[Upcoming winter speculation and chat - October edition]

I've not picked up how it may have fit into the larger patterns in this part of the world, but at the moment it seems that the North Atlantic cold pool, which I remember being prominent in at least the last couple of years, has dissipated for the moment.

Here are the current anomalies, showing the NA drift close to normal temps:

I used to have hopes that the cold pool may help drive more interesting weather to our shores, but never saw any evidence of this. Perhaps its absence may be noticeable?

[Have you turned your heating on yet ?]

Yep - I sat freezing all day when working from home, and the other house occupant took an executive decision last night while I was out. I didn't grumble too much.

[Model Output Discussion - early October]

15 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Well looking beyond lorenzo   What the Gfs paints is a very wet and Bleak week  Copious amounts of rainfall  and blustery  making the Weather feel  well very autumnal 

 

Aye, the evolution is either looking to me like a quite active NW flow, or a flaccid N/NE flow, either way, temperatures nice and seasonal.

After the first windscreen-scraping of the season yesterday, I think the leaves are going to be dropping off apace in the next while. I'd better harvest the neighbour's overhanging pears sharpish...

[Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.]

12 hours ago, Paul said:

The 15z UKV (the 03z and 15z runs go to 120 hours, the others to 54 hours) has ex-Lorenzo a bit further north as it makes landfall. It then fills fairly quickly as it moves southeast, with the centre over the Isle of Wight as it clears. 

 

Here's the difference between the 3z and 15z

The NOAA report a wide field of strong winds, so it seems to me that Ireland and maybe the west coasts of Britain will take an early and prolonged battering, and coastal flooding will be a problem too, but after that, the excitement dies down pretty quickly. Round these parts, I'm not expecting much out of the ordinary unless the track is pushed further northwards.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Autumn 2019.]

Long-time lurker, first-time poster. I suppose I'm mostly joining so I can block one or two of the more 'poetic' contributors to this thread. Also, the autumn transition is probably my favourite time of year, especially with the likes of Lorenzo menacing us (and the models) from afar.

Generally though, huge thanks to all of the very knowledgeable contributors, and to the rest of you, yes we know it's too early for cold/no, winter's not over yet, shush. [delete as appropriate]