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Justin1705

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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     Jordan S 

     

    Thanks you for your reply. Yea upon checking other models there is no feature or if there is very light and in the North Sea. I would settle for falling snow at this point🤣 I’ll be keeping an eye on the feature moving north tonight in my area as I’m 550ft ASL, so when it’s snowing here its raining down the road 😊 thanks for your explanation, I appreciate it. Was some sleet today mixed in with the heavier PPN in luton. But only ice accumulation on my jumper, and obvious ice splats on my lorry windscreen. Good luck to all hoping to see some falling snow ( possibly ) tonight 

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Gfs interested in some widespread show Sunday ? Has anyone else noticed this. And what’s up with the complete disagreement across models, in the short term? I’m just an occasional model viewer, just about now how to view them. But gfs has been suggesting snow this weekend for a while, then changing run by run. Probably won’t happen. But that’s widespread heavy snow if it does no?

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    • Like 1

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, Snowangel-MK said:

    Another very cold night and day tomorrow to come, even without snow I’d keep this rather than what’s coming by Sunday - hopefully looking at this we will miss the worst of it ! 

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    Who knows, the met seem to forecast the opposite a week out with such confidence 🤣 why they don’t just wait until 48-72 hours before I don’t know. There were and still are, models showing strong winds across the board into London and S+E It’s like the fella telling everyone last week that it was most likely to see disruptive significant snow in the south, a week later, because our variety in ensembles, it didn’t happen. I can understand the high impact low risk side, but when the models aren’t in agreement why would they even highlight potential events a week before knowing full well it’s most likely subject to change. I can see that warning being extended eastwards, as per there normal adjustments.

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Challock Weather said:

    I believe it may just be starting to appear in the SW Approaches. Not enough showing to make a call yet

    It’s NOT going to happen, unless you’re in Brighton then there’s a chance. The only chance for anything further north is from the decaying front sinking south tomorrow morning. Just how much moisture is available from this is unclear, but would only be a dusting if anything. Good luck to all but give up on the front being further north. Just look at the PPN already being shunted eastward, the front will follow suite when it hits the northerly. If by some miracle it does snow tommorow. I’ll take it back, but I think you’re holding on to false hope. Even if it does scrape the southcoast, it will be slush on immediate coasts, and only a few CM’s inland. Most likely to stay in northern France or the channel.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Much further north for the snow in the south! Got to be honest I’d rather this setup than it being marginal AF ! At least this way we know if it does push into  south England it will fall as snow. Rather than the low being placed on the south coast giving a slush fest for all! Can someone tell me if the models pushed the low further south due to the potential low on Tuesday in northern areas? So if this low on Tuesday doesn’t push as far south as they predict, would this in turn allow the front to push further north in the south? 

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    • Like 2

    SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I do think the worst or best depending on how you view it is over. However as the coldest air moves west, a few models, including bbc forecast and met office forecasts, hint at a slight uptick in shower activity across C England and N London as it follows the warmer dew points west. As others have pointed out the drier air will inhibit convection, but a little later in the evening, the far east has probably seen there best, but anyone in London, West Sussex, beds bucks and herts, could see some slightly heavier flurries than of earlier! Of course no accumulations but I wouldn’t miss it as it might be all we get 🤣 it has been snowing all day here since twelve but only the loose dandruff in the air type ! Hopefully a taster of what could come next week…. Some models to make people feel better. Hope hall had a great day! And just remember uk is most likely to see snow between January- march so still very much in the game ! Peace out all ! See you next week?

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    • Like 3

    Storms and Convective discussion - September 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, ChannelThunder said:

    Pinch of salt time. 

    UKV tomorrow 8pm:

    image.thumb.png.0bae03e8b9183bdda3dbf5c62b9fe6f1.png

     

    This lot turns into quite the organised band of storms as it pushes northwards later in the night. 

    Just seen the UKV great for luton. However it’s egged on quite alot this year. Fingers crossed for a nice light show. Night time storms are the best for me. Love the milliseconds of day time light produced from lightning. The last time I remember the best country wide. S to N storms was 2016. If that chart was to come off would be pretty similar. 

