al78
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Posts posted by al78
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20 minutes ago, Nick L said:
This evening's EC...for those of you who are rightly dissatisfied with this spring, do not look at it.
The Met Office 6-30 day outlook gives a smidgen of hope. Temperatures will most likely be around average for the timne of year (13th - 27th May). Clutching at straws a bit I know.
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29 minutes ago, markyo said:
You certainly have reason to moan!! Very challenging and i'm sure the out look coupled with this April has been shocking. Fingers crossed for folk like yourself things improve. As for the others who moan....well they should try and understand how badly the weather can effect folk such as yourself before going on about how they feel frigidly cold in in slight breeze in lovely blue skied dry April weather!
Thanks, I do occasionally moan but know in the grand scheme of things my gardening frustrations are trivial, a privilige of living in a wealthy country and having a job. There are people in the world who die when the weather departs significantly from the norm. I do recognise some positives of the very dry April. Slug activity is down and invasive perennial weeds like creeping buttercup are notable by their scarcity (last years prolonged dry spell knocked that down I think), I would be fighting to keep on top of them in a normal spring. Country walking conditions underfoot have been excellent, such a contrast to the sticky mess that footpaths turn into during autumn and winter. The cool weather also made conditions perfect for a loop up Black Hill, Peak District over Easter. 12 miles and a few hundred meters climbing and didn't break a sweat thanks to a very fresh and pleasant wind up on the moor.
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On 25/04/2021 at 20:02, damianslaw said:
Any correlation between very dry April's and generally poor summers, in recent years? Just thinking of the likes of 1987, 2007, 2011 and 2020.. all were followed by average or poor summers overall, with alot of rain here at least, but at least in 2020 the dry weather held through May and well into June.... not a fan of prolonged dry weather in April, a harbinger of poor summer. Going further back 1974 was bone dry April and a very poor summer followed. 1997 was very dry as well, and whilst very warm, a very wet summer followed...
I've looked at this using HadCET and HadUKP data. There is no significant correlation.
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On 25/04/2021 at 16:11, markyo said:
I'm struggling to understand why folk are moaning so much, its ONLY April after all.
From an allotment gardener's perspective:
1. We've had as many frosts this month as we normally have in a full winter.
2. The lack of rain is stalling plant growth.
3. The carrot seeds I sowed earlier this month have failed. The potatoes I planted at the end of March have failed. This is almost certainly due to cold soil temperatures thanks to repeated freezing nights, in Southern England, in the middle of Spring.
4. I am wanting to start French beans and squash indoors, but I can't until the weather stops behaving like mid winter, which means I will have a late and reduced crop.
5. I will run out of stored rainwater next month, despite having over a cubic meter of it initially, if we don't return this semi-arid climate to whoever it was stolen from.
6. I had this crap last year when I had to keep manually dumping gallons of water on my crops because it refused to rain for three quarters of the spring and much of June. It is a joke when somewhere not far from me gets three inches of rain in five months, this is the UK, not the Sahel.
7. It would be nice, for once, to have a year where I didn't have to deal with one or more damaging extremes.
8. It is concerning the UK weather seems to be losing its high frequency variability and shifting to a state where locked in weather patterns become the norm. This is going to make things challenging for agriculture in general, not just gardening, and is destructive for many people when the locked in pattern shifts to flooding rains.
I expect April in south east England to be mild, unsettled with a handful of pleasantly warm days, not like the Cairngorm plateau in June. It is not unrealistic or excessive to hope for a near average month.
These are reasons I am complaining. I'm just glad I am not a subsistence farmer, because otherwise I would be starving to death by now with the crappy nonsense the UK weather has thrown at us over the last decade.
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23 hours ago, qwertyK said:
Wow. We're nearly at the end of April and we still haven't had 20C this month. Had it not been for the warm spell at the end of March we'd still be waiting for our first 20C day. This april feels very cold, especially compared to last year.
It has felt cold because it has been cold. Here in W Sussex the first half of the month was little more than a slightly milder version of January or February in terms of temperature. It has warmed up nicely by day over the last week but the ridiculous number of frosts is a nuisance for growing veg on my allotment. I sowed carrot seeds a couple of weeks ago, not one single seedling showed, the repeated near freezing overnight temperatures means the soil is STILL too cold for germination, in southern England in mid spring . An additional challenge is that like last year, the UK has stolen someone elses semi-arid climate and we are trying to find out who it belongs too so we can return it, preferably before I start planting stuff out. The one good thing is the sunshine totals are way up after the miserable damp autumn and winter. Walking on footpaths is wonderful compared to a couple of months ago, the churned up bog-fests are now rock hard.
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5 hours ago, Bald Eagle said:
Crying with laughter about how gfs is wrong and this model this and this model that over on the model creche.... its a computer programme! The weather will do what it wants !
No, it is bounded by the laws of physics, the Navier Stokes equations beaing amongst them, which computer programmes aim to approximate in order to predict the weather. They do a decent job up to nearly a week ahead.
