Raindrops

Interesting forecasting today, what stands out the most is for funnel clouds, keep those eyes peeled.

Connor Croff Insane

The inflows are amazing in this system (supercell). live weather map | tornado hq WWW.TORNADOHQ.COM In a tornado warning? Use our tornado tracker map to see if a tornado might be headed your way.

I'm on three chasers including Reed, all are on the same storm, I think they should move south as new storms enter the warning zone, the problem is it's over an hour away, so might as well stay put.

Looks like I'll be up early in the morning then, depends on the night's action in the USA .

convectiveweather.co.uk Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 11 May 2023 - 05:59 UTC Fri 12 May 2023 ISSUED 20:59 UTC Wed 10 May 2023 ISSUED BY: Dan Broad, disrupting upper trough lingers over the British Isles on Thursday, resulting in a fairly slack flow at the surface. Areas of low cloud and patchy fog should thin and break through the morning, with increasing insolation aiding surface heating and yielding 300-700 J/kg MLCAPE (locally >1,000 J/kg SBCAPE). Widespread little showers are likely to develop fairly quickly, from late morning and through the afternoon. Under the upper trough, speed shear will be weak and so most showers will be of the pulse variety with a few odd isolated lightning strikes from time to time. Showers will tend to become a little better organised where both stronger low-level forcing and better moisture pooling exists, such as over mountains or in particular along convergence zones, especially Lincolnshire into East Anglia, and here there may be a better chance of one or two more active thunderstorms. Vorticity stretching along CZs beneath developing showers may also allow a number of funnel clouds to develop. The direction of movement of showers will vary depending on location, rotating around the broader upper low, although sea breeze induced CZs will tend to migrate farther inland through the afternoon. Outflow from individual cells will ultimately dictate as and when daughter cells develop nearby, leading to a rather complex and messy evolution through the afternoon and early evening. Arguably the better environment for a more widespread coverage of lightning is likely over Leinster where stronger northwesterly flow exists aloft around the western flank of the upper low, giving a more favourable CAPE/shear overlap. Here the coldest mid-level temperatures are likely (T500 of -26C), aiding reasonably steep lapse rates. In all cases, given cold pool aloft the strongest cells may produce sub-severe hail perhaps up to 1.0cm in diameter and wind gusts to 30mph. Most showers will decay through the evening as the boundary layer cools, and then I can have the evening off with a quieter couple of days expected thereafter

LIVE! Storm Chaser Vince Waelti Storm Chaser Brandon Copic

This has the location

Reeds gang is here haha...Lets get it!! Tornado Watch 207 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 207 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast and East-Central Colorado, Northwest, Kansas, Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop and increase this afternoon, initially near the Colorado Front Range as well as northwest Kansas along/north of a front. This will include supercells capable of large hail and a few tornadoes, along with the potential for damaging winds with storms on the High Plains of eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles south southwest of Denver CO to 40 miles east southeast of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22020.

On it! Just waiting on other chasers , reports of rotation already in a cell.

