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josh-weather

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Everything posted by josh-weather

  1. josh-weather
    GFS 06z and 00z both are warm outliers in the ensembles. The ensembles have quite a cluster of runs colder than average further north. Less so shown below for London but still the OP is way up at the top.
  2. josh-weather
    blizzard81 yes you're right probably was a bit harsh. Thanks!
  3. josh-weather
    blizzard81 Said with confidence, but why?
  4. josh-weather
    @TEITS An outlier compared to the ensemble members though - I thought the point of the control was to see if resolution was having an effect. If the op and control are the same then resolution isn't affecting the ensemble outcomes, which I'd take as reinforcing the outcome of the ensembles overall - which are mostly mild for that date. In other words the fact op and control match is an indication that the ensemble as a whole might be decently reliable. Please somebody explain where I'm getting this wrong, everything I learnt I learnt from this place
  5. josh-weather
    Snow aside, I can't really see much difference between today and yesterday. Still going to be cold, not dramatically so but nothing much different to what has been showing for a while. Snow wise isn't it partly a matter of seeing what turns up anyway? edit: Fair enough, the low did move south again - quite a shame for southern regions if that's what happens.
  6. josh-weather
    But model performance hasn't dropped... Has it?
  7. josh-weather
    Here you go (Available here if you were wondering!)
  8. josh-weather
    If I'm reading it right, higher is more accurate. And it is showing the day 10 accuracy, so for example on the 17th, how accurate were the forecasts for the 27th compared to what a really happened on the 27th. There's a big dip at Christmas which is because there is less data available on Christmas day, meaning the forecasts made on that day have lower accuracy. It is showing specifically accuracy of 500hpa anomaly.
  9. josh-weather
    Latest from EC46. So it moved like the EPS did. Though I'm definitely not qualified to say what the implications are! https://charts.ecmwf.int/permalinks/mean-zonal-wind-at-10-hpa-extended-range-forecast-64400
  10. josh-weather
    The ECM runs out to 10 days, I thought we wouldn't see effects from the potential SSW until the very end of the run or afterwards, and certainly not at all a week or two ago?
  11. josh-weather
    Has anything really changed that much since yesterday? You folks are the best but I swear this thread could be a case study in crowd dynamics I'm waiting for the 46 https://charts.ecmwf.int/permalinks/mean-zonal-wind-at-10-hpa-extended-range-forecast-39219
  12. josh-weather
    In this case I think it was just the 12Z not the 18
  13. josh-weather
    To be fair it doesn't have to go all the way across the continent to end the cold spell in the UK!
  14. josh-weather
    RTE reporting more than 100,000 homes and businesses in Ireland without power due to the storm! More than 100,000 properties without power due to storm WWW.RTE.IE More than 100,000 homes and businesses are without power this morning due to Storm Debi, an ESB spokesperson has said, as a Status Red wind warning remains in effect for...
  15. josh-weather
    Now that I'm not sure of! It does say "GFS / NCEP / US National Weather Service" when you're in the wind overlay to be fair, not just GFS. But I had always assumed the actual wind map (rather than the over animations it can overlay) was GFS. The source code is available so maybe it would be possible to see exactly what it does.
  16. josh-weather
    Doesn't nullschool just display the GFS model though (for wind anyway)? It won't update each hour, it will just show whichever hour you choose from the latest run it has, I think? Edit: As others have said!
  17. josh-weather
    It doesn't really matter though, its basically all one set of impacts. It makes more sense to call it one thing - the technicalities are less important than the consequences.
  18. josh-weather
    Wow, that's really bad
  19. josh-weather
    To be honest with the speed at which things are changing, things that seem permanent might totally change any moment. The trend is gonna be for less cold overall but maybe more extremes including cold extremes, so you never know. My one positive (more like consolation prize!) from global warming!
  20. josh-weather
    GFS 00z Op and Ens both show cooler for your location on Sunday compared to Saturday. I've read BBC's provider primarily use ECM but who knows! The 00z Op run is widely much cooler on Sunday. Just one run, etc etc. But the Ensemble mean is also lower. Let's see what the 06z says.
  21. josh-weather
    What is GDSM? I can't find any reference to it except for here
  22. josh-weather
    That's the forecast, not the radar!
  23. josh-weather
    I guess it's probably more complicated than this (and I'm just going by what others have said here) but I thought Op and Control aligning was an indication of the validity of the ensemble run? I.e. that the result wasn't much affected by the different resolution. Which would make both the Op and Control outliers and if reality is slightly different to their (same) inputs we're more likely to end up closer to the ensemble mean? Anyway no complaints here, we have lots of nice cold weather coming either way
  24. josh-weather
    There is a human check - professional forecasters do not just present a run as fact and will certainly not just take them at face value. The fact that us normies can also see them is nice transparency and a service to us all. It's really a great thing that we have access to so much raw output and can try and make our own forecasts from it - and if we do so, that necessarily has to include deciding what is or isn't realistic in the output. Edit: and if someone in NOAA decided not to release a run on the basis of one low, what would the effect be on all the other forecasters internationally looking to use the model? They can't just pull a run on their own judgement. It is a model with international coverage and use.
  25. josh-weather
    Isn't this just a result of chaotic atmosphere Vs attempts at prediction? It can be seen with ensemble runs too, a widening envelope of possibilities into the future, because we can't really predict well out there. Individual op runs can vary just the same, its just that we experience them one at a time and fixate on the very cold ones while binning the very warm ones. The wildest of weather will always be more likely to show up in the distant reaches of FI, surely. Just because of the mechanics of how this whole thing works. Meanwhile theres a nice more seasonal spell coming up, further cold in the ensembles and who knows we might get lucky.
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