Bradley in Kent
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Good morning all and Merry Christmas! Hope the storm yesterday didn't cause too much damage for you. Thoughts also to those who were flooded.
With regards to the current outputs, It seems to me we're entering a high risk high reward scenario.
The Atlantic is livening up but where will that energy go? If it goes down towards the Med then we're on to a winner, but it could easily (and probably will) end up with us and all back to square one.
In addition to this, we're looking at a potential SSW, which as we know can do massive favours for cold weather fans but equally scupper any chance of cold.
We could see lows streaming into the Med with major blocking above aided by SSW, or we could have lows hitting us with a displaced vortex over Canada.
I'm still new to interpreting models so this next week will be a good learning opportunity even if it does end in major disappointment.
All the best!
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57 minutes ago, Portsmouth Sun said:
Perhaps not zonal, but a lot of people will end up with egg on face. Lots of people banking a D10 chart ten days ago are now banking a D10 for ten days times. It's a never ending chase for people and before you know it spring will have sprung.
When I come into Netweather I have a breif look at the 10 day forecast just to get a sense on what's coming up before having a look at the models.
9 times out of 10 you'll see the blue below freezing 'feels like' boxes in 5 days time and think 'mmm something wintry might be on its way'.
3 days later I'll come back and wonder if those blue boxes are now in 2 days time, but nope, they're still in 5 days time... Then the models will show a much watered down version as time gets closer. Normally this will go on and on until you end up realising its spring! Obviously there are exceptions to this most recently in February 2018, but I've learnt that chasing cold is a frustrating and disappointing experience. I do enjoy the nowcasting side of snow events when they do occur!
Fingers crossed for next week (y)
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9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
Were they? Them ens look pretty unimpressive to me they did show it milder towards mid month but nowhere to this extent. We had synoptics which looked very good, but the cold air was severely lacking what you see on ground would disappoint. I’ve not once seen solid evidence of a proper cold spell this month, and still waiting. In the outlook the air which is potentially accessible is colder so I suppose that is more interesting.
Getting the cold air cold is a start I suppose, you need the beast first if you want a Beast From The East!
I see your point about the ens but I'm sure you'll agree with me that 'cold' spells (whatever setup) have and always will be on the back foot. A mild to very mild outlier means there is a well trodden route to that scenario which we are in now.
Anyway, I'm going to give the model watching a rest for a few days as we go through this mild spell. Fingers crossed for something more interesting as we head into Christmas and New Year!
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Good morning all, really informative posts as ever!
Yes I'm not a fan of watching for cold further than 3 days off.
Here's the ensemble from the start of December, we had a potential snow event round the corner and loads of models were pointing to a real cold spell. I was gradually getting sucked in when, oh... uh oh... a mild GFS outlier popped up!
Quite simply the Atlantic is always trying to fight back and the models are very familiar with its' moves. This means that if even one or two runs show what we have today, they're probably right!
Look at it this way, less money on heating!
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I'd like my spaghetti clumped together below zero degrees, which sounds awful to eat I'll add!
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16 minutes ago, Bradowl said:
Only thing certain is that it will get dark at night.
Haha, round here even that's not a given! The super bright LED streetlights and people buying floodlights means that when we have low cloud it's like dusk the entire night!
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17 minutes ago, Snow lover 2020 said:
What people don’t seem to understand is. America, Canada and all other places get heavy snow every winter. Even Australia had snow this season to lower levels. So if it’s global warming why is not affecting these countries? Just makes me laugh how everyone says it’s “climate change” when we get loads abnormal amounts of snow, and then say it’s “climate change” when we get zero snow. What is it gonna be? It’s called WEATHER
Good evening on this cold(ish) dreary day!
The likes of America, Canada and rest of Eurasia have their winter snow with temperatures way below freezing a lot of the time, so even in a warmer world they'll still get snow, just not as cold but still cold enough. Say for example, if you raise the average winter temperature say 3C, a place like the UK which typically has snowy days around 0C will no longer see snow. Somewhere like Canada however will get away with it, as their snowy days are often below -3C so a 3C rise, whilst noticeable, will still result in snow falling and lying. Obviously when talking averages and figures it doesn't quite work like that what with variability, but I trust you get my drift!