It is the same on weather forums across the web, thunderous orgasms whenever a couple of models suggest a freezing spell with heavy snow ten or 15 days ahead, with apparently no regard for model skill at those lead times.
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6 hours ago, YellowSnow said:
And we know those outcomes are about as rare as unicorn in a temperate climate like ours.
I suspect they are slowly becoming rarer, as our climate warms and it takes more and more extreme synoptics to bring proper cold air and significant snow. Back in February 2010 there was a day when it rained all day and the temperature never got above 2C. I couldn't help thinking 50 or 60 years ago that same setup would have dropped nearly a foot of snow.
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On 23/01/2021 at 19:27, ManiaMuse said:
Felt noticeably lighter this evening, things do start to pick up quickly through the end of January and February.
The frustrating thing though with the way the clocks go forward/backwards is that by the end of this week on the 30th/31st we will be at the equivalent sunset time (16:48/16:50) to the first evening after the clocks went back on 25 October (16:49) . Yet because we have to wait for the last weekend of March for the clocks to go back forward we don't get parity with the last evening before the clocks back (17:51) until 3/4 March (17:50/17:52). If they moved the clocks forward at the end of January then we would already have the same sunset times as the end of October before the clocks went back but instead we have to wait another 4-5 weeks to catch up in the evenings!
I know mornings take longer to get lighter again but I really think that it should be more balanced around the Autumn/Spring equinoxes. By the time the clocks go forward sunset is already ridiculously early (5:54 here).
Sorry didn't mean to start the annual clocks changing debate but I guess someone has to do it.
I think it is done because the weather in October is milder than in February and March, so more likely to be able to make use of lighter evenings. If I had the choice I'd like the clocks to go forward at the end of February, which would reduce the number of dark commutes home from work without making the sunrise excessively late in the morning, it would be symmetrical about the winter solstice so the sunrise and sunset time would change back to the equivalent at the end of October.
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Just now, Lynxus said:
Horses need wellies
Unfortunately my bike didn't come with an amphibious conversion kit. Had to turn back and use the main road to get to Barns Green.
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If cold weather is on the way, it would be nice if it could, for once, be dry and sunny with it. This photo of a bridleway half a mile from my house sums up the general depressing crapness of winters in West Sussex.
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2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:
I agree. it's been a better Winter than we normally get, we're just missing that more deep cold and longevity.
It depends very much on your location. Here in Horsham it has been a depressing winter. Dull, cold, but not cold enough for snow. The worst of all worlds, virtually no snow but cold enough to ramp up the heating bills. If we are going to have severe sunshine rationing and no wintry weather I'd rather have a winter like last year, no danger of coming off my bike on ice.
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Cold, dull and virtually snowless. I don't count one morning with a dusting of snow that isn't enough to give a complete covering thawing in an hour a significant or exciting snow event. At least the daylight hours are noticably increasing now.
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This is the dullest, most snowless prolonged cold spell I can remember. Normally in cold spells there are crisp cold sunny mornings, but this winter has carried on the gloomfest of autumn. The most sun I have seen recently was when I visited my father in Salford over Christmas. Might as well be living in northern Scandinavia with the many days of very low light levels these last few months.
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10 hours ago, LRD said:
I agree with much of that but not the bit I've bolded. I'm well aware of many of my childhood winters that were a bit 'meh' (but still would have had at least a week of snow even in the more boring winters - 1982-83 for example had some snow in Feb in an otherwise unspectacular winter). But I have menmories of 81-82 and the numbers and reports back me up. 84-85, 85-86 and 86-87 were all very good too as was 90-91 and 95-96 and Dec 96. So I'm not looking at this with nostalgic eyes. It's just fact.
It's like summers - I remember the bad ones as well as the good ones
The bit you bolded is a known phenomenon. People do look back on their childhood with a bias. The reason is that cold snowy winters mean you are out sledging, having snowball fights, and having a more memorable time. Hot sunny summers mean you are playing on the beach or playing football outside. In other words, having a more memorable day. Slate grey days with the rain pouring down for hours whilst you sit indoors reading a book are not likely to stick in the mind decades later, despite that characterising much of the UK weather in the GMT portion of the year.
Nostalgia and Rose Colored Glasses: Why Past Times Aren't Always Better.
WWW.THELUCIDGUIDE.COMNostalgia and Rose Colored Glasses: Why Past Times Aren't Always Better. Thinking about calling your old ex? Missing the good old college days? Here is why we always remember the past better than it was. Let’s... -
1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:
I totally forgotten what is a cold spell again ?
It is that period when contributors on weather forums across the net start having perpetual orgasms over the GFS forecasts, and when people (usually living in the north of England/Scotland) falsely claim the south of England grinds to a halt from an inch of snow.
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2 minutes ago, mathematician said:
So what? That has nothing to do with the fact that Global Warming is real and scientifically proven. People make millions selling cars. Does that mean that they are not real?
Climate denier! LOL
Maybe you are right and I am too gullible , believe it or not I even believe we have been on the moon! How silly of me!