UPDATED! Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 10 2023 ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Thursday across the central and southern Plains, where large hail and a few tornadoes can be expected along with locally damaging winds. Isolated hail/damaging winds are also possible across the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeastern states. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-level low is noted translating eastward across the lower CO River Valley in mid-morning water-vapor imagery. Recent guidance has generally captured the progression and amplitude of this wave well over the past 12 hours or so, lending reasonably high confidence in its general evolution over the next 48 hours. This feature is expected to become slightly negatively tilted as it ejects into the southern/central High Plains during the 18-21 UTC period Thursday. The rapid deepening of a lee cyclone over the northern TX Panhandle into western KS will coincide with the eastward mixing of a dryline, which should be draped from southwest KS into western OK and northwest TX by mid-afternoon. The severe weather threat will be concentrated along and east/northeast of this boundary as thunderstorms develop by mid to late afternoon. Along the Gulf Coast, a weak mid-level perturbation, currently over central TX, will migrate east through the day, reaching the lower MS River Valley by peak heating. Thunderstorms developing in the vicinity of this feature will pose a risk for sporadic large hail and damaging winds. ...Central to Southern Plains... Recent surface observations across the southern/central Plains show a plume of rich (mid to upper 60s) dewpoints across much of TX into south-central KS. Poleward moisture advection will increase through Thursday afternoon as the surface low deepens over western KS and the Panhandles region, with widespread mid/upper 60s ahead of the sharpening dryline. Despite the high-quality moisture, mean meridional flow ahead of the low will relegate the steepest mid-level lapse rates (sampled by 12 UTC RAOBs over the High Plains) to western KS. This, in addition to early-morning clouds/showers, will mute the influence of low-level moisture to some degree, but MLCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg should be common across the warm sector by midday. 50 knot mid-level flow largely orthogonal to the dryline should overspread KS/OK through the day, resulting in favorable deep-layer shear orientations for discrete convection. Stronger synoptic and mesoscale lift across west/southwest KS will likely result in an arching band of convection, becoming more broken with southeast extent. A second round of storms is possible during the late afternoon/evening hours as a pocket of cold temperatures aloft associated with the upper low traverses western KS. Further south into OK, a combination of more peripheral synoptic lift and slightly stronger capping will limit convective coverage. T-storm development might be locally maximized across southwest to central OK where guidance has been consistently showing a secondary surface low/dryline bulge in latest guidance that may augment forcing for ascent along the dryline. Thunderstorm potential becomes even more conditional with southward extent along the dryline south of the Red River amid stronger capping and weaker ascent. Regardless of coverage, thunderstorms developing across southern KS into OK (and possibly northern TX) will likely take on supercellular characteristics given adequate buoyancy, deep-layer shear, strong effective-layer helicity, and favorable dryline/deep-layer shear vector orientations. All hazards will be possible with these storms, including the potential for very large (2 inch or larger) hail and a significant tornado. ...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the lower MS valley in the vicinity of the mid-level perturbation. This activity will likely intensify through the day amid strong diurnal warming ahead of ongoing convection. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the western FL coast along a diurnally-driven sea breeze, as well as across parts of southwest GA. While buoyancy will be somewhat strong (around 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE), modest wind shear suggests intense convection may be somewhat short-lived. Consequently, sporadic large hail and damaging winds will be possible with strong updraft pulses through the day, and perhaps along any organized outflows associated with convective clusters.

Reed Timmer is live in 2 mins.

Ligit shelf cloud, gust front, outflow boundary, roll cloud, I like the underbelly of it.

Messed up that post, tried moving the images around, failed, ignore top image.

