Raindrops

Nice Japanese Maple, sorry went of topic, looks like the south/south-east warning is coming into effect now.

Congrats on your baby's first tooth, well spotted.

Radar seems convincing

Sat24.com has decided we should all have a yellow warning, you get a yellow warning, and you get one, there's one for everyone in the audience.

Good bases on those.

Choo! Choo!

UPDATED Convectiveweather.co.uk Day 1 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 09 May 2023 - 05:59 UTC Wed 10 May 2023 ISSUED 06:23 UTC Tue 09 May 2023 ISSUED BY: Dan It is worth stressing from the outset this is a potentially very messy forecast evolution that carries a lot of uncertainty and is subject to updates/adjustments. In a broad sense, an upper trough will migrate eastwards across the British Isles on Tuesday, with a cut-off upper low within its base that will tend to drift eastwards through the English Channel. This will be associated with a fairly significant cold pool aloft (T500 around -26C, for example) with a cyclonically curved jet streak rounding the base of this upper low and placing the left exit region in the vicinity of southern England. The exact shape/evolution of this mid-level feature will be, at least partly, instrumental in how things develop through the day, and various NWP output varies in its handling of this feature. Therefore, the forecast evolution is highly sensitive to subtle changes in forcing aloft and/or the thermodynamic/kinematic profile which may not be fully resolved in NWP. At the surface, a moist low-level airmass will be present across England and Wales (having originated over eastern Ireland on Monday afternoon), with dewpoints typically around 10-13C. A rather diffuse cold front will migrate eastwards through the day, with a slight reduction in dewpoints likely accompanied by a veering of the low-level winds. Despite the fairly large spread in possible evolution over central and southern England in particular, key themes are outlined using a multi-model blend approach. Fairly extensive cloud is likely during the morning across much of England and Wales, with some hill and coastal fog. Through the day this should thin and break, with increasing insolation then resulting in better surface heating. A selection of forecast soundings in central/southern Britain, while fairly moist through much of the troposphere, do appear to become unstable with only modest surface heating and as such a few heavy showers may develop around 11z-13z (in addition to an area of showery rain drifting across SW England with the potential for a few odd lightning strikes with this feature). Exactly how unstable profiles become will depend on both the amount of surface heating that can be achieved, and also the exact thermodynamic profile. Most model guidance suggests 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE may be achievable (with SBCAPE potentially in excess of 1,000 J/kg). Showers may initially be fairly scattered and particularly tied to sea breeze convergence zones, such as near the Dorset/Hampshire coast for a time before lifting further north, eventually evolving into thunderstorms with time. PV lobes in the vicinity of the upper low aiding synoptic-scale ascent may encourage thunderstorms to grow upscale into a larger multicell complexes across parts of the Midlands and central southern England, drifting into East Anglia and SE England later in the afternoon and into the evening. This may also coincide with a modest increase in effective bulk shear as the aforementioned jet streak rounds the base of the upper trough and shifts northeastwards into SE England (12z GFS more keen/further north than 12z ECMWF, for example). Outflow from thunderstorms will significantly impact where new cells develop, and this will undoubtedly lead to a lot of uncertainty in locations with the greatest lightning coverage. Fairly moist profiles casts some concern over exactly how much lightning activity will occur. The relatively slow movement may lead to local surface water flooding, potentially very disruptive when coinciding with the evening commute for the likes of London and the Home Counties. This may be exacerbated by local strong downburst winds, gusts typically 40-50mph (and therefore below SVR criteria). Hail may accompany the strongest cells, but probably no larger than 1.0-1.5cm in diameter. In addition, a small surface low may linger close to or over East Anglia, maximising low-level convergence and forced ascent and potentially resulting in quasi-stationary heavy downpours/thunderstorms here that may also lead to local flooding away from the larger complex of thunderstorms further to the west. Elsewhere, an arguably simpler evolution is anticipated with scattered heavy showers and a few thunderstorms developing in Ulster and Leinster through the day, and also along the east coast of Britain (perhaps also NE Scotland) in response to sea breeze convergence and some orographic forcing. Reasonably strong updrafts may aid vorticity stretching along low-level CZs to produce a few funnel clouds.

Some clips from today, ignore me talking to Thor. Slowmo4.mp4 Slowmo3.mp4 Slowmo2.mp4 Slowmo1.mp4 Forgot to add the ending

Both forecasts were on the ball for today.

Nice , just have to love that sound.

Nice storm in Dublin pasted, now in the Irish Sea, disappointed about with the activity in the North.

Kicking of now in Dublin mostly CC, the Squall line in Northern Ireland fell apart, but activity has increased.

Nice Squall line heading into Northern Ireland now, when will it trigger is the question. Edit: spoke too soon.

Convection has started Edit: Thunderstorms now kicking off in south midlands Ireland.

