Eagle Eye

Tomorrow is very fascinating for low-level disturbances. High surface energy, lots of low-level shearing and helicity, especially coastal bound with the coastal fringe friction we've seen before but the surface friction in general could be very important as if a surface based and I mean very low storm could form, then that surface shearing which appears likely to be stretched streamwsie almost entirely with the amount of energy going to rotation, there's a small chance of a fairly significant tornado forming. That's worst case scenario though and I suspect would require an initial Supercell and an almost entirely clear initial formation for the storm to grow in.

Convective Outlook️ Showers forming along a shortwave trough behind an occluded front in the early afternoon are likely to cluster mainly in the southern Irish sea, the far SW of England, western Wales and southwestern Ireland. Some fairly strong buoyant air should help force up with lots of energy for these showers to come with sporadic lightning likely given the time of year and limited potential for the energy. The occluded front itself in the eastern parts through a lot of the day may bring a sporadic lightning strike or two. Strong surface energy and low-level winds in areas may aid some strong surface winds along with these showers as well. Small potential for a tornado in all of that. The deep-layer shear is strongest in the England and Wales parts of the slight risk, perhaps a small chance of a Supercell from that then. Hail is unlikely to be strong but the lift and cell mergers could force some kind of hail. That should clear NE wards with a few straggling showers before a lifting occluded front clears it in the evening. Especially showers may linger in Ireland.

Best day of the year for photography yesterday for me. A few birds flying by the moon as well if you zoom in.

Neilsouth Thats becuase it's below average right now. However going through March it was above average. March is a cold month, we had April-May temperatures quite a lot of the time.

Some bits off my camera from today. P1330123.mp4 P1330577.mp4 P1340001.mp4

Showery day, most interesting in a while.

This does appear to be a real video as there's a similar shot from further away of the dead man walking structure of one of the tornadoes with multiple large vortexes. Suggestive that it cold well have been violent.

Horrible horrible night for some people unfortunately. A couple absolutely violent tornadoes last night at the dark hours, the worst time.

Convective Outlook️ A couple lines of showers and thunderstorms could form in areas of cloud clearance on Friday. With 600+ J/KG of SBCAPE possible in areas aiding sporadic lightning. The two lines most likely appear to be forecasted roughly from the SW ENE-wards towards Essex and perhaps parts of Suffolk and another one likely weaker from south Wales towards north eastern parts of England. Both of these should move slightly SSE after forming in the afternoon and fade into the evening having formed along wind convergence zones forcing PV lobes in those 2 areas it appears, the southern mode having more energy to work with. Cloud coverage and saturation appears to be quite high in most areas limiting the lightning potential of showers and how many showers form. 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE in arwas may help with that but not much. Some small hail is possible because of the energy but most of it is held in the low-levels. Weak shearing limits that again.

Right. 10% hatched risk for tonight. Potentially strong tornadoes and large hail tonight.

Quite the most incredible radar and cone to multi vortex tornado. Lots of photos taken from Twitter from lots of different accounts:

Sleet haily rainy mix went horizontal at such a strength you could see the curtains falling even in the dark for about 20 seconds.

Another good day including some cool mammatus..

I was supposed to have a forecast out today but unfortunately the person that makes the maps couldn't make one today. Heres my discussion. A trough behind an occluded front should bring heavy showers to the south coast. A Theta-E lobe advecting northwards with the trough will allow for channel and south coast showers throughout the afternoon and evening behind a clearing occluded front to the north and east which may also bring the risk of the odd sporadic lightning strike earlier in the day to a lot of the country but the risk is quite low. This moisture convergence should form widespread clusters of showers, some reaching 7km tall or around 23,000 feet potentially. Given relatively high shearing and 100+ J/KG of 3CAPE in areas, lightning is likely but mostly should be sporadic because of the messy nature of the showers and given similar events, very little could come out of the lightning but if they linger into the evening and scatter, I've seen lightning increase then. Small chance of a Supercell and potentially a tornado mainly in the SE given the shearing but apart from that, there's really little support for either except low LCL's. Small hail may form but I wouldn't say is likely just given that the MLCAPE is mostly quite weak and mixed in at the warmer lower levels rather than where the temperature is below freezing. High saturation for a lot of the south also limits lightning but having looked at many soundings, the saturation varies a lot from place to place and some areas have very weak saturation with favourable lightning conditions just miles away from high saturation and unfavourable lightning conditions. It's a very messy setup which makes it a bit more difficult to forecast for specifics.

If you think we have it bad with Storm setup busts, look at the CINH on this sounding, any setup would be a bust . Not much buoyancy in that atmosphere either.

Sheesh

East Chicago Indiana tornado on Facebook

Tornado on Adam Lucio's stream it appears. Mean storm.

Reed dominating as usual, already up close and personal with the crazy storms of course. Started off very quickly. Got close to a funnel cloud that was just about touching the ground and as always with Reed it was a "Big time tornado" but definitely a fast start.

WeatherArc I've got a driving lesson at 6:45 so I may as well stay up for it ha ha. For early season this is a ridiculously high end potential but very very conditional.

Focus is now on tomorrow All modes risks. Conditionally severe tornadic potential I would say based off mode. High 3CAPE and low freezing with a classic C low-level hodograph is looking fairly favourable for severe hail I would say. Along with that, the low LCL's and fairly high DCAPE should convert a lot of that into downwards momentum for severe wind gusts as well. Don't think it's massive and only slightly severe favourable DCAPE but if linear mode can be upgraded to further, that could go hatched but I think we're too late for that strong of an upgrade. The low LCL's, high vorticity and low-level energy could contribute to tornadic development. This would especially be evident with isolated Supercells away from the clustering currently forecasted. An isolated Supercell taking up the environmental potential could cause a significant tornado but it's very conditional on that isolated Supercell forming in all the mess.

Another good convection day. petal_20240224_173728.mp4

The photos from last nights coastal skimmers/channel showers and storms.

Another day, another set of circumstances for me missing lighting. First off, first mini-distant storm, had to charge my camera. Second mini-distant storm set camera to 20 second exposures automatically for a burst, 2 seconds after the burst finishes, lightning strikes, a CG, that I saw on my camera as it was on but it had just stopped filming and if there would've been 1 more picture to the burst I would've got the lightning.