Interesting days ahead Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST CO...FAR SOUTHWEST NE...FAR NORTHWEST KS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe wind gusts will begin by early to mid-afternoon over a portion of the central High Plains, with a separate area this evening into tonight over the southern High Plains. The most intense storms are expected over northeast Colorado to its border area with Kansas and Nebraska. ...Central High Plains... An upper trough over the Lower CO Valley will move east towards the southern Rockies, with a meridional mid to upper flow pattern across most of the High Plains. A lee cyclone will remain anchored over eastern CO with a warm front extending east across northwest KS to southeast NE, with the southern High Plains dryline mixing east into a portion of west TX. Pronounced differential diabatic heating with abundant insolation south of the front will aid in strengthening baroclinicity across it today. A plume of 50s surface dew points will be maintained to the north of the front amid persistent easterlies in the lowest 1 km. As large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads the central to southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, initial convection will develop over the higher terrain by early afternoon. This activity will spread north-northeastward and increase in coverage through early evening. Several supercells are likely along the Front Range from east-central WY to south-central CO with a primary threat of large hail. Potential will exist for a more intense/long-tracked supercell or two developing off the Palmer Divide towards the Denver metro area and South Platte Valley, where rather enlarged/elongated hodographs coupled with the steep mid-level lapse rate environment could support very large hail and tornadoes. A few slow-moving supercells should be sustained near the dryline/front intersection in the CO/KS/NE border area with a similar very large hail and tornado threat. Additional high-based storms will likely form south to the Raton Mesa with primary threats of severe wind gusts and hail. Several clusters should eventually evolve north-northeast from western SD to western KS with a mix of severe wind/hail that should wane towards late evening. ...Southern High Plains... While some severe wind/hail potential is possible during the late afternoon near the Raton Mesa vicinity, the bulk of severe potential is likely to be delayed until late evening into tonight after the dryline retreats west. This will yield increasing moisture timed with a strengthening low-level jet and greater mid-level DCVA ahead of the AZ/NM shortwave trough. With a more westerly component to mid-level flow, especially with southern extent, potential will exist for a few supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Southeast TX and western LA... An MCV over east-central TX should drift towards the Ark-La-Tex today. Regenerative, slow-moving deep convection is ongoing along the upper TX Gulf Coast, with recent scattered development underway to the LA coastal plain. A belt of enhanced low-level winds is consistently progged to spread from just off the TX coast to the Sabine Valley by afternoon. This would yield enlargement to the low-level hodograph in an otherwise weak deep-layer shear regime. However, given the degree of ongoing convection, diurnal destabilization is expected to be muted. Therefore, some potential for transient low-level circulations is anticipated but its unclear whether a more favorable brief tornado and isolated damaging wind corridor can develop. ...Far northern MN into ND... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse will move east atop the northern extent of the upper ridge near the international border through the afternoon/evening. With the northeast plume of steep mid-level lapse rates impinging on the area, MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg should be common from central ND into northwest MN. While the bulk of supercell development should be confined to southern Manitoba, multicell clustering may spread/develop across the international border this evening with a threat for isolated damaging wind and severe hail. ..Grams/Marsh.. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Thursday across the central Plains vicinity, where large hail can be expected along with locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to move slowly northeastward out of the southern Rockies and into the central High Plains region Thursday. Meanwhile, a weaker/lead disturbance is progged to shift slowly northeastward across the Ozarks/lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley through the period. Elsewhere, northeasterly flow aloft will persist across New England, while ridging prevails across the West Coast states, and from the Southeast northward into the Midwest. At the surface, a weak low initially anticipated over southeastern Colorado will shift slowly northeastward across western Kansas. A weak/secondary low may evolve during the late afternoon/early evening hours across the southwestern Oklahoma vicinity, near a possible bulge in a dryline that will be mixing eastward across the western half of Texas through the afternoon. Elsewhere across the U.S., surface high pressure will largely prevail. ...Plains states from South Dakota to Oklahoma... A rather complex scenario is forecast to evolve across the Plains states, as an upper low within the base of a negatively tilted trough crossing Intermountain West crosses the central High Plains. Southeasterly low-level winds ahead of the upper low and associated surface cyclone should maintain a seasonably moist airmass, which will destabilize through the afternoon in tandem with diurnal heating. At this time, it appears that convective coverage should gradually increase through the afternoon -- northeast of the low across portions of Nebraska, and southeastward in an arcing band from eastern Colorado into western Kansas. With flow veering from southeasterly to southerly and increasing with height, shear will be sufficient to support organized updrafts, and attendant risk for hail and locally damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. This convection should spread northeastward through the afternoon and evening in tandem with the gradual advance of the parent synoptic system, with severe potential eventually waning later in the evening. A more substantial -- through also likely more isolated -- severe risk may evolve across parts of western Oklahoma, near a potential dryline bulge. While capping should hinder development until late afternoon, developing storms would be evolving within an airmass featuring a moist boundary layer beneath steep lapse rates aloft, and with low-level southeasterly flow veering and increasing to southwesterly at mid levels. As a result, a couple of supercell storms are anticipated, which would be capable of producing very large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and potentially a couple of tornadoes. This risk would spread northeastward through the evening -- across Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. While questions regarding convective coverage argue against upgrading tornado or hail probabilities at this time, such upgrades could be necessary in future outlooks if this scenario becomes more certain, and particularly if it appears that storm coverage may be slightly greater than currently anticipated. ...Southern Mississippi and vicinity... A cluster of thunderstorms -- which may be ongoing at the start of the period near the Mississippi Delta region -- may persist into the afternoon, as the airmass destabilizes. Several CAMs indicate that upscale growth into the afternoon may occur, with a band of storms spreading eastward across the southern half of Mississippi. Though deep-layer flow is progged to remain rather weak, locally gusty/damaging winds could occur with a few of the stronger updrafts, along with marginal hail potential, within this band of storms through the afternoon hours. ..Goss..

Mothership Nice shelfie Boiling skies make or great shots, my favories Haha good to see someone make the best out of it. I'm more surprised there wasn't more funnels or a significant tornado sighted. Dan on the ball as always.

Areas of interest in red, sorry for the bad editing skills. Worth keeping an eye on, probably for rainfall amounts.

@Eagle Eye On a serious note, have you noticed how the mass of the thunderstorms that started from the west is now interacting with the system from the south? Is this part of the warning, do you think? I have noticed the storms are moving slower and in somewhat a different direction, or not moving at all.

May snow for the south/south-east, a bit late in the year, ain't it?

Poking the beast with a twig I see haha, be safe bro, remember lightning can reach over 500 miles from a Thunderstorm, not common but......you now know haha.

HELL YEAH!! Edit: Hold on, why are you in the middle of a filed during a thunderstorm????

You do know Reed Timmer pulls in nearly or over 1k dollars just streaming on YouTube for a few hours, don't let your dreams die.

HP Anvils, you just earned yourself a cookie

Were it so easy .

Keep an eye on the lowering of the cloud base