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Weather vane

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Posts posted by Weather vane

    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     Summer8906 

    Couldn't agree more. Here in Ireland, 6 of the last 8 months have been above, or way above, average rainfall, with the other 2 months not much below average. Really wet 8 months overall, and we all need a significant dry period now. To my mind, the charts for the foreseeable continue to indicate a significant risk of yet more above average rain. When will it ever stop !!!!

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, danm said:

    With northerlies we’re almost always more reliant on troughs or disturbances cropping up or a battleground snow event, away from the most prone spots. Northerlies are rarely good for convective snow showers away from northern Scotland and some coastal areas. 

    Easterlies are much better in this regard. 

    However, it’s way too soon to write off snow chances next week. Things often pop up at short notice so no point writing off snow chances 

    100%. With the straight northerly set up, we know precip is much tougher to achieve. Once a northerly is on the cards,  expectations need to be tempered, no matter how enticing some day 7+ charts look. Combined with the demise of blocking, which has been clear for several days now, we can't be surprised at what looks like the likely outcome of 4-5 days of dry cold, and then back to Atlantic driven. I for one am very happy we have cold or even very cold temps next week. For me, that's a win as it's proper seasonal January weather.

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

    Awesome charts this morning with the depth of cold upgrading big time!! Ice days and widespread snow now becoming more and more likely!! Fair play to Met Office again! Widespread disruption likely by as early as Tuesday!!

    Agreed on the cold. Some very low night time temps being shown. This is the 2m GEM op for exactly one week from now.

    Can't agree, however, that widespread snow is now more and more likely. No evidence yet for that with a lot of dry charts over the last day or two. That can easily change, so here's hoping.

    GEMOPUK00_174_5.png

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, TillyS said:

    And indeed this morning’s ECM!

    I do wish people would keep it level. There’s a potent northerly showing on the 0Z GFS but we have been here with their northerlies a thousand times before and nearly every single one of them downgrades nearer the ‘event’.

    The ECM is much more measured, which is where we should be right now.

     

    p.s. the polar vortex sounds very exciting but it frequently goes meandering, without producing extreme results

    Here is the ECM mean at 240 hrs. Clearly shows trend towards a N/NW flow from a displaced euro high, which is consistent with the GFS/GEM output, although the timings and evolutions are somewhat different. Surely the 'measured' approach is to consider multiple models in this case and not just get fixed on one (ECM). Also, ECM did not get the last breakdown correct....

    ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png

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    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, ScottSnow said:

    Lots of bickering in here this morning. Nothing is going to be nailed synoptically yet.

    In my view all we should be looking for is signs of a pattern change and to me all the models are showing that it will likely get colder soon. To what extent and how they differ of course, but that is to be expected at this stage.

    Yes things can go pear shaped but I think the past few days have been a step in the right direction and that’s all we can ask for at the moment.

     

    Completely agree. We have now clearly entered a synoptic pattern change scenario compared to what most models were showing a week ago (GFS excepted). Exciting to see the potential now on offer.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

    Well just typical for the Gfs 06z, it’s now undoing the buttons as regards the phantom cold spell in true Gfs Style.😂

    Yes, but let's be fair here. A week ago, ECM and others had us almost in Euro slug territory, or at least a very flat jet. The GFS was correct in seeing a pressure build in Greenland, which will probably lead to a significant pattern change. At least on this occasion, we can be happy that the GFS was 'mostly' right - otherwise, if we judge the model as always inferior, then why bother looking at it at all !

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    • Insightful 2

    Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Great model watching this past week. If the Greenland block materialises, even if just quite briefly, it looks to bring a major pattern change. Ultimately, if we get a block of any sort, it has to go down as a win for GFS, which has been very consistent about this for the last 4-5 days or longer. Definitely one in the loss column for ECM. Of course, still not certain the block will materialise...

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion 11/12/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

    Is this the sort of view you would prefer to see?

    IT shows our fledgling block,but currently much more important blocking high in North America which is preventing any Atlantic 'leaks'.

    I think that this chart is the one to watch early next week to see if it starts to let the LP's through. 

    image.thumb.png.10469b0ab3c71b7e294fd741014dc218.png

    What polar Vortex?

    MIA

    Yes  exactly. Beautiful chart. Thanks !

    Model output discussion 11/12/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

    Met Eireann longer ranger has just updated and they are going with the ECM through next week. If they are talking about Easterlies and night frosts in Ireland, it will be colder further East..

    image.thumb.png.951bca226e54d316571e385e9faaf7b9.png

     

    Link

    OG-icon.jpg

    6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn National Forecast - Met Éireann - The Irish Meteorological Service

    WWW.MET.IE
    Met Éireann, the Irish National Meteorological Service, is the leading provider of weather information and related services for Ireland.

     

    I usually find the Met Eireann longer range forecast text super frustrating,  as it rarely gives any in depth info about the wider NH weather patterns influencing our weather. I guess it's good they are picking up on the potential easterly, but this forum is way ahead of them on that front. 

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