Eagle Eye

The child is a king, the carollers sing The old has passed, there's a new beginning Dreams of Santa, dreams of snow Fingers numb, faces aglow Oh, it's Christmas time, mistletoe and wine Children singing Christian rhyme With logs on the fire and gifts on the tree A time to rejoice in the good that we see

Oh ok It's the morning I'll let myself off, can't wait for another run of fun hopefully Pattern keeps getting better, at 240 hours 45 or so members show snow further south than Scotland so something is afoot by the looks of it

I probably wouldn't say this is a SSW event (not that I've checked really hard) but it's more like a PV split event

I'll post some of the best members at day 15 whilst we're waiting because they're about as ridiculous as you expect Just imagine if any of these came off

My heart says My head says The models say The Express says The Telegraph says

UKMO has a similar evolution to the ECM Another thing to note is that the GFS hasn't been performing as well as the ECM recently ECM evolution up to the 22nd UKMO evolution up to the 22nd I think this deserves a BOOM

The most damaged part of it, preliminary rating EF4 and high end potentially Could see this becoming an EF5

The CFS has gone off on one as always

How I love Canadian's

30, I'd say about 12 have a good option for coldies but just to be aware I'm still going for a high to be stuck over Britain at that point but yesterday only about 5 showed cold for around that time (could I be any more contradictory in this post, probably not)

Thought there would be some crazy charts within the members for Christmas day, didn't realise how many there would be though I think my favourite has to be member 9 though (Member 4 gives an incredible output at the end of the run) Some craziness on offer today, welcome to true Winter snow chasing

Looks to be even further looking today I guessed at around 250 miles when looking at the radar, will be interesting to see

The longer the high stays the better, it gives a chance for energy to build up in the easterly parcel and much cooler air to hit from the east which is essentially what happened in 2018 only this looks like it could block for longer from the last few runs sort of 'average per se' (which is what we need right now as the air was much colder most likely back then because of the time of year whereas we're just entering Winter right now that event was ending Winter and Winter's end much colder than they start in my little experience), so as a mini summary I would say that it could do with a little more towards Greenland and to hold for longer than some people might think for it to be a great event

I had to find a way to incorporate this somehow Colder air racing to undercut the higher air before it expands too much

Easterly energy has been picking up on the models recently, be interesting to see closer to time The gradient and momentum of an easterly flow can also determine a lot as to the impact it has (that goes with any parcel of air though)

The momentum within the parcel of air is very important as well in my opinion

Easterly QBO clashing with La Nina clashing with the Polar Vortex is a recipe for model disaster

Picked out a couple members Look at those -10 uppers on that last one, YES PLEASE

You beauty!!! I can see the potential for it to move that direction at day 10 with a sort of 'crunch'

What did I miss whilst I was looking at the tornado outbreak? Oh right, everything, here's my quick catch up then Slowly moving as we go forwards with a slow cooling shown on the ensembles with the potential for an easterly flow in the models once again Just a short round up for now

But I'm in the south not the north Yes certainly looking interesting, is the way I would describe it, a lot of chopping and changing to come I feel despite the fairly simple pattern from the outside view in my opinion it's very complicated and every mile change matters.

They've always been there this year I think This has now gone much further than the tri-state tornado did (250 miles roughly including occasional lift-ups) there was rapid circulation and the radar was incredible. Interested to see the rating it's given from the damage survey reports (assuming they haven't done it yet)

We may just have broken the record for the longest tracking tornado in history (not sure whether it's official yet or not) the tornado lasted for 3-4 hours and tracked roughly 235-260 miles