Raindrops

Be safe and enjoy, don't stand in open field haha, grass realy is dry in this photo.

Track the fires with the storms, mht be a good way to keep an eye on things. /effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu

Of course, I woke up this morning to see smog from a wild fire in the Dublin Mts, but I'm not sure if the farmers caused it or the heat. In cloud or cloud to cloud lightning is hard to pick up @thunderpants /images/OG-icon.jpg Lightning - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service WWW.MET.IE Met Éireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland.

Dry Lightning, the best to view at night and not camera shy.

I've read three different forecasts and each one is very different, I'm going to go with anything is random for the next 14 hours, even the timings are of but that's nothing new really. The storm that just recently passed me barely had rain, not enough to put out a fire that's for sure, and 1 CG hit close to me.

Storm Forecast Valid: Tue 19 Jul 2022 06:00 to Wed 20 Jul 2022 06:00 UTC Issued: Mon 18 Jul 2022 23:51 Forecaster: BEYER A level 2 was issued for S to C France for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and excessive precipitation. A level 1 was issued for parts of Spain and France into far S Belgium extending the level 2 for overnight activity mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for large hail. A level 1 was issued for the W Alps and the Sea Alps mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for severe wind gusts. A level 1 was issued for parts of W Russia mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for tornadoes. A level 1 was issued for S Russia adjacent to the Caucasus Mountains mainly for excessive precipitation and to a lesser extent for tornadoes. SYNOPSIS An unusual strong long-wave ridge is present over C Europe and moves slowly eastward during the forecast period. At the same time, a cut-off upper-level low is present over the Bay of Biscay moving to the English Channel during the night to Wednesday. On its forward flank, a hot airmass is advected far to the North. This record-breaking heat will bring new temperature records to many parts of W and C Europe. This hot airmass is also characterized by a strong elevated mixed layer with steep lapse rates (1 to 4 km) but a very dry BL. A dry surface trough with strong cold air advection is passing France during the forecast period from W to E and reaches Germany during the night. Strong synoptic lift is forecasted with the upper-level low that influences especially S France. Further to the east, an upper-level trough influences W Russia and parts of E Europe with rather cool and unstable airmasses. Several short wave features can be found along the flanks of the UL low. A pronounced short wave trough is moving southward on the W flank of the trough during the night hours. DISCUSSION ... France ... As already mentioned in the synopsis the hot and record-breaking airmass is characterized by a deep elevated mixed layer but also very dry BL with low dewpoints and values of specific humidity. The forming surface trough that extends from Great Britain to N France and is moving eastward, will thus pass completely dry with a sharp shift of LL winds and a strong pressure rise further upstream that may bring a few strong wind gusts but no convection. Further to the south the strong southerly to southwesterly flow that crosses the Pyrenees will lead to lee cyclogenesis just N of the Pyrenees. Strong moisture pooling is forecasted in that region. The strong lift due to the approaching UL low in combination with the orographically induced lee cyclogenesis is forecasted to initiate several storms N of the Pyrenees. At the same time, mid-level and deep layer shear is strengthening from the west. Low-level wind profiles show a nice veering and up to 200 m^2/s^2 of SRH0-3 is forecasted. As a result, the initiated storm may rapidly develop into rotating supercells. These mesocyclonic storms may bring large to very large hail taking into account the steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg. At the same time, DCAPE values of around 500 J/kg are present having an inverted-V low-level profile. Thus also severe wind gusts are possible. LAMs point to wind gusts of well above 25 m/s with those initiated storms. During the late evening and night hours, the convection is forecasted to move further north related to the synoptic scale forcing of the trough. Having rather parallel shear vectors (pointing S to N) along the organizing feature convection is forecasted to cluster into a linear MCS. Precipitable water has values of up to 40 mm and convection may repeatedly move over the same region. As a result, there is an enhanced threat of excessive precipitation while the chance for large hail is decreasing during the night hours. At the end of the outlook period, convection should reach NE France and S Belgium but the threat of severe weather is decreasing. ... W Alps ... Synoptic scale forcing in this region is rather weak but thanks to the orography somewhat enhanced LL moisture (advected with S winds from the Mediterranean) can overlap with the steep lapse rates. As a result CAPE values of up to 1000 J/kg are forecasted to develop. Given very weak wind shear clustering convection along the orography is forecasted to develop in the afternoon hours. Storms are forecasted to be only slow-moving and therefore excessive precipitation is a prominent threat in this region. In addition, low levels are dry with inverted-V profiles. Thus, especially at the beginning, also strong to severe wind gusts cannot be excluded. ... parts of W Russia ... A lot of convective activity due to the UL trough is forecasted over W Russia. Strong and persistent convergence is predicted in the region of the surface low that is situated perpendicular below the mid to upper-level low. Precipitable water is forecasted to have values well above 30 mm. Repeated convection enhances the threat of excessive precipitation in the LVL 1 area. In addition, there is a chance for one or two type-II tornadoes having weak low to upper-level converging winds around the low-level center as well as very low LCLs. ... S Russia ... Some CAPE can develop close to the Black Sea due to a very moist BL that can develop with somewhat steep lapse rates from further inland. Thus some storms close to the E coast of the Black Sea are forecasted to develop. These may locally bring excessive precipitation given the high values of precipitable water. Low-level winds are forecasted to be rather weak and LCLs are close to the surface. As a result, we would not exclude waterspouts from these storms. Further inland almost no CAPE is forecasted. However persistent and strong precipitation can be found in some of the models. These precipitations may be convectively enhanced. Thus the LVL1 was extended further inland to account for an enhanced threat of excessive precipitation also having in mind the high values of precipitable water (40 to 45 mm). Èstofex

Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 19 Jul 2022 - 05:59 UTC Wed 20 Jul 2022 ISSUED 06:12 UTC Tue 19 Jul 2022 ISSUED BY: Dan An incredibly hot, dry airmass continues to cover Britain on Tuesday associated with a deep well-mixed layer generally suppressing surface-based convection. Above this mixed layer scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the morning over SW England and into Wales and perhaps SE Ireland along a NW-SE aligned instability axis drifting gradually eastwards through the day on the forward side of an upper low over Biscay. Most model guidance suggests activity along this zone will wane by the afternoon hours, however the instability axis remains as it tracks eastwards across England through the afternoon and evening and any subtle forcing/moistening may be sufficient for additional elevated showers/thunderstorms to develop. However, confidence is rather low on exactly when and where - a blend of guidance suggests there may be an uptick in activity across SE England, East Anglia and the E Midlands during the evening hours. Meanwhile, ahead of this feature the UKV (and to a lesser extent the ECMWF) continues to flag the potential for a few scattered showers/thunderstorms over Cen N and NE England and SE Scotland during the afternoon and early evening hours, exiting to the North Sea. In the model world these have a surface-based look to them forming within the surface trough axis, but in reality their bases would be incredibly high (same level as elevated convection essentially) and given the incredibly deep hot, dry layer such surface-based convection would likely struggle for moisture. Therefore this scenario is deemed rather unlikely, with elevated convection probably the more favoured mode (if anything does indeed develop). Any strong, isolated elevated convection that does develop at any point during this forecast period poses the risk of starting a fire given potential for dry thunderstorms and tinder dry vegetation, and perhaps also some heat bursts. Thunderstorms could produce quite frequent lightning given the magnitude of instability above the EML. Perhaps better consensus is for an active complex of thunderstorms to quickly develop over parts of northern Scotland and the Moray Firth during the late afternoon and early evening hours, on the leading edge of the approaching cold front as PVA arrives from the southwest. This may become messy given a mixture of convective and dynamic precipitation, but could be rather active for a few hours before weakening on approach to Shetland. Overnight, there may also be an increase in elevated shower/thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the Celtic Sea and portions of Wales/SW England (perhaps W Midlands/W Country) on the northern periphery of the approaching Biscay upper low. convectiveweather.co.uk

Just had a nice storm pass by me (Dublin), rather messy and sporadic, some IC and one CG, light rain, mostly coastal, I'm mostly waiting for late night action if at all lucky. Humidity is high now. Time:12:45 (UTC)Date:19/07/2022 Weather Observation data at Trinity Comprehensive School Temperature24.3°C Humidity66% Rainfall Accumulation0.3mm Pressure (at station height)1003hPa Wind Speed2knots Wind Speed4km/h Wind Gust Speed-knots Wind Direction18deg Dew-Point Temperature17.8°C Soil Temperature 10cm-°C Weather Observation data at Trinity Comprehensive School

Just had a nice storm pass by me (Dublin), rather messy and sporadic, some IC and one CG, light rain, mostly coastal, I'm mostly waiting for late night action if at all lucky. Humidity is high now.

