Thunder and Lightning
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Posts posted by Thunder and Lightning
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I really hope there will be some good thunderstorms for all of SE England, Arpege seemed to favour MCS.
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5 minutes ago, Harry said:
GFS really quite shabby for Tuesday/Wednesday (showing brief thundery potential for EA during the morning). However, WRF-NMM much more optimistic in terms of MUCAPE flooding in from the SE...largely limited to the SE quarter. Also keen to break out convective precipitation with it. Assuming this is what the MetO is favouring in terms of its warnings.
Yeah, the ECMWF shows thundery rain throughout Tuesday night and Wednesday early morning but not any signs of the afternoon thunderstorms that the UKMO are suggesting. Hoping that sufficient daytime surface heating could trigger some thunderstorms by afternoon/evening and if any storms persist they may have a chance of becoming severe as bulk shear looks to increase. Still hoping for a very unlikely scenario of extremely heavy rain due to an MCS Tuesday night with strong winds and then discrete severe thunderstorms later on Wednesday.
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Praying for some goodness on Wednesday
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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
Can't see anything from west Hull unfortunately, just a few dark clouds in the far distance. We got a bit of squally rain on the back edge of it.
Sun is back out now, hopefully that can spark up some storms later like yesterday afternoon / evening.Yeah, I think today has generally been a bit underrated.
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50 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
Perhaps, there is a risk we could be too far North though (London could do well). An upgrade to amber would occur if there is more confidence on where the storms will form.
As far as this evening goes, may be some more decent storm potential as CAPE values are similar to yesterday.
Yeah true. On Today that storm passing to the south of Hull looks interesting and potentially supercellular, Can you see anything rotationwise or on that front?
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Wednesday looks like it could hold some promise! Met Office have issued a yellow thunderstorm warning for Wednesday and Tuesday which is quite far in advance for a thunderstorm warning, I think an upgrade to Amber is possible further on?!
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system moving into Wells looks interesting
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heavy showers now developing near front! Hope to get some minor action
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13 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:
Wednesday is looking juicy.
I hope I will actually get some of that juice where I live (unlike most of the time)
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Looks like Wednesday might hold some potential!
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It looks like Wednesday might hold some promise!
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A place to discuss upcoming storms!
Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Yeah I was thinking that the main action would have happened by now. Hopefully the strength of the thunderstorms will not be affected!