[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

Hmm maybe, maybe not.

Mesoscale Discussion 815

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

@Nick L Here you go

The Future of Supercells in the United States

Results reveal that supercells will be more frequent and intense in future climates, with robust spatiotemporal shifts in their populations. Supercells are projected to become more numerous in regions of the eastern United States, while decreasing in frequency in portions of the Great Plains.

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

SPC AC 181229

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...

Strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind gusts may impact parts of the southern Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, and the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening.

...West TX/OK... Weak to moderately strong westerly mid-level winds are present today from the Great Basin eastward into the central/southern Plains, with several weak/subtle shortwave troughs embedded in the flow. Strong heating is expected to occur today from the southern TX panhandle southward, helping to form a weakly focused surface dryline from near Amarillo southward to the Big Bend region. Most overnight CAM solutions suggest that low clouds persist through much of the day in the central/northeastern TX panhandle, leading to a relatively strong baroclinic zone across the region. This boundary is likely to be the focus for strong/severe thunderstorms by late afternoon. Despite weak forcing mechanisms, scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to build in vicinity/west of the dryline and move into the moist/unstable axis. Gusty winds will be possible in the stronger cores throughout the region. Enhanced low-level shear/convergence in vicinity of the baroclinic zone may result in more organized storms over the TX panhandle during the late afternoon and evening, where RAP forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs to support supercell structures. Hail and damaging winds are the main threat, although a tornado or two is possible. Therefore have added a small SLGT risk for that region.

...Eastern CO/Western KS... Easterly post-frontal low-level winds are expected today over much of eastern CO and western KS, maintaining 50s dewpoints across the region. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over the foothills and spread into the adjacent plains, with some interaction with the DCVZ. Forecast soundings in this area show MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and 25-30 knots of deep-layer shear. This suggests some potential for organized clusters of storms capable of gusty winds and hail.

...MN/WI... An upper trough over Manitoba will track southeastward today, with its associated surface cold front sagging into southeast MN and central WI. Scattered thunderstorms will form along this front by mid-afternoon and track across parts of central WI and northeast IA. Strengthening winds aloft and strong heating ahead of the front will support gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cores. The primary severe threat will only last few hours this evening due to a narrow instability axis and the onset of diurnal cooling.

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

On 17/05/2023 at 14:59, Nick L said:

Can't say I've ever seen the SPC 4-8 have "potential too low" every day in late May before. What has happened to late May in recent years?!

I've just done a case of spoke to soon, but a small area has a slight risk today.

Could be El Niño??? Jet Stream is too far North?? The plains are drier, hence the shift to the East.

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

On 16/05/2023 at 03:11, Ben Sainsbury said:

Yeah managed my first tornado on Saturday which was a blast! Today, we were on one of the few tornado-warned storms N of Springfield, Missouri.

We've got a down day tomorrow as we're setting up for upcoming risk over Southern Plains. 

Day 3 outlook looks good (so far) :), happy and safe chasing

[GPT-4]

17 hours ago, Dreckly said:

Very interesting and more information

 

Oh looks interesting, I'll give this a read during my spare time, busy training for network engineering at the moment, I look forward to it as AI will be more involved now without a doubt.

I'll give an input about the halting of AI.........Elon Musk cough cough.

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

33 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep watched it live on Saturday evening.

Live viewing was from inside Dominator, until the camera was knocked over when the worst hit.

Twas about 5 mins afterwards that any connection was established. Though you could still hear the screaming inside for the minute or so that they were inside the tornado.

The drone video has certainly shown it up for the better.

I just used a link on here towatch it, and I assumed most had seen it.

MIA

 

I wonder if he will sell footage for this ...

Twisters, aka Twister 2, Gets Summer 2024 Release Date

MOVIEWEB.COM

---

The Twister sequel will land in theaters in 2024.

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I thought it was Friday?

I missed most of the action as i tuned in at about 10:30 pm our time as i forgot about it,great footage though and jakes feed Saturday evening was good too as he bagged three touchdown tors, @Raindrops posted the video on the last page.

Si

Best night ever.

Only 2% chance of Tornados tonight and tomorrow, and the foreseeable future looks like a lull.

Anyway of to watch a film, have a good evening all.

 

[GPT-4]

Old news, but does anyone else think that the halting or slowing down of AI is a good/bad idea?

[Dani Connor Wild]

I've been subbed to Dani for some time now, each vlog has wonderful videos and photography, from squirrels to the aurora borealis go check her out, you won't be disappointed.

Dani Connor Wild

 

 

[Storms and Convective discussion - 20th March 2023 onwards]

2 hours ago, Rufus Butterfield said:

YouTube’s now processed the video of the storm (5th May) to HD so I’ll share it here.

 

 

You cleaned the camera in the nick of time, the reversed square root symbol lightning was awesome, you could almost see it coming up from the ground.

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

 

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

I'm in the US for 2.5 weeks but 9/10 days dedicated to chasing, flying into Denver. I don't limit myself with where I'm going, as long as I'm back towards Denver by the 30th!

Oh, that's handy, not too far from Kansas, over two weeks is good for a chance, may the shear be with you, have a Gooden.

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

14 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Will be my first potential chase day this time next week, hopefully the upcoming shut down in activity will be short-lived.

How long will your trip be and which areas (States) have you chosen for your hunting grounds, or will it be random?

I see heavy downpours for Kansas during the week, but that means nothing without the correct elements in play.

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

Multi Vortex Tornado Chase - Northwest, Iowa

Jake Heitman Adventures

 

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

Only a 2% chance of Tornados today.

SPC AC 141229

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS....

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts and hail are possible today across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley.

...MO/IL Vicinity... Morning water vapor loop shows the upper low that has resulted in severe storms over the Plains states the last couple of days has weakened significantly, and is now a poorly defined shortwave trough beginning to track southeastward into northern IL. As this happens, a weak surface cold front will also sag southward into MO/IL. CAM solutions suggest scattered thunderstorms will form along/ahead of the front by early afternoon. Storms should build southeastward along the low-level theta-e/CAPE axis into southern IL. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and the confidence in organized severe storms today is not particularly high. Nevertheless, the combination of a moist/moderately unstable airmass and linear forcing mechanisms along the front may be sufficient for a few bowing structures posing a risk of locally damaging winds and hail.

..Hart/Gleason.. 05/14/2023

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

And that's a wrap!

GN folks

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

 

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

Good timing.

Mesoscale Discussion 791

 

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

Suddenly 5 Tornado warnings, 30 mins before watch warning ends.

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

1 hr remaining

Radar view of the only Tornado warned cell

 

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Ha Ha

great coverage by them though and bagged 3 tor's and great quality stream too.

Agree 100%, this how chasing is done and educational at the same time, the teamwork is great, no drama, he gets his information fast, I'm lagging by about 2 mins.

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Sirens going off on Jake feed now on a new T-warned storm.

 

This couple is dominating.....that sounds so wrong, I'll see myself out.

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

From chat

What did the teenage tornado say to his parents? Nothing. He just stormed off.

 

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Here we go again maybe.

Lookerly the house was fine.

Yup just the barn lost some roofing, it has formed again.

[2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

That was an epic watch,recorded it all

More rotation, it did not like that house.