Weather vane

From my novice point of view, I am intrigued about how the 850 temps translate to what is going on at the surface. In the run up to this cold spell, -10/-12 uppers were frequently mentioned as putting us well clear of any marginal issues for (lying) snow. However, these uppers which are occurring right now, are definitely marginal for lying snow, with surface temps hovering around +1/+2 in many places. Makes me wonder what sort of uppers we need to be looking at in the longer term forecasts?

Ha, ha, I read those nearly every day; the mythical 'Exeter' now uncloaked (for me !)

Apologies for the ignorance. but I often see reference to Exeter. Is that where the met office is based? And if so, where can you get the Exeter 'comments' ?

Valid point. In fairness to the GFS, it was very early to signaling this easterly, so must get points for that. Sure, it has a habit of being over progressive on the atlantic lows, but even if that's the case at this moment, there is still the very real threat of the atlantic cutting off the cold air for most from days 8-9. But let's not worry about that yet, and enjoy what's coming up !

I can see some downbeat sentiment based on 850 temps, but I for one am really excited by what's coming up. There has been excellent cross model consistency the last few days for upcoming cold from the NE, so I think we're very close to nailing that part of the equation. Unlike the last cold spell, we have real opportunity for significant snow, or even blizzard conditions, given the LPs that look likely to be hanging around. Just need the temp to play ball. It also look to me that the cold wont disappear quickly (hope I haven't jinxed it). Haven't been this excited about the winter models for a long time (well, since 2018 anyhow).

You're prob right Scott. I made my UK heights comment based on looking through all the gfs members from 06:00, but looking at previous two runs, there isn't really consistent support for any significant height rises.

Agree, things looking a little flatter, and a UK high could easily be the result 10 days out (although majority of Gfs members still going with lower heights from NW). But at least we are now definitely entering a much colder set up, and it will definitely feel like winter, at least by our standards at the eastern edge of the Atlantic. As rare as the current set up is, IMO its even rarer to get significant widespread snow events. I tell myself this constantly to keep my sanity with the hunt for exceptional cold !!

Thanks Mike; where do you get those verification stats graphs?

Although I am new to posting here, I have been following this amazing forum for quite a few years now. One thing that has constantly piqued my interest is that when it comes to major negative comments about how a particular model is performing, it seems like >90% of these comments are directed at the GFS (very negative comments of ECM charts seem way less frequent), and almost always when the chart doesn't show what is being hoped for. I have to admit I find this complete dismissal bias somewhat surprising since GFS charts are posted all the time, and used as evidence to support an interpretation. I have no vested interest whatsoever in any model; just trying to find my feet with regards to how they all compare, which ones perform better in certain scenarios, but less well in other scenarios. In the critical 7-10 day forecasting timescale that so many of us focus on, how often is the GFS model completely wrong or very inconsistent on a day-to-day basis, and how does this compare with ECM - is it that much better ? I imagine this is not easy to define empirically, though there must be studies addressing it.? Not trying to upset the apple cart here, just trying to wade my way through learning about models and chart interpretation.

This article published in Nature has lots of info on climate warming and the MJO. Madden–Julian_oscillation_chan.pdf

Some good cross model agreement for seasonal cool weather around xmas day. Looking at Nao forecasts for longer term cold hints, there is support for soon heading into negative territory (we"ve been near neutral for a while now). However, forecasts for the linked MJO is to stay stubbornly in phase 5, and not enter stages 6-8 (favours neg Nao).

Really interesting article from Samuel Hayes, on Netweather, providing explanations for our current situation, and most importantly, giving us hope for how close we could be to upcoming cold . Arctic Amplification and Winter Weather - What's the Connection? WWW.NETWEATHER.TV Samuel Hayes explores how Arctic Amplification impacts the UK's winter weather, and how it links into the stratosphere, sea ice, snow cover and more.

Im a bit confused about what a background signal is? For example, is it not the case that what happens at the pole directly affects things here? If a strong polar high develops and migrates south somewhat, that can have a major effect on disrupting established patterns. Maybe I'm picking this up wrong ??

Models very consistent out to 168h, with no sign of any proper cold here. It's getting close to saying your prayers time if you want Santa to deliver the goods, though, as always, FI teases us along...Maybe a split vortex will kick things our way.

Regarding earlier excitement about the 6am GFS 384hr chart, I agree fully with J Holmes and others that nearly always you will be in for disappointment, especially it seems in winter. Looking 7-10 days ahead is still plenty of fun, at least for me. Speaking of which the below 7-10 day charts show how incredibly resilient the western russia/siberian high is. Need this to shift to get cold from the east.

Really appreciate that. Thanks.

How do you download the animated runs on Meteociel? I can't see how to do this. Thanks.

You're right, though still a horror show for the snow coldies...

Daffodils by late Dec if these GFS charts verify (little chance prob).

Now, that is a BLOCK to behold on Icon at 180hr. No cold build to our east unfotunately..

Decent day7/8 position for north atlantic blocking across models. Lets hope we see this continue to develop over next few days....

You could well be right. However, as alluded to by other posters, there are multiple solutions to getting cold weather here even in the face of what seems an unfavourable circumstance. Even the heavily sought after greenland blocks, Scandi highs, and SSWs are no guarantee of cold, though of course they greatly increase our chances.

Building Scandi high route to cold weather not playing ball, as charts show it slowing shifting East. Could be replaced by another one building from north central Europe. Lets hope...

I might just print this one out and stick it up on the wall, it's so beautiful. Shane it's deep FI territory.