GSP
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Posts posted by GSP
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97 mph gust now recorded at Capel Curig on xcweather.
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92 mph gust reported at Capel Curig according to xcweather.
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Don’t know what to say really.
Between now and next week at the very least on every run we will be focussing on little movements of just 50 miles in some cases which will make or break someone’s enjoyment.
Or will there be another twist in the tail?
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Must be a number of forecasts being rewritten, then rewritten again!
How on earth can you keep up with all this!
Sense says don’t tune in until Sunday now when things ‘may’ be clearer, but we won’t!
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17 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:
The amount of times I've heard that the last few days...then looked and been underwhelmed.
There should be plenty of caveats around with these models and forecasts. Events still 5 days away where just one little feature moving 50 miles can have a big say on an outcome.
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5 minutes ago, Jason M said:
Its really only felt like a couple of days worth of Cold Northerly to me, so were in the same camp I suspect.
There is still the chance though that this low will stay South and that could really dramatically impact things going forward.
Even if the low comes north I think it will be a slow process so we could see quite a few hours snow before it all goes back to rain.
Quite true. What’s left of the ‘plunge’ from the north on Sunday/Monday is still 5 days away yet, and as you say it’s not beyond the realms that low to the south may play ball to our advantage in some way.
I would not call it experience, but just viewing charts for 25 years plus says however our dominant wind direction normally has the biggest say in the end.
That’s why I prefer, certainly for here a wind from the east without any southern low intervention.
Yesterday surprisingly delivered a little more than I expected.-
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13 minutes ago, offerman said:
This is a good point about what you said about it being nailed on. There were a lot of comments about ensembles all pointing into the same direction that it was nailed on despite but GFS had wobbled and gone the other way, but turns out it looks like GFS could be correct.
I think what needs to be addressed, is that when all the ensembles are nailed on what are driving factors for such dramatic changes to something that was to a dead due to the ensembles.
I always say when it’s so far out, there’s always gonna be an inconsistency and chance that it won’t happen despite what ensembles say as the weather seems to be so fickle now super computers and symbols. Everything just seems to struggle much more now than ever.
not a criticism of anyone or computers it’s just the fact that it’s extremely difficult and I don’t know if there is anything or will be anything around that will make it more accurate, especially at this time of the year.
when we get locked into zonal patterns, they do seem to be easier to predict with low pressures just rolling in from the Atlantic non-stop at times.
and in summer high-pressure generally seem to be easier to forecast.
I think at this time of year, with so many different weather types possible from all directions, it just makes it so much more complex with all the other added factors
And remember like us it’s also with weather models.
“All it takes is one voice, singing in the darkness…..”.
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What has been startling is the loss of oomph from the cold from the north.
It did seem nailed on there would be an artic sweep well through the country, now at best we are relying on developments to the south to dictate what happens.
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16 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:
Situations like this are exactly why experienced heads are essential. Newer members viewing this will quite rightly think it's game over. Wiser heads know that GFS usually has a wobble or two at this time scale and will comes back on board after a day or two. Hopefully that's the case in this instance as well. I personally think it's a wobble, however I don't think this will be a memorable cold spell at all probably on a par with what we got up here late Nov early Dec. We got 3 days of falling snow with it sticking around for 5 days. We need the blocking to start reaserting itself soon and that's just not happening.
Or, as in a number of previous times in these circumstances, more and more models come into line, and meet in the middle with any models that disagree at that time.
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Still, there could be some good skating on flooded fields.
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All fizzling out on this run, and no surprise whatsoever it’s setting itself back towards default mild.
With such changes in the charts and still so far out, still hopeful another evolution is being sought so quite what we will be looking at as the day progresses tomorrow?
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15 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:
It's the position and strength of the Arctic high causing the slight model variations,
The general pattern looks set though, in terms on the Arctic high pushing the trop vortex south.
Is there any stats on Arctic/polar verification for the models?
Agree, it still hasn’t quite worked it out yet.
Feel, as usual we are going to need a bit of luck with this still though.
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The latter stages of GFS are coming out which will probably show a westerly restored.
Encouraged by this chart on the 12z. Well defined low to the south of us and that spoiler high from the west is holding off on this one.
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Never say this country doesn’t have any deflector shields!
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2 hours ago, Met4Cast said:
Yeah I have no words,.
This is why we all do this, charts like this is precisely why we go through the pain of this every single year. Unbelievable Jeff.
Waiting for a weather VR package to be created. We could have charts then experience the weather with no breakdowns, hiccups, spoilers.
We get what we ordered!-
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1 minute ago, Spah1 said:
Hopefully this
will lead to this
Haha.
If we did get hit with something like that, we would not survive, not this country which reels under 1cm sometimes.
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14 minutes ago, Frigid said:
-10-15C uppers with slack winds.. Potentially -4C highs with widespread lows in minus double digits. From a low point to the coldest run we've seen this winter, it's astonishing to see how the 6z progressed. All JFF for now, but very encouraging to see repeated low points in the MO still produce a great end. I can't recall ever seeing these charts in January, truly fascinating.
I’ve seen ‘too good to be true’ charts for January, which ended up as mild south westerlies come the time.
We are so far out still. The theme is much the same which is encouraging, but I’m seeing little changes which may be important come the time.
Take this one, all it would need is a little shift north and it’s game over, but hoped to be proved wrong.
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Just now, LightningLover said:
January 1940 says 'Hello!'
That top one is a “Day After Tomorrow” slide.
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7 minutes ago, okidoke said:
We always do this. .. get over excited to soon I remember years a very similar set up all models showed cold .. and snow then 1 Member showed mild .. .and the flip was insane so remember nothing is set in stone till you actually see it and feel it lol
“and snow then 1 Member showed mild..”
All it takes is one voice, singing in the darkness…
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16 minutes ago, NorthYorksWeather said:
Me viewing the afternoon runs
After viewing weather sites for 20 years plus now, this sums up my take as it stands.
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15 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:
The cold front did reach right down across Europe
Thanks Jo. On the 2nd chart, looking at everything that appears to be connected back to the centre of the storm, it’s reach appears to have been felt from Finland to North Africa.
Quite a reach in the end from the initial focus around our country and France.
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Did Storm Ciaran affect Italy? The last I saw of it it was heading NE up the North Sea and filling?
Storm Ciarán: Floods ravage Tuscany leaving three dead
WWW.BBC.CO.UK
Three people are confirmed dead and six more are missing as heavy winds and rain buffet central Italy.-
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25 minutes ago, Fitzwis said:
This is devastating. Many of the trees on South Hill in St Helier have stood tall and proud for longer than I dare to remember, surviving many a windstorm, until now
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No doubt St Helier Parks and Gardens will rejuvenate the area for future generations to enjoy
So sad to see. With trees snapped and in that condition, looks like the same or another tornado passed through to me.
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9 minutes ago, matty40s said:
...and of course those who dont think the weather warnings apply to them.
I expect we’ll see this loon for many years to come in various extreme weather programmes.
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Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Went to bed around 1am with some potent little storms trundling their way east to west up the Estuary.
Then the next thing it was around 3.30-4am and the real show started with frequent lightning, though we didn’t get any close boomers that can force their way into your chest as you lie there.
Of real note however was the noise and intensity of the rain. Thank goodness that did not last too long, it felt like it would do damage and I will be checking the loft later for starters.