Weather vane

Summer8906 Couldn't agree more. Here in Ireland, 6 of the last 8 months have been above, or way above, average rainfall, with the other 2 months not much below average. Really wet 8 months overall, and we all need a significant dry period now. To my mind, the charts for the foreseeable continue to indicate a significant risk of yet more above average rain. When will it ever stop !!!!

Jordan S hope you get some snow. Nice fall today across a fair bit of Ireland. Here in Dublin quite a bit !!

Yes.

100%. With the straight northerly set up, we know precip is much tougher to achieve. Once a northerly is on the cards, expectations need to be tempered, no matter how enticing some day 7+ charts look. Combined with the demise of blocking, which has been clear for several days now, we can't be surprised at what looks like the likely outcome of 4-5 days of dry cold, and then back to Atlantic driven. I for one am very happy we have cold or even very cold temps next week. For me, that's a win as it's proper seasonal January weather.

Agreed on the cold. Some very low night time temps being shown. This is the 2m GEM op for exactly one week from now. Can't agree, however, that widespread snow is now more and more likely. No evidence yet for that with a lot of dry charts over the last day or two. That can easily change, so here's hoping.

Being shamelessly IMBY''ish, this new feature on the ECM 12z could be good for Ireland. T850s decent for snow. Prob all will change but nice to see.

Huge differences in how the GFS 00z vs 06z is handling the mid Atlantic low on the 26th...

Here is the ECM mean at 240 hrs. Clearly shows trend towards a N/NW flow from a displaced euro high, which is consistent with the GFS/GEM output, although the timings and evolutions are somewhat different. Surely the 'measured' approach is to consider multiple models in this case and not just get fixed on one (ECM). Also, ECM did not get the last breakdown correct....

sorry tsnwk; accidentally replied to the wrong post....

Except that the GFS has been fairly consistent for several days now on something from the north or NW from the 20th / 21st.

Completely agree. We have now clearly entered a synoptic pattern change scenario compared to what most models were showing a week ago (GFS excepted). Exciting to see the potential now on offer.

Completely agree. We have now clearly entered a synoptic pattern change scenario compared to what most models were showing a week ago (GFS excepted). Exciting to see the potential now on offer.

Yes, but let's be fair here. A week ago, ECM and others had us almost in Euro slug territory, or at least a very flat jet. The GFS was correct in seeing a pressure build in Greenland, which will probably lead to a significant pattern change. At least on this occasion, we can be happy that the GFS was 'mostly' right - otherwise, if we judge the model as always inferior, then why bother looking at it at all !

Great model watching this past week. If the Greenland block materialises, even if just quite briefly, it looks to bring a major pattern change. Ultimately, if we get a block of any sort, it has to go down as a win for GFS, which has been very consistent about this for the last 4-5 days or longer. Definitely one in the loss column for ECM. Of course, still not certain the block will materialise...

Mostly a lurker, but reading all the great posts this winter. For the less knowledgeable, the following link has a very nice accessible description of SSWs, the polar vortex, etc. What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW)? WEPOWDER.COM The concept of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) has seen increasing attention in recent years. For meteorologists, it is always a...

I'm intrigued why that low pressure over ne Canada barely moves for 7 days. With the south westerlies upcoming, why such a stall?

CFS... this is your chance for redemption.... come on...

That is one big temp difference between Icon and gfs at just 102hrs. Wild uncertainty reigning...

I have been wondering why that low off US NE barely moves for 4 days I can't really see any block to its westward progression, running along with the jet. Is it just spinning there because of the messed up PV?

Yes exactly. Beautiful chart. Thanks !

I usually find the Met Eireann longer range forecast text super frustrating, as it rarely gives any in depth info about the wider NH weather patterns influencing our weather. I guess it's good they are picking up on the potential easterly, but this forum is way ahead of them on that front.

Laughing my head off on my train commute home. Passengers wondering whats going on. If only they knew...

I mean FI. Too much of Abu Dhabi at the weekend...

Loving the GEM and emerging ECM looking good so far. Nicec Pacific and siberian squeeze at 240hr GEM which should help cold here. Still F1 though.