emax

Posted at the same time haha. Yeh, most scientists say up to 18 months for these things, but I suspect they're covering themselves a bit. It'll probably be a fair bit quicker, but if they said it'll be ready in 6 months, and it wasnt, they'd be shot down and probably sued left right and centre! In these unprecedented times, I should imagine Autumn is doable, but very unlikely.....who knows. We cant compare it to other vaccines really, because nothing like this has happened with the current medical and scientific expertise the world currently has, so you'd be surprised what can be accomplished (if its deemed necessary)

First human trial for coronavirus vaccine begins Monday in the US WWW.CNBC.COM The trial is taking place at the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute in Seattle, Washington, where cases have surged in recent weeks. Whether it is actually a usable or viable vaccine is anyone's guess, but that's what they say anyway.

Apparently had the old bill at our local big Tesco at the weekend, trying to keep the peace lol. I havent been shopping since this all blew up, and I'm happy to wait until all the dumb sheep have run out of space in their cupboards.

My local Tesco Extra has already started doing this, but dont know how widespread that is

Human trials wont start till June/July, so its not a given by any means. Still a tall order to have a usable vaccine ready for everyone by the Autumn. I'm not saying it isnt possible, but with several other vaccines being developed, and imminently going onto monkey/human trials (USA already started human trials), its a bit too early to be saying Germany will save the day lol.

There's several potential vaccines being tested out there in the world, so its not just Germany.

Whether it actually makes a lot of difference or not, but if you go by the population size, USA isnt doing as bad considering they have a population of over 300million, vs the bigger European countries at around 60-70 million. Spain only has 40-50 million, so they are in the lead in that respect. Again, thats assuming cases per population is relevant vs overall cases.

What Russian situation lol? There's always things like that going on, its nothing new really.

Thats actually still quite low really.

I guess most people obviously arent aware then, but I'd heard from several teachers at different schools, that the plan has always been to be ready to close for Friday this week.

But they are the exact dilemmas facing every country right now???

He doesnt specify the exact percentage of critical care beds, whether that 90% is critical care beds, or just spread across both etc. Either way, it probably wont be the beds that are a problem (as they can be increased easily to a point) it'll be the staff and critical care equipment that will most likely fall short.

I dont see what your point is? I'm only discussing the figure of 20,000 that was suggested. If that doesn't include extra deaths as a result of ICU beds being full etc, then obviously it ends up being worse. As I say, I'm just discussing the figure of 20,000, not speculating or second guessing about what ifs etc.

Oh yeh, I'm not downplaying that significance, however, IF (big if) the 20,000 ends up being accurate, then that is still tiny in the grand scheme of things. Yes it would make it 3rd highest, but only in one average year, whereas dementia and heart disease would still be higher EVERY single year.

I'd be very surprised if thats accurate. They should really remove the number, or at least put something next to it stating its accuracy. I mean it "may" be correct, but with all the testing capacity we have, I doubt they're prioritising testing if people have officially recovered or not, certainly those who arent in hospital at least.

I'm not saying we can or cant keep it to that number, but if we can, and thats presumably over 6 months or something, that isnt actually a huge number really. On average 300,000 people die every 6 months for perspective. Even if it was over a 1 month period, its big, but not out of this world shocking. 50,000 people die every month. Again, not saying his figures will be right or wrong, just commenting on those particular figures.

How do you know it wasnt? These things dont happen over night!

Thing is though, you could have a million beds and respirators, but it wouldn't make a blind bit of difference to the number of people in ICU (at this early stage anyway). So Germany's numbers are either well out of date, they've got a miraculous cure that gets people out of ICU in a couple of days, or their population are way way more healthier. Most likely just figures not updated.

PLEASE PLEASE actually read things before sharing them. It has NOTHING to do with the virus!

Thats a good point. Obviously schools are a very hot topic of opinions, but to me, as you say, if someone is asymptomatic, then they arent coughing all over the place, therefore much less likely to spread the virus vs someone who does have a cough etc.

This is copied from facebook. I never trust whether its actually from someone in the NHS or whatever, and whether it is actually an official plan or not, but, its a very good explanation of a possible plan none the less. "I work for the NHS. I am going to try and fill in the gaps from the governments plan for corona virus and to try & explain it: The plan is to segregate all vulnerable people (older, ill, disabled and at risk) let’s call this group A Anyone looking after the older, ill and at risk can be group B The general population / generally healthy can be group C Group C needs to go about it’s business keeping the country moving, kids at school, us at work Group B looks after group A and avoids contact with C Group C is allowed to contract the virus and because it’s generally healthy it can cope with it better than group A Group A and B are almost self isolating without the virus to avoid putting strain on the NHS and reducing the risk of getting the virus and then needing the NHS Group C (the generally healthy) go through the cycle of contracting the virus self isolating and being looked after by healthy family members, friends and the local community Anyone who has complications gets looked after by the NHS while groups A and B are kept away The NHS are not strained by A and B while its looking after complicated cases in C As group C comes full circle and recovers it divides in to groups that take group B’s position looking after group A allowing group B to go though the cycle With B and C though the cycle, A is free to have NHS to itself because B and C are now clear from illness and infection and hopefully have a degree of immunity from getting it again this season. Hope this helps those that are worried or not sure of the plan Everyone has a job to do for the above to work."

And? People really really need to take some initiative if they are so concerned! Its either down to you or your employer to decide in your case. I appreciate people expect the government to wipe their bums for them, but there needs to be at least a modicum of self reliance. I know the economic side of things is very difficult to balance vs deaths, I really do understand, but, I feel France (and maybe UK too depending how things pan out) is going to be suffering the economic consequences of their plans for years and years. Hopefully I'm wrong, or maybe they are fully justified, but where is the 300 billion euros coming from?

I thought they did, thats why generally a virus has a low mortality rate?

He was being classed as being, in some way, an expert on behavioural science, which he is not. His usual field of work seems just as useful as philosophy to me, just by the way he works. Despite the fact he's up there with some of the more "extreme" people out there, I still dont see how he can be classed as an expert compared to behavioural science, but you have your agenda, so thats fine, we'll leave it there.

Exactly. Now I'm in no way saying that our experts are right per se, but they are at least experts. All this talk of "experts" signing petitions, when actually the majority of them are not experts, but simply scientists or doctors......but a scientist is not an expert by default lol