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Everything posted by Eagle Eye
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This almost definetely needs an upgrade to a moderate risk, it's only just the afternoon there really.
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So that tornado happened
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Colorado isn't actually a bad place to chase, it seems to rarely fail, Ijust that it doesn't typically seem to have high end events but if you want some good dusty pictures like old tornado pictures, go there.
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Eagle Eye replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Convective Outlook️ Falling mid-level GPH and surface pressure overnight with some cooling of the uppers with lower level temperatures staying more level should allow for the western edge of a Theta-E ejection to force a few showers overnight on Friday. Surface bands of vorticity should eject westward from northern France from a frontal system into a strong low-level lapse-rate area forcing potentially 100 J/KG Of 3CAPE but with weak deep-layer shear and high saturation the lightning risk is rather low and limited to the southwest and central southern coast. -
Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Eagle Eye replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Saturday with a positively tilted trough ejecting across the southern parts of the great plains with a full on dryline and with 65°F+ dewpoint. Very much a potentially classic setup here, but there's still a lot that could go wrong. That notch in Northern Kansas would probably be the safest bet, but you'd typically chase Oklahoma on a plains day given previous events, even one last year when the plains wasn't that active if I remember correctly. Northern Kansas Oklahoma
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Eagle Eye replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Eagle Eye replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Harry's House Must have missed that as I was in Ashford just down the road from that. Don't know how I missed it. -
Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Eagle Eye replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Absolutely incredible tornado footage
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Eagle Eye replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Convective Outlook️ North Sea showers should move south mostly across the East Anglia area and some into the SE. Risking thundery nature with them with 50+ J/KG of 3CAPE. Some hail appears possible and a small chance of a tornado or funnel cloud. However, the weak lift and weak energy limits lightning and severe potential. Mostly gone for slight based off what happened today. -
Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Eagle Eye replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Eagle Eye replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Eagle Eye replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Storm to my SW is beginning to form a pretty nice base that'll allow for some good photos but the sun is very close to it and means that my photos are over exposed, even if I try and just get the cloud in. -
Ben Sainsbury Yeah seems the spot. The only model that convect significantly the NAM 3KM has the best handle on the moisture advection at the moment. Central Jansas has a great environment but a large cap in place, Nebraska would be a more sure fire bet but less off an incredible wind field environment. Central Kansas. Central southern Nebraska. Also a reminder of the Oklahoman environment just in case. That wind field is potentially violent but thankfully there's a surface inversion and storm initiation looks to upscale too quickly once it gets going.
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Eagle Eye replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Convective Outlook ️ Scattered showers will develop across Eng bringing the risk of sporadic lightning within most intense cells which also may contain hail, but nothing severe worthy. -
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Eagle Eye replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Convective Outlook ️ An active cold front is developing just of the coast of W Scot which will track SE across the country bringing the risk of the odd lightning strikes, 60mph gusts & a brief possible tornado. T-storms are also expected for W Scot where a SLGHT has been issued. Perhaps a re-strengthening towards the Lincolnshire corridor but not enough confidence in how it'll evolve for that. -
Monday is very interesting with high end potential. Hooked low-levels with enough CAPE allowing significant risks for tornadic activity to occur. The very high buoyancy will help likely with breaking any cap in place and the lower the CAPE is as long as there's still enough for severe thunderstorm, the less likely of a messy setup there it. On the ejecting side of a trough with advancing shear and a lobe of shearing into the western parts of Oklahoma and into central Northern Kansas appears to be roughly where this convection should be held. That shearing is by far strong enough for tornadic risks to be there with this but we'll likely have to wait for the HRRR to get a more accurate view as the NAM can be quite poor at times. The soundings have a stretched and strong low-level wind field with mostly streamwise vorticity and a classically significant tornadic saturation profile. However, there is some lack of low-level CAPE and that'll likely have to be watched closely as a potential bust mode.
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Eagle Eye replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Ben Sainsbury Yeah, probably the best one I've captured because I've managed to find some new places in the village that I can quickly run to it and watch it envelop houses, may be better for lightning photography in the future. There was also thunder rumbling away inside the storm, not half bad for April. -
Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Eagle Eye replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
petal_20240408_221339.mp4 Another little timelapse. Excuse the high brightness at the start, it lowers quickly though. -
Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Eagle Eye replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
Eagle Eye replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Straight off my camera, quite often my camera likes low saturated photos so excuse if they look fairly black and white. Still an insane experience though. P1340707.mp4 P1350001.mp4 P1350426.mp4- 529 replies
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