Meanwhile in Southwest boats hide from the storm.

Your Ireland community url is broken.

My concern are trees and wind gusts. Not many trees or buildings can handle the gusts. I seen a nice squall line or two will be set up over UK , maybe a funnel cloud or tornado. We shall see during the course of time.

My college is canceld for tomorrow. Will maybe give you guys updates tomorrow, I live in the Dublin area. I was on the look out for a sting jet. Storm Forecast Valid: Tue 07 Dec 2021 06:00 to Wed 08 Dec 2021 06:00 UTC Issued: Mon 06 Dec 2021 19:13 Forecaster: DAFIS DISCUSSION .... Ireland, UK and NW France .... There is a general consensus among the available NWP models about the time and position of a deep low west of Ireland before 12z on Tue 7/12. An explosive deepening will create a favorable environment for severe and damaging wind gusts, stronger than 40 m/s. Embedded convection will add an additional component to the damaging winds Estofex

Humm looks like some UK just woke up.

Oh I don't need to know about rotation, I just know that that is a beautiful wallcloud, one I didn't expect to see.

That is one hell of a wallcloud. I've never seen one so perfect. Did you get a video?

Heavy flooding in South Dublin SEVERE FLOODING HAS hit areas of South Dublin as a Status Yellow thunderstorm warning is in effect for more than half of the country. After bursts of heavy rain, gardaí issued a traffic alert for Roebuck Road in Dublin 14, which is “impassable” due to flooding. “Roebuck Rd, Dublin 14 has been made impassable due to severe flooding in the area,” gardaí said. “Please take caution if you are driving in this area. Local diversions are in place” The Dundrum Town shopping centre is partly flooding on its ground floor and outside area. “We are currently experiencing isolated flooding in the Pembroke District and Level 1 Mall areas due to the sudden heavy downpour,” the centre wrote on Twitter.

Been watching that, for some reason she won't wake up, still time though. I'm across the sea from you in Dublin, I was surprised I got some action today, the converging winds actually made things happen here. I checked models last night and I thought most the action would happen in central Ireland and southeast of Ireland, I was concerned about the cloud cover before noon today but as temperatures where rather high under the cloud that meant temps would rise rapidly as soon as the sun broke through and along with winds converging everything fell into place. What I was picking up in the southeast of Ireland is happening now, the showers are more heavy than what I had in Dublin, the thunderstorms are actually on track with models. I'm closely watching an area to my southwest, fingers crossed. Edit:even Northern Ireland has surprised me.

1950 from what I've read. Can you post up the artical you read, I would be interested to read it, thanks.

I have noticed the activation ;). Just checked sat24, looks good, good luck. Keep an eye on converging winds

Rain at the summit of Greenland On August 14, 2021, rain was observed at the highest point on the Greenland Ice Sheet for several hours, and air temperatures remained above freezing for about nine hours. This was the third time in less than a decade, and the latest date in the year on record, that the National Science Foundation’s Summit Station had above-freezing temperatures and wet snow. There is no previous report of rainfall at this location (72.58°N 38.46°W), which reaches 3,216 meters (10,551 feet) in elevation. Earlier melt events in the instrumental record occurred in 1995, 2012, and 2019; prior to those events, melting is inferred from ice cores to have been absent since an event in the late 1800s. The cause of the melting event that took place from August 14 to 16, 2021, was similar to the events that occurred this late July, where a strong low pressure center over Baffin Island and high air pressure southeast of Greenland conspired to push warm air and moisture rapidly from the south. For more info

That is probably the best what he/she said I've heard this year

Beautiful shelf

To pinpoint where a thunderstorm will happen is not fully possible but to forecast a larger area is more possible but not always correct. Your best bet is to track storms via radar for up to date real time information. Even if you see a thunderstorm heading to your area it does not mean it will survive the journey. Thunderstorms can grow rapidly and die of in a very short distance. The warnings are put out for when a Thunderstorm does hit within an area for the safety of the public ie drivers, sport events, music events etc etc.

Cloud base, good for spotting funnel clouds. Pc yoga.