It is laughable the implication that global warming must be made up because someone somewhere makes money because of it, whilst ignoring the billions made from consumption of fossil fuels and spreading lies and disinformation.
In any case, you can;t convince someone of the truth of something, when there salary or identity demands it is false.
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Here are timeseries of the CET for December January and February 1900-2020 (2019 for December). There have been small upward trends in all winter months, but note the interannual variability is an order of magnitude larger, so it would be premature to claim the UK can't get severe cold periods in winter any more or in the future.
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5 minutes ago, LRD said:
I think you're saying exactly what me and the Met Office are saying but in a different way. I don't think we're disagreeing at all. The bit you've said that I've bolded essentially is saying that snow is less and less likely cos the conditions have to be almost perfect
Yes we agree, what I am clarifying is I don't think snowy periods in UK winters will disappear entirely, just that the return period will increase, similarly the return period for extreme summer heat will decrease.
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27 minutes ago, Relativistic said:
That string of 80s Winters (1981-1987) were not typical for the 20th century, but very much on the cold side. If you grew up then then maybe your expectations are a tad too high. I was a teenager during the 2009-2013 run and I came to expect frequent snowfalls and prolonged cold spells every year. Winter 2013/14 was a real shock to the system; the idea of no lying snow at any point during the Winter was unfathomable!
I was born in 1978 and I remember snowy periods when I was in primary school, making slides and rolling big snowballs. Your past memories are going to be a product of where you were brought up. I was born and raised in Salford which tends to be one of the last places to get snow if there is a cold snap, and when it does get snow it is the 1-2 inches that thaws within a day (like lowland southern England). It takes a proper severe winter spell to get substantial snow around lowland Gtr Manchester, something like Dec 1995 or Dec/Jan 2010. My past weather memories is biased toward the 1990's decade which was characterised by positive NAO winters, mild, wet, stormy, and a couple of superb summers in 1995 and 1996 (the former a bit too good).
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1 hour ago, Nick L said:
This has been a grim December so far, and I really don't hold out much hope for the rest of the month. I echo the thoughts above about being fed up of the mud!
There are puddles on the grass verges near me which have been there so long, they will be added to the next edition of the OS maps.
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4 hours ago, LRD said:
There were people mocking the Met Office for saying that snow will be a thing of the past by the 2040s if global warming is not slowed down. Calling it propaganda. Well, all you need to see is what's gone before and with the trajectory we are on - and have been since the last 80s - that is a very real possibility
I personally think that is overstating it, Polar and Arctic air masses will still exist in winter in the 2040's, those regions are still going to be cold enough. It is just the conditions to advect the cold across to the UK along with moisture and uplift required for snow rather than sleet and rain are going to need to be even more optimal than now, so the frequency of major snowfalls will decrease.
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4 hours ago, LRD said:
Vortex over Greenland - UK mild and wet in winter
Vortex not over Greenland - UK mild and wet in winter
Hugely impressive negative AO forecast - the charts are showing mild and wet for the UK
I know the climate has changed and continues to warm but you'd think we'd still get some winters of note every so often
We will, but there is no denying that a warming climate will make significant snow events less likely, and they were never very likely to begin with, despite the nostalgia bias claiming all winters in your grandmothers day were cold and snowy. The UK has always been marginal for lying snow in winter, because cold air masses are almost always near the freezing point when they arrive here, so you need several conditions to come together for widespread prolonged snowfall, which is low probability. It is the same with summer heat, there is a reason 35+C doesn't happen often. Having said that, by the laws of probability, very cold air masses will bring a decent snowfall to large parts of the UK, because the near continent will always be cold enough in an average winter, so strong cold advection from the continent combined with a Biscay low running into the cold air will bring heavy and disruptive snow to the southern counties. The thing is now, with a warmer climate than 50 years ago, what would have brought heavy snow back then might only bring cold rain and sleet now because we are always marginal for proper snow. There was a day in February 2010 when it rained all day and the temperature was 1-2C. I couldn't help thinking at the time that if it had been the 1960's, the south would have had nearly a foot of snow.
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59 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:
In my location I didn't think November was too bad, we did have some sunny days and it was drier than normal but it feels we're back in the rut of not seeing any sun and most days are grey and damp and now looks like becoming somewhat milder...winter's over!
It has been pretty bad in Sussex. According to the Met Office monthly anomaly maps my area had no more than half the average sunshine in October and November combined, and December is turning into the third consecutive dull month. For five months of the year the UK climate is something to endure.
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The only good thing about November is it hasn't been as wet as October, but I can't remember a two month period where I've had to have the lights on indoors all day so many times. Oh hang on, yes I do, it was last autumn.
It has been an odd month, the frequent, almost persistent overcast has kept the overnight temperatures elevated, sometimes to the point where there is only a 2-3 degree variation between the max and the min. It has been a month to endure and just get through, at least I will enjoy some of the Christmas festivities in December no matter what the weather does.
Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Well there is that, but it has gone too far the other way. Temperature in my house 14C a day away from May in south east England.