[Model output discussion - late November]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

I looked at the EC snow charts and it does showsome snow,esp NW Scotland -- but precious little elsewhere..

On a brighter note is it quite a cold run from thur until next tues with some frosty nights thrown in for good measure..

I worry that high is going to collapse into Europe though would be delighted if it doesn't..

I think we know from past that it will probably will !!

[Model output discussion - late November]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning- I hate to be the one to keep opposing the posts but this morning is very nice-

Prospects of milder atlantic weather keep getting pushed back to day 10.

Also on the latest ECM the block at 192>216 gets propped up more by low pressure moving south out of the pole-

Prospects of snow around day 7>8 with the sliding low

(Snipped)

Surely the air not cold enough at day 7 that the low comes into ? I'm sorry to my eye the ECM is poor going forward !

[Model output discussion - late November]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

If days 9 and 10 verify (thats a big if), then yes, the outlook after that will be possibly horrible.

Over to the Ens- 

Hope its not the Exeter curse...!!

Yes my thnking too looking at the charts, models often led the way last winter not the METO long range .

[Model output discussion - late November]

Not good models this morning, toppling high and everythng looking zonal after.

[Model output discussion - late November]

21 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes of course
Another rule of GFS failure. Energy separation - Watch those lows move apart in the coming runs allowing more cold in-

The cold overall from the NE is slightly moderated due to the secondary system that develops just SW of Svalbard ( all models underdeveloped that one ) - But this system ( as noted on UkMO 144 ) could come in useful later as it scoops up even colder air...

But phasing of Lows has done for us many times before and you can't ignore it !

[Model output discussion - late November]

GFS run is like lot of the 0z ensembles ! Very worrying. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into November 2019]

20 minutes ago, chris55 said:

GFS goes into the freezer with a lovely snowstorm developing in the strong northeast flow

 

An outlier towards the end but a cluster of colder scenarios gathering pace.

 

A lot of very mild ensembles suggesting the High to the South like yesterday later on !

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

42 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Jeezo, if that's really true, we might as well shut this thread down!

Hi yes really bad news to have another like 2015-2016 !!

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

Regardless of the amplitude, I expect some cold weather from the SSW most likely in eastern North America and Northern Asia.  However, if the predicted SSW is relatively minor with a quick recovery in the stratospheric AO, even possibly becoming strongly positive, would favor a positive tropospheric AO.  Then an extended mild to very mild period across the NH mid-latitudes could ensue from late December through much of January.  I would expect at some point another PV disruption that would reverse the weather to colder but by then an overall mild winter would be almost a certainty.

Thanks Sebastiaan, bad news for coming winter then.

[Autumn 2019 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hey up, anniversary of the snow! childhood winters ruled!

I was in Stoke on this day ! Blizzard and lots of snow