Even if the planets' climate stayed the same, it would still be a massive task to get a handle on the complex system of weather! I'll leave that there as there is a Climate Change thread (which I'll look at), but following the trend of UK winters I'm keen to make the most of any snow we do get!
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Must say the bar for winter is as low as it will go meaning even a dusting that lasts for 4 hours is an improvement.
That Met Office article is quite depressing but we knew that anyway. A winter like last year will be the norm, but at least the other 3 seasons will get more interesting!
QUICK EDIT: The fact our winters are already mild means any last cold percentile will quickly go. Northwestern Europe has already lost the most 'snow days' compared to other places because those snow days were already marginal
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2 hours ago, snowlessayr said:
Looks a tad marginal to me
On a more serious note, although unlikely to verify we do continue to see heights rising up towards Scandi or Greenland at FI on the GFS. if your wanting deep cold it is pattern you continue to want to see, if there is one decent thing about the GFS is that it can spot trends so at least it is something to keep an eye on for the next few runs. I know some people tend to be pessimistic when models show cold but just remember how awful last winter was and enjoy the ride.
Although I am fairly young, I have been reading this thread for many years and it is massively helped improve my understanding of model watching. I decided to start posting now, finally. Some extremely knowledgable posters on here, thank you for all your insights. I know this place gets very heated at times but I think for most of us watching the models hoping for some cold and snow is a massive escape from the world that we live in at the moment.
Thanks
Totally agree with this! I began looking the models a long time ago without realising the learning potential on reading the forums! Makes me wonder why only this year but I'd probably say the content 'looked' a bit heavy for a 14 year old!
With regards to the latest models, a bit disappointing that the cold runs from last week aren't coming into fruition. Going to keep a close eye though with what that Russian High does and what with whispers of a warming stratosphere!
A Beast From The East over Christmas would be just perfect! (I am geared up for disappointment mind)
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From November to March all I do when looking at synoptic models is think 'C'mon, merge, MMEEERRRGGGGEE!'
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Nothing in Maidstone this morning but it's good to see winter having a go so early on Hope those of you who have it enjoy the scenery this morning!
Always the nature of snow even in less marginal events, some get a treat some don't - many o time where Maidstone gets snow and Herne Bay has nothing for example.
Welcome to Winter ❄
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Yeah snow is great so long as you're not at work!
I remember January 2017 where Kent had a surprise bout of snow with a sudden drop: left work at 5.30 with 6C, half hour later as I got home it was 1C and dumping it down.
Interestingly that night it stayed above freezing the entire night but still managed about 3cm of lying snow!
Will it happen tonight???
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I much prefer looking at the models on a short term basis and certainly enjoy phrases like 'disruptive snow'!
January 2016 and February 2019 have left a scar on me regarding upcoming cold spells. As far as I remember most models and the Met Office were showing Beast From The East scenarios only to totally evaporate. The mild outlier verified. We have one now which will probably come true...
Anyway, back to the now / T+48 hours
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Good afternoon all, hope all is well whichever Tier you are in!
As is often the case, the upcoming snow forecast is a real knife edge scenario, but it seems this time even narrower than normal. I'll certainly be looking at the traffic cameras and radar.
If it pulls off it would probably go down as a miracle snow event! After all, its early December!
My feeling is the North Downs and Chilterns will wake up to a wet dusting for a couple of hours. I hope I'm wrong though!
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Trend is your friend, although because cold weather goes against the tide I would put more bets on the 3 mildest runs vs the three coldest runs.
As others have said, if just a few models / runs predict Atlantic dross, they're 9 times out of 10 correct in the end.
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Good morning, a nice set of charts for Christmas although as we know it's still some way off yet (despite the amount of people with their decorations up already!)
I'm hoping the big day itself will bring some sun which to be fair it normally does Even in the worst of winters like 2006/07, 2013/14 or last year for example it was still cooler and sunnier. Most likely between low pressure systems.
A lot of people are excited about the current outlook, which is of course way better synoptically compared to last years super PV, raging Atlantic setup.
Fingers crossed that things keep the Atlantic in check. I'd love to be walking my Christmas breakfast off with that crunching snow sound and cold air on my face!
