Raindrops

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I'm surprised this hasn't been posted up yet as it is a bigger player in meteorology worldwide. Geneva, 3 May 2023 (WMO) - The likelihood of El Niño developing later this year is increasing, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This would have the opposite impacts on weather and climate patterns in many regions of the world to the long-running La Niña, and would likely fuel higher global temperatures. The unusually stubborn La Niña has now ended after a three-year run, and the tropical Pacific is currently in an ENSO-neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña). World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

Still only 2% chance of a Tornado Storm Prediction Center May 19, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

19 May 2023 Met Éireann has announced that it is replacing the weather radar located at Shannon Airport to install a brand-new weather radar system with upgraded technology and capabilities. The Shannon weather radar is part of the national weather radar network, which currently consists of two weather radars, one located at Shannon Airport and the other at Dublin Airport. This weather radar network provides a steady stream of information 24 hours a day, 365 days a year via the Met Éireann website and app, and is used to provide information on the location and intensity of precipitation across Ireland. The new weather radar system in Shannon will provide enhanced precipitation measurement capabilities. This will result in benefits for Met Éireann forecasting services and for the rainfall radar maps offered to the public. More information at Met Éireann

Got some pink/purple lightning going on in some streams.

Interesting that Met Eireann and Net Weather radar never picked up two moderate showers (enough to soak your clothes while walking in it) over my location Edit: Looks like lag, Met Eireann is catching up.

Storm Chaser Vince Waelti

Derek Smith

Oh, com'on Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Mesoscale Discussion 818

Live Storm Chasing LIVESTORMCHASING.COM Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand. Nick Busby

Dr. Timmer is on it. 997 WFUS54 KAMA 182315 TORAMA TXC375-190015- /O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0007.230518T2315Z-230519T0015Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 615 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2023 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL POTTER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS... * UNTIL 715 PM CDT. * AT 614 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VALLEY DE ORO, OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF AMARILLO, MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... AMARILLO AND VALLEY DE ORO. Tornado HQ

Hmm maybe, maybe not. Mesoscale Discussion 815

@Nick L Here you go The Future of Supercells in the United States Results reveal that supercells will be more frequent and intense in future climates, with robust spatiotemporal shifts in their populations. Supercells are projected to become more numerous in regions of the eastern United States, while decreasing in frequency in portions of the Great Plains.

SPC AC 181229 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind gusts may impact parts of the southern Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, and the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening. ...West TX/OK... Weak to moderately strong westerly mid-level winds are present today from the Great Basin eastward into the central/southern Plains, with several weak/subtle shortwave troughs embedded in the flow. Strong heating is expected to occur today from the southern TX panhandle southward, helping to form a weakly focused surface dryline from near Amarillo southward to the Big Bend region. Most overnight CAM solutions suggest that low clouds persist through much of the day in the central/northeastern TX panhandle, leading to a relatively strong baroclinic zone across the region. This boundary is likely to be the focus for strong/severe thunderstorms by late afternoon. Despite weak forcing mechanisms, scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to build in vicinity/west of the dryline and move into the moist/unstable axis. Gusty winds will be possible in the stronger cores throughout the region. Enhanced low-level shear/convergence in vicinity of the baroclinic zone may result in more organized storms over the TX panhandle during the late afternoon and evening, where RAP forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs to support supercell structures. Hail and damaging winds are the main threat, although a tornado or two is possible. Therefore have added a small SLGT risk for that region. ...Eastern CO/Western KS... Easterly post-frontal low-level winds are expected today over much of eastern CO and western KS, maintaining 50s dewpoints across the region. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over the foothills and spread into the adjacent plains, with some interaction with the DCVZ. Forecast soundings in this area show MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and 25-30 knots of deep-layer shear. This suggests some potential for organized clusters of storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ...MN/WI... An upper trough over Manitoba will track southeastward today, with its associated surface cold front sagging into southeast MN and central WI. Scattered thunderstorms will form along this front by mid-afternoon and track across parts of central WI and northeast IA. Strengthening winds aloft and strong heating ahead of the front will support gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cores. The primary severe threat will only last few hours this evening due to a narrow instability axis and the onset of diurnal cooling.

I've just done a case of spoke to soon, but a small area has a slight risk today. Could be El Niño??? Jet Stream is too far North?? The plains are drier, hence the shift to the East.

Day 3 outlook looks good (so far) :), happy and safe chasing

Oh looks interesting, I'll give this a read during my spare time, busy training for network engineering at the moment, I look forward to it as AI will be more involved now without a doubt. I'll give an input about the halting of AI.........Elon Musk cough cough.

I wonder if he will sell footage for this ... Twisters, aka Twister 2, Gets Summer 2024 Release Date MOVIEWEB.COM The Twister sequel will land in theaters in 2024. Best night ever. Only 2% chance of Tornados tonight and tomorrow, and the foreseeable future looks like a lull. Anyway of to watch a film, have a good evening all.

Old news, but does anyone else think that the halting or slowing down of AI is a good/bad idea?

I've been subbed to Dani for some time now, each vlog has wonderful videos and photography, from squirrels to the aurora borealis go check her out, you won't be disappointed. Dani Connor Wild

You cleaned the camera in the nick of time, the reversed square root symbol lightning was awesome, you could almost see it coming up from the ground.

Oh, that's handy, not too far from Kansas, over two weeks is good for a chance, may the shear be with you, have a Gooden.