Griff

Looks like the evolution since would seem to trend away from this one. Interesting to observe the mood around here over the last 24 hours. As you say plenty of uncertainty beyond day 10, but I'm struggling to find anything beyond day 5 that seems to count down to 0. Constant flux, but no sustained mild period yet. I'm scratching my head a bit, thinking about the long range pro forecasts of a mild November and start to December, but I certainly have my own bias towards a colder, more seasonal winter. The signal for colder than forecast seems apparent however there's little to suggest anything very wintry over the next month...

Ha, as opposed to the long range forecasts predicting a mild November etc etc Honestly, I take it all with a pinch of salt, I'm fairly sure the weather will always do its own thing, and has a healthy contempt for the history books (and to some extent, professional weather models). However, I think everything has some value but beyond the next few days... find me a fortune teller

Fascinating to watch Gavs winter 2019/20 forecast. The analogues (like autumn of this year), drier to the North, ie Scotland, with jet much further south. Favours northern blocking...

So let me get this right, ECM similar (closer at least) to GFS this morning... A little bewildering for the newcomer...

As a newcomer (having lurked for a couple of winters), I'm curious to see how this flips back and forth over the next week as it has since last week. Lots of times I've seen people caution not to judge a trend on just one run, be it for the worst or better. I guess time will tell.

Is the last graphic showing heights towards Iceland?

Seems like some consistency a week away, heading in the right direction...

Wasn't it just under a week ago there was some brief agreement between models for the possibility of snow for this coming week? At about +10 days? It seemed then as it does now that a trend towards cold, possibly very cold and wintry is forming, but what happened to the forecast for a mild November and start to December? I've just driven from London to Oxfordshire and there's quite a frost already. My somewhat questionable app is telling me it's currently - 3°c outside. I'm about 10 miles from RAF Benson, and when it's cold it tends to get very cold out here, with freezing fog. Looking forward to waking up to white fields.

Fascinated to learn more about AAM and winter prospects...

Interesting view, and despite all the excitement here tonight you're probably still right. Any thoughts on the latest...

Met office had been nothing but mild, so the suggestion of possible cold could potentially hint at a trend towards a colder than forecast winter (certainly if the last months was anything to go by, and yes I definitely have my own bias and clutching at straws). Way beyond my understanding but interesting developments and plenty of uncertainty in the strat models too.

There seems to be a theme (IMHO in the couple of years I've been lurking, but I could be wrong) that emotions can run high when following each run, however the trends tend to point in a certain direction, which seems to have been the case over the last week. Fascinating to watch and some really helpful explanations along the way. Thank you all for your observations. Certainly hasn't been as mild as forecast even if this week starts a little warmer...

This is the wisest post all week (but I feel compelled to check each run like a nervous wreck...).

Curious isn't it? I guess as we move away from the current time to the far future the number of opportunities for tangents increases. I'm actually more surprised by curve balls that don't get predicted when they pop out of nowhere in the so called reliable time frame. I'd love to see how current models validate, is there an online tool for easily doing this?

Sounds interesting...

Hi @frosty ground apologies for my very noob question. Are veterans of this forum familiar with charts that look like this? From my very limited lurking over the last couple of years my instinct would be towards excitement at a possible Northerly, I always thought it opened the door to the cold. It had never occurred to me that there may not be cold to tap into or that it wouldn't continue to drop south. I guess the overall westerly bias wins out?

Are there any online tools to compare the evolution of a model's forecast with the actual weather of the day? I appreciate that some people post a chart and make a note to say they are logging it for future reference, as a comparison. Thanks.

I stand corrected several times They all seemed magnificent as a kid, or maybe I'm getting old and forgetful.

Ah was it the year before? 86/87? As a young child it's really hard to remember, they all seem to have blurred, also a little rose tinted... I must be getting old and senile!

I just read the mention of 1987 by Ventrice and posted in the tweet thread, very interesting.

Mention of 1987 gets my attention (I was 8 but I believe it was a cold winter).

Thanks for the pointer @Yarmy now I've got my Fantasy Island sorted too

@Mike Poole thanks for the warm welcome, and taking the time to explain, much appreciated. FYI I'm just in the foothills of the Chilterns, but mostly stuck on the M40! Fascinating times ahead, one last thing fi or FI... Obviously future and not to be taken seriously but what's it actually short for? Once upon a time I got my weather from metars and tafs...

Hi all, Long time lurker (well since 2018) but first time posting. Fascinated by how the next few months play-out, especially considering the long range winter forecasts vs recent model runs. I feel like I've learnt so much already but continue to be baffled on a daily if not hourly basis. Would love to understand the following terms in no particular order... retrogression, phasing, ridging and short-wave. Thanks, Griff.