WxHerts
Members-
Posts
125 -
Joined
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by WxHerts
-
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
WxHerts replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Nothing like a bit of pessimism to kick off the day were people expecting GFS 2000j/kg charts to persist? I’m assuming that’s what it is, because to me the potential still looks great at this very early stage -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
WxHerts replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Fair enough, but a lot of the time in this country it's no pain no gain - if we have to endure a couple of washout type days to get a decent shot at some proper warmth/storms then I'm 100% all for it -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
WxHerts replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yeah agreed, a potentially great convective setup on the way..I was questioning more the use of hi res models already lol, far too early! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
WxHerts replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
'Dissapointing', 'very wet and unsettled'..what am I reading?! Or more importantly, what are you lot viewing? *Could* be a couple of wet days, but after that we look to be opening the doors to warmth, humidity and storms..what's not to like? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
WxHerts replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes very icon esque, a fine scenario -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
WxHerts replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Gfs every so slightly further S/SW with trough at 90h..it really does feel like like winter lol, watching the developments of a channel low -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
WxHerts replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Lol, too early for discussing specifics no? Let's get the pattern nailed on first I'd say, the very complex pattern might I add! -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
WxHerts replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I've seen a few people saying today's featured the best storm they've seen in years....whattt?! Lasted about an hour here, sporadic bright pink bolts, some very impressive shotgun type thunder and a very healthy 14.7mm - impressive persistence for a northerly yes, best event since 1st October last year when I got lucky with quite a localised overhead storm..but god best in years?! No decent sized hail, no daytime darkness, generally low strike rates, no epic convective gusts and no proper torrential rain..all essential items on my good storm checklist!! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
WxHerts replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
UKMO 12z looks similar to 0z, but that's fine IMO. Looks like we'd inevitably reach the same end result as the 'better' solutions just a few days later, only way for trough to move is south and that's clearly what it's doing from d5>d6 -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
WxHerts replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Shock horror OP is an outlier..but considering the mean gets above 10C, what a great set I’d say. Remarkable agreement, but that can quickly get undone.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
WxHerts replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Epic convective setup coming in just after d10 too..we can only dream. Will be hard pressed to find a much better heat + convective setup for early June than that. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
WxHerts replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Can't say I've seen too many memorable tstorm events off a northerly haha, but high res picking up on that cape too with a decent ppn signal, so could be a few very beefy downpours about.. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
WxHerts replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Astounding gfs 18z, best run I've seen in a while and we're not even at d10 yet - locked in heat from there, of note though seeing trough further southwest than any other runs this evening -
Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.
WxHerts replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
High risk high reward type scenario being modelled..large bank of warmer than avg air to our east/southeast...perhaps some intense model watching over the days ahead. Not something that can really be picked up on via just looking at background signals, as a small scale difference of just a few hundred miles in this case could easily prove the difference between persistent rain and suppressed daytime temps v sunshine, high twenties and tropical pm SB storms -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
WxHerts replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
-
South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2019 onwards
WxHerts replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
-
Model Output Discussion - heading into April
WxHerts replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Stunning set of 12z runs thus far, keeping an eye on that upper low slowly moving thru the atlantic @ d6ish for any plumey/30c+ potential later on..but that would be at least 10 days off..what's for certain however is the current warm and dry spell continuing into the foreseeable (with a trace of much needed rain or drizzle, albeit not enough, this weekend)! -
Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards
WxHerts replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
-
Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards
WxHerts replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
A few towers rapidly going up to my SE now, clear skies to my west and sun just risen above accas..come onnnn -
Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards
WxHerts replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Same..haven’t done this many alarms since mid March ..not that I’m expecting much at all, but watching any sorts of developments can always be fun lol -
Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards
WxHerts replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
-
Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards
WxHerts replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Is it just me, or does this cloud floating by me at the moment look a bit like some sort of huge anvil..? (Spoiler: sadly, it isn’t)..but could be reality in a few days hehe - loving the eye candy I’ve been seeing on this thread over the last 24 hours, keep it coming!! ️ -
Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards
WxHerts replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The thunderclap on the last vid @ 0:28 is simply incredible.. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards
WxHerts replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Looks exciting, but doesn't the GFS tend to present these sorts of parameters very often 5-7 days before a plume event (particularly wrt CAPE)? Only for them to be significantly watered down within about 2-3 days before? Fingers crossed no matter what though.. -
Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards
WxHerts replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Yes..well the opposite, but yes! Often they don't pop up at all