Only a 2% chance of Tornados today.
SPC AC 141229
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS....
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts and hail are possible today across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley.
...MO/IL Vicinity... Morning water vapor loop shows the upper low that has resulted in severe storms over the Plains states the last couple of days has weakened significantly, and is now a poorly defined shortwave trough beginning to track southeastward into northern IL. As this happens, a weak surface cold front will also sag southward into MO/IL. CAM solutions suggest scattered thunderstorms will form along/ahead of the front by early afternoon. Storms should build southeastward along the low-level theta-e/CAPE axis into southern IL. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and the confidence in organized severe storms today is not particularly high. Nevertheless, the combination of a moist/moderately unstable airmass and linear forcing mechanisms along the front may be sufficient for a few bowing structures posing a risk of locally damaging winds and hail.
..Hart/Gleason.. 05/14/2023