Eagle Eye

Few small showers here with some building cumulus. Instability showing,

In fact elevated in the next few hours as night falls. Channel doesn't help energy but the energy should move across with it.

biddie Should turn elevated.

Rough direction of travel.

New storm in the channel maybe. Looks like a false strike through.

Alderc 2.0 We do in the south east but it's the French one. Wish we did have access to our own dopplers yeah.

Should survive for a while. Very interesting.

Following this storm it's quite close to me but a bit more western flow in the channel. It's the western most storm thats close to us at the moment.

Suspect there will be more ahead as night falls with elevated CAPE moving in. How much though, again, we'll have to wait and see.

viking_smb Paris stuff moving towards Sussex but stuff behind it a bit more east. Could well spread west and east around the channel area.

Best guess of direction.

It's building right now. But we'll still have to wait till at least the channel to really have that much of an idea. Unfortunately as is often the case with these, we're going to have to have a lot of patience.

Mapantz Don't bother with the models now that we can see what'll potentially hit us anyway. Some accas still around here but the calm now here. Hopefully the one before the storm.

ChannelThunder Most if not all models have struggled with those so I think it's about nowcasting models haven't given us much help with this.

I'd say everyone. Wait till 9 then look again. Lots of waiting around if you don't. From that time onwards it seems to become interesting for looking at exact and motions. Storms will weaken and new storms will form still over France.

Belgium doing better than expected. France seems to be later than expected and a bit weaker and further south. I might begin turning my eyes to Belgium in the SE. wouldn't be surprised if we randomly saw northern France go big though, potentially more capping in place than expected. Won't know what that means exactly for us yet.

Current developments suggest the central south and slightly further west than most models are in with a shout but Belgium is well on course as well. Hopefully this continues to evolve.

Convective Outlook (tomorrow afternoons risk to come tomorrow) ️ An upgliding theta-E ejection on the east side and parallel to a northwestward moving warm front should allow for an MCS to approach the south coast overnight with Supercellular activity possible mainly with feeding cells on the eastern side of the storm. Frequent lightning, 40,000 feet tall storms, some severe hail and some flash flooding are all possible. Linear development should take place after initial surface development over France evolves from surface to elevated during the evening. With dry warm air, or on slightly less capped models a warm nose, intruding at the 925hPa level, a surface inversion layer forms and without surface heating as night falls, convection is very likely to transition to elevated well past the boundary layer where significant ascent begins to be forced with the development of stronger lapse-rates and a potential vorticity lobe stretches out to help with development into a full on linear MCS. As it hits the south coast, the far eastern extent of the MCS may develop more significant potential with slightly lower LCL’s and energy pushing in more from the southeast into the Kent and Sussex coast generally on most but not all models. Some models have the eastern extent a lot further west between Brighton and the Isle of Wight, but those models are beginning to become outliers compared to most. This is where 3000+ J/KG of MUCAPE is possible for the development of these cells and the eastern extent is more likely to see frequent lightning given more depth of MUCAPE and more MUCAPE generally. The movement from northern France is northwest towards the central south to be hit first by the first part of the MCS but that appears to split or attempt to detach from what becomes the main MCS and weaken over the channel as it gets embedded into the warm front but may remain as thundery rain. That is not the main risk and occurs late in the evening. It is also not guaranteed to become much and may just be a feature of the warm front itself. Whereas the overnight risk comes next with MCS development further SSE, orientated less parallel and more head on towards the south coast moving northwestwards from northeastern France andor Belgium towards the central southern and southeastern coasts. Then it should move NW and further inland towards southern parts of the Midlands. With very lightning favourable saturation and significant MUCAPE, likely 1500-2000+ J/KG and cloud heights possibly up to 12km as it appears likely to hit central southern and southeastern coasts. This is where most risk comes from. The AROME and UKV are very strong on this occurring with pre-MCS cells forced with the change in wind direction forcing wind convergence in a line between Belgium and the SE on a few models and if this does occur, then very strong energy is available for pre-MCS cells to form and frequent lightning is very much a possibility along with severe hail especially as it eventually combines with the MCS. The most unstable buoyant layer has lifted indexes of around –9, which is extremely rare for UK risks and show the vigorousness of convection, hence the only reason why this isn’t a high risk is because of the worry over where the MCS hits. It would be in the SE but the Swiss models refuse to back down and they have been some of the best models, instead they focus on the central south with some convection extending east past Kent once it gets towards London way. A large inflow layer with significant energy and large buoyancy means that despite strong low-level shearing, hail is possible between 1 and 1.5 inches. This especially evident where cells feed momentum where they combine or if a Supercell does form. Rainfall totals could also be fairly upwards of 30mm in places and a lot of that falling in a short amount of time with a lot of moisture available. Therefore there exists risk for flash flooding. Overnight, initiation may occur north of the MCS as a forcing band develops perhaps due to gravity waves as the very tall potential of these storms gives that risk. Similarly, storms could trail behind to the south and east if the MCS is particularly strong enough. Some of which may last well into the morning because of the significant energy available. Eventually it should weaken wherever it is around 4am to 6am into thundery rain. This is where the potential weakens and any trailing cells are the main risk but only really on the UKV. There is still a lot of difference between the models but frequent lightning they almost all agree on. Along with some severe risk and generally quite significant storms. Along with the upscaling into an MCS at least of sorts on pretty much all of the models.

Thunders We were doing logarithms which are quite difficult but I caught up. Hopefully tonight is worth it as I've got a driving lesson at 6:45am tomorrow.

Thunderspotter Carrying along with your conversation. I did my notepad sketching of the event in my maths lesson .

LightningLover The risk area does seem to be shrinking a bit. However models can often downgrade just before an event for some reason.

LightningLover Still plenty of storms and anything over 1000 J/KG is plenty. Still maxing out past 2000 J/KG.

New and final convective Outlook should be coming soon. Ironing out the areas still. Models not really doing that well still.

Accas forming now. Remains very humid.

Cumulus showing the pure amount of humidity and moisture available. Very much got that feeling of before a storm here.