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Weather vane

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  1. Weather vane
    That HP at 126 hr is in an awful hurry. Moves nearly 1500 miles in 36hrs !!!
  2. Weather vane
    As others have said, settled weather is now forecast from migrating Atlantic high, rather than the previously forecasted EU high. In more reliable timeframe of 1 week, too, so looking good for those that love cool, dry and sunny autumnal weather (like me)..
  3. Weather vane
    Thanks Jules, very informative to a novice here.
  4. Weather vane
    Here"s the 192hr charts (apart ftom Icon which is 180hr). There is effort to build in hp in some, but form horse would be less settled than more settled IMO. (at least in Ireland where I'm based).
  5. Weather vane
    Below are the 144hr for Gem, gfs, ecm, icon, ukmo. Cant see how we can get from these to a settled spell for beginning Nov. Atlantic too active and no blocking that could help.
  6. Weather vane
    All for optimism, but 8-9 days out is a lot this time of year, esp with a big low possibly barrelling in. I know people diss GFS but I thought Icon has more street cred. Though, like you, I'd love forcthe ECM forecast to come good.
  7. Weather vane
    Not sure why there is such optimism for the ECMs warm end of month, which is still 9-10 days away. All models indicating a possobly nasty low in a weeks time, which could essily scupper a subsequent settled spell. GFS, Icon indicate it stays unsettled and cold for months end.
  8. Weather vane
    Tend to agree. Whilst so.e green shoots of settled weather are appearing, the Atlantic dominance has been very hard to shift for a lot of this summer. Ground is almost fully saturated here, across the entire island of Ireland. Been a long time since I"ve seen it this bad at end August.
  9. Weather vane
    I'm quite new to the forum and wondering why we often see low pressure systems breaking off the tip of greenland and heading south east as in the 126hr and 159hr GFS charts below. This seems to have happened lots this summer. Why dont those lows not tend to stay in the higher latitudes from where they arose and ride over the top of any higher pressure.
  10. Weather vane
    First time poster. Been following this amazing blog for a few years now. Many posters comment on the tendency of GFS to be over progressive. I presume there is empirical evidence for this, given the huge amount of available data to weather modellers. Would love to know where to find this data. Does anyone know?
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