFS Viewer

 (+/- 10 mins)

00Z 0550 | 06Z 1150 | 12Z 1750 | 18Z 2350 (GMT)

00Z 0650 | 06Z 1250 | 12Z 1850 | 18Z 0050 (BST)

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

 ECMWF Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 0600-0700 | 12Z 1800-1900 (GMT)

00Z 0700-0800 | 12Z 1900-2000 (BST)

United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO)

 UKMO Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 0500-0600 | 12Z 1700-1800 (GMT)

00Z 0600-0700 | 12Z 1800-1900 (BST)

United Kingdom Met Office FAX (FAX)

 FAX Viewer

 (approximate)

00Z 1030 | 12Z 2230 (GMT)

00Z 1130 | 12

HAHA thankyou, happy to be a part of it all. Will be watching all models with anticipation and dread!

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Hi guys, I'm Jack. I've been stalking these forums for maybe 2 years now and I finally thought I'd register and bless you all with my presence. 

 

Praying for the GFS later on today, it all looked and felt so promising yesterday, hope the ECM sorts itself out on its next run. What time does the 6z and 12z update? Thanks guys