kushty snows best

I think we know from past that it will probably will !!

Surely the air not cold enough at day 7 that the low comes into ? I'm sorry to my eye the ECM is poor going forward !

Yes my thnking too looking at the charts, models often led the way last winter not the METO long range .

Not good models this morning, toppling high and everythng looking zonal after.

But phasing of Lows has done for us many times before and you can't ignore it !

GFS run is like lot of the 0z ensembles ! Very worrying.

A lot of very mild ensembles suggesting the High to the South like yesterday later on !

Hi yes really bad news to have another like 2015-2016 !!

Regardless of the amplitude, I expect some cold weather from the SSW most likely in eastern North America and Northern Asia. However, if the predicted SSW is relatively minor with a quick recovery in the stratospheric AO, even possibly becoming strongly positive, would favor a positive tropospheric AO. Then an extended mild to very mild period across the NH mid-latitudes could ensue from late December through much of January. I would expect at some point another PV disruption that would reverse the weather to colder but by then an overall mild winter would be almost a certainty. Thanks Sebastiaan, bad news for coming winter then.

I was in Stoke on this day ! Blizzard and lots of snow