Convective Weather.co.uk Mon 08 May 2023 Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 08 May 2023 - 05:59 UTC Tue 09 May 2023 ISSUED 22:00 UTC Sun 07 May 2023 ISSUED BY: Dan Upper ridge over western Europe will slowly topple southeastwards on Monday, as an upper trough advances from the Atlantic (the trough axis not crossing Ireland until Tuesday morning). A series of fronts will cross the British Isles, bringing extensive cloud and outbreaks of rain across Britain for a time, but leaving Ireland/Northern Ireland with increasing amounts of insolation through the day as convective overturning breaks up the cloud. As such, heating of the moist low-level airmass (dewpoints 13-15C) coupled with cooling aloft as the upper trough approaches, is likely to yield an increasingly unstable environment with scope for locally in excess of 1,000 J/kg SBCAPE. Forecast soundings suggest a cap will initially be present at ~800hPa, but this should erode by around noon as cooling aloft occurs. As such, heavy showers and thunderstorms should develop fairly readily once surface temperatures reach the mid-high teens Celsius - this appears most likely to first occur over Ulster from around 13-14z onwards, and then perhaps an hour or two later further south into the Irish Midlands vicinity and points east, where surface troughing is expected during the afternoon aiding low-level convergence. Thunderstorms will mature in size and intensity as they drift gradually to the east/northeast at 20-30mph, therefore the most widespread coverage of lightning is anticipated in eastern areas where a MDT was introduced. Forecast soundings suggest convective cloud tops could reach -50C / 30,000ft. Shear is somewhat limited due to the main jet activity remaining to the south of Ireland, but that said 20-30kts should be sufficient, especially in central and southern Leinster, to help separate updrafts/downdrafts and aid some organisation of cells, perhaps with some transient supercellular characteristics. Some very active and long-lived thunderstorm clusters are possible, perhaps back-building such that some areas receive multiple thunderstorms and therefore increasing the risk of local surface water flooding. Hail and gusty winds will likely accompany the strongest cells, although both aspects probably below severe limits (1.0-1.5cm and 35-45mph respectively) - however, the strongest cells in central/southern Leinster may be capable of producing hail closer to 2cm or so in diameter, and a SVR may be introduced in subsequent updates. Cloud bases during the first half of the afternoon will typically be around 1,000ft, but should lower to 500ft (or less) towards evening as dewpoint depressions reduce. This, coupled with modestly increasing low-level shear/vorticity as storms approach the east coast, may provide a brief window of opportunity for an isolated tornado, but the risk is deemed rather low overall. Thunderstorms may well persist until mid-late evening in eastern areas, but a gradual decay is anticipated through the evening hours as they drift across the Irish Sea towards the Isle of Man, W/NW Wales and NW England. Elsewhere, thunderstorms emanating from Northern Ireland may spread into S/SW Scotland, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours, although how long they continue to produce lightning is questionable given only modest instability here. In addition, surface heating in north and northeast Scotland coupled with orographic forcing and some low-level convergence may encourage a few heavy showers/weak thunderstorms to develop here during the late afternoon and early evening hours. A few lightning strikes may also be possible in the morning/midday period near/over SW England and Wales on the rear of the frontal rain, but forecast profiles do not appear to be fairly conducive to sustain deep convection and so have refrained from introducing a SLGT here. Towards the end of Monday night (and this forecast period), a shortwave trough approaching SW Ireland may produce a few sporadic lightning strikes, but much (if any) activity may hold off until 06z Tuesday before making landfall.

LIVE - Dominator 3 Storm Chase Mode DFW - Gorilla Hail (Reed Timmer) Live STORM CHASER: Hunting for HUGE Hail in Texas! Storm Chaser Vince Waelti LIVE STORM CHASING - NORTH / CENTRAL TEXAS  Storm Chaser Corey Gerken A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely across central Texas and in the central Great Plains, centred at 4 to 10 PM CDT. Large hail and locally damaging winds are possible. A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

Yup, I saw that, even had a hook just before dying.

Very eventful day, time to head across the water for some Texas storm chasing, *pours coffee*.

Looks like a possible Bow echo, west of Hull would be good for action, maybe a funnel cloud. Edit: it has a hook, but it's dying.

I was waiting for this as I did notice a hook on radar, thanks.

Psst, CC

Oh, I get it now, I just had to watch a few videos on YouTube as the radar and satellite images 1fps don't do any justice compared to a time-lapse, It looks like a blast wave haha, also took a while for the coffee to kick in, learned something new, thanks @Eagle Eye

Are the gravity waves, the spaces between each train of convective cloud? I'm just curious because there are many ways a gravity wave is formed in the meteorology world. Thanks Edit:Upon research, am I right in saying Lee Waves? Gravity Waves

An educational video about Supercell's Credit: Twister Hunter (YouTube). The Anatomy of the Life of a Supercell