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, Eagle Eye said:

    Behind the cold front, the LCL's are lowered and the moisture is still there. As long as they stay close enough to the cold front they will have more shearing (shearing being parallel to the cold front) but slightly less CAPE. Could see some decent storms possibly depending on the exact CAPE.

    Fingers crossed then!! It’s been a really hot humid day, and hopefully as the cold front moves through as it is now, could see some sparks ! Sounds good 👌 I’m now awaiting fresher air! Thunder or no thunder 22/23 is fine for me lol

     

    Thanks for that 🙂

    • Like 2

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    I’ve been quite lucky so far this year. Lovely visible CG in the same direction of the other day! Didn’t catch the bolt but caught the rolling thunder. So fresh I’m just enjoying watching with my eyes rather than a camera!!! As it moved in hell of a lot of low level cloud that felt as if there was some rotation to it! Wind picked up substantially too as it moved through !

     

    Good luck all no more chances this week as far as I can see !

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Nice CG moments before I captured this, impressive rainfall tho! First CG of the year. Loud shotgun floor shaking thunder! Happy days. Needa clearing behind this which could help build sufficient surface heating for later on, but as always is usually followed by immense cloud ! I’m not moaning tho I’ve had my fix and welcome the sun back now 🙂

    1500kj of cape sounds impressive but only if the sun can come out. Models did point to storms breaking out following this main band of dynamic rain, but now have given up on that idea, is this what we are getting now or is there more to follow 👀 time will tell! It’s so much fresher now tho, fresher than it has been for a while. Ps RIP the washing but I’m not getting soaked for no one 😂😂

     

     

    • Like 5

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Quite a pokey little cell on the back end of the frontal rain in luton. Couple of flashes a minute and loud shotgun thunder! Nice suprise for this morning. I think east Essex north Kent will have a cracker ! And as mentioned as the day warms could help them strengthen momentarily as it moves north north east !

     

    love a suprise it feels so fresh today 🙂

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Just now, Harsh Climate said:

    I've not seen a good storm in about 20 years, not asking for much just to see a few good bolts of lightning.

    Yeah, whenever its cloudy all day the chances of a good storm are usually nill, you can get away with it if it's only your region but not when the cloud is covering the whole UK.. 

    agreed. Last year 18th of may I was at Brighton and we had a cracker probably the best I’ve seen in a while. But the best one I’ve ever seen was in Mallorca where the hotel was flooded after 20minutes and constant CG’s striking the mountain next to us rattling the room. I don’t think we generate enough energy for storms like that unfortunately

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

    To be honest I thought it was just going to be a mass thundery rain evet with few sporadic bursts lightening. Not sure where all these experts have come up with chance of severe surface based storms today, with damaging hail, weak tornados.. Just didn't look on to me.

    I posted this morning, still Optimistic, but when I saw the mess coming out of north France didn’t expect much, has hindered way to many other chances to be disregarded as a storm hamperer ! Oh well this week looks to hold some more chances. My eyes on Tuesday morning ! I can’t moan as I got the start of that huge storm across the midlands last week. Had my fix but would always love another.

     

    yes I think even some of the more experienced people were well aware it would affect things but I don’t think they were expecting it to this extent, even tho the radar looks impressive right now the thunderstorms are weak and really just SLIGHT chance today. The ingredients were there but as we know the crud following that huge storm in France all day has stopped anything noteworthy. Probably reducing surface heating ultimately reducing SB CAPE. Which led to popcorn storms which aren’t extremely active, more like an April showers day with a bit of humidity!

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Petorious said:

    Have another look, east of oxford and and a line along the north edge of the M25. 🙂

    Was a breeding ground last weekend between you and me lol, fingers crossed its more better positioned today 🙂

    Yea I know we got the first half of that monster of a storm ! However today think may be similar let’s hope we will get something nice. It looks rather explosive as it goes looking at the sky now! Nice to see surface convection against mid and high level instability! My favourite kind of setup. Usually bodes well!

    Storms and Convective discussion - June 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Well, initiation is evident now across north London and into midlands! I’m in Luton so hopefully get a mature storm and not a breeding ground. I’m looking south now and can actually watch the cumulus growing up and out with the naked eye. By 2 I think we will be well established as forecast ! Most models pointed towards 14/15z anyway ! No bust we have a go. Enjoy ?

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