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Correction: Astronmical Autumn started off colder than average. Meteorological Autumn started off with a hot spell early September
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2 hours ago, Lincs Observation said:
Morning all
i have to get this off my chest and my not so much a moan but more an observation is the yearly winter enthusiast in regards to snow fall.
Every year for the last ten or so I have been on this site frustrate me immensely by stating the obvious, what I mean by this are comments like the uk will see snow only to be followed up with Scotland, higher parts of the NW etc etc.
personally I can’t get excited like some on here if snow is forecast where generally this is a given every winter. I live in one of the lowest elevations in the country here in the fens. Now if the models started to produce charts (like in 2010) for snow in the areas we don’t see it on a regular basis then I could get excited as would many of us on here.
So please a plea from me look for signals of widespread snow that could impact the country, this would be newsworthy not snow at the top of a mountain where no one lives and has little impact unless your a skier.
LO
Good morning,
Yes I'm probably in a similar camp where I posted a while ago how winters are becoming the UKs 'worst' season for seasonal weather. Summers are becoming the season to look out for seasonal weather! (especially in the South and East)
With regards to Autumn 2020: boring... No real change of weather from end of September as it started off colder than average transitioning to warmer than average as the season went on. Very dull too although today the sun is out!
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This is much better than say a month ago and indeed this time last year although the bar has been set very low (if this was 2011 there would be disappointment from the coldies!)
Still, the uncertainty in the models is a sign of a more slack Atlantic with more ebbing and flowing.
More ebbing and flowing of course means less Westerly winds!
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BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico???
I'm almost certain that wouldn't have had any impact, however what I don't know is whether high pressure to the North is caused by less Atlantic activity or if its the other way round?
If the PV was normal and no SSW occurred then WOW! I'd love to know what to look out for!
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Love reading and listening to people's memories of December 2010!
As others have mentioned this month was during a wider period of more blocked synoptics really running from late 2008 to mid 2013.
I was 16 at the time, and easily recall being up at 6am super excited to ski and sledge. We didn't have that many days off school, but break times and after school were a right laugh!
Where I'm a tad sad that we'll never see a December like that again, I'm grateful that I've experienced how cold a December can get at what was a good age to enjoy it!
Oh yeah and second white Christmas on the bounce ❄
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I Don't remember that episode in December 2011 at all but the forecast video shows why!
Definitely would prefer cold and snowy weather in the early stages of winter. The weaker sun doesn't melt frost / snow compared to February and the short days feel brighter with a covering of snow.
Give me December 2010, January 2010 and February 2019
I do say this with a well insulated house mind.
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Yes Autumn 2020 started off well but has turned into a very drab one with the exception of last week. Even the foliage hasn't been very vibrant although most of us knew it wouldn't be great given the dry spring, topsy turvy summer and cyclonic conditions in October!
If you had to ask me what is my 'least favourite' time of year it would be late November early December. Mainly because the colours have gone, as dark as January and not yet into cold season.
Oh yeah and premature Christmas themed media, love Christmas but not in the mood for jingle bells on the 17th November!
Enjoy your evenings all, I'll be watching famous people having a hard time with cockroachs in North Wales later!
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8 hours ago, damianslaw said:
The charts do suggest a strong jetstream, but instead of the trough positioning itself to our NW, the core is further east to our north. This can happen with a buckled jet, wavy, periods of cold and mild zonality, with the former having the upper hand.
All hinges on position of jetstream, and it suggests to me quite a big if interference from tropical activity, not indicative of an entrenched La Nina state, enough to shake things up, just as we have endured so far this November, albeit the trough has sat to our west, but with greater la Nina forcing, trough likely to be pushed further east.
Thank you @damianslaw that's very useful and informative (and gives some hope for winter!)
Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Living in Kent on highish ground I'm reasonably happy with the climate although if I had my own way I'd have something like Eastern Canada.
Compared to the rest of the UK, Kent still gets some snow in Winter (especially from an Easterly) but has way better weather in Summer.
I'd rather have less snow but better and longer summers. I feel sorry more my relatives who live near The Wirral, no snow in winter and terrible, terrible summers