Howie
-
Posts
862 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Howie
-
-
Pressure starts to build over iberia and the low stalls to the west, typical. West based -nao
-
Gfs drops that low a bit too far west i think, obviously it will change closer to the time
-
Looks like the low that's about to dive from Greenland has much colder air within it as well
-
3
-
-
Is it me or is the Russian high starting to re-orientate like it's about to retrogress at the end of the ECM run?
-
The trough just refuses to budge even a little bit east
-
That low definitely needs to become more stretched out and less round. It's very possible so let's hope
-
All the cold air is being bottled up over Siberia/east Asia. I wonder what it Will take to move it around
-
8 minutes ago, bumpydogz said:
50% of them maybe?
4 minutes ago, Jason M said:Yes. Actually a good number of easterlies in amongst them from day 9 onwards. Not many 'beasterlies' but certainly a good few that would be cold enough.
-6 at 850 level in a continental airmass is a different story completely. Can achieve an ice day with that (especially in late Dec early Jan), whereas in a day 2 PM airmass 5-6c is often achievable.
Looking good
-
6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
That's an impressive gefs 06z mean.
I'll say no more
A good portion of the ensembles below the mean
-
2
-
-
There is cold air, it's just that it's all been pushed away from us and into Asia/North America. I noticed that a few weeks ago. I think with time we'll draw in more cold air
-
1
-
-
Hopefully the trough is less rounded and is able to sink further south closer to the time, great run so far though
-
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:
The ECM 12z is an improvement I don’t think destined to topple fast higher pressure over eastern Canada is what you want to see, helps have more of a pull of retrogression assuming day 10 happened I would expect several days down the line for a northerly attempt. Repeating patterns....
Also good to see low pressure in the mediterranean
-
Just now, nick sussex said:
It’s important to build sufficient heights into Greenland so we do need the amplification but timing could be crucial .
So more about when that happens . The key feature is that shortwave you see over the eastern seaboard .
That pivots, to its right warmer air pushes north into west Greenland which promotes heights building by WAA.
As the jet amplifies upstream heading north , downstream the jet goes south taking that low near Greenland s/se.
The coldest air will be on the nw and west flank of the low so that needs to get to the se of the UK and not just fill over the country .
Fingers crossed! The mean is much further east with the low so hopefully the operational run was an outlier
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:
Ironically the UKMO which wasn’t good this morning but which has improved this evening might provide a better evolution post day 6 .
The GFS is too amplified at the wrong time , the UKMO is flatter but as that shortwave in the eastern USA amplifies the drop down point for the low near Greenland should be further to the east .
Interesting! So hopefully a halfway house would be decent?
-
1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:
As per 2 1/2 weeks ago...be nice for once to actually get into a cold air mass rather than just have displaced low pressure over us.
Very very frustrating indeed. I think the problem is that there's a ridge in South Eastern Europe which forces the low to the west instead of south east. Hopefully that ridge is downplayed in later runs
-
Bit frustrating to see the low just stall over us and fill..... I hope that changes closer to the time
-
1
-
-
2 minutes ago, Nick F said:
12z GFS slower getting the centre of the upper vortex / surface low SE, don't like the way it loiters NW of Scotland. Not worried about this given so far out, but wish that vortex would god damn move southeast!
I agree, I hope it shifts more south east as we get closer
-
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:
240 will be a snorter
The high over Svalbard
-
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:
The attention up to T144 is not on what is modelled for the UK, it is upstream re the development of the Atlantic ridge, at T168, we can start thinking about impacts on the UK:
Looks amplified, result = northerly.
Thank you! I'm still very new to this
-
3
-
-
Just now, Daniel* said:
Not looking good for mild lovers?
I definitely misinterpreted the chart lol
-
Not looking good on the ECM
-
2 minutes ago, snowspotter said:
With all due respect the vortex was over there in December 1962 around this time so I wouldn’t get too upset . (Responding to Howie)
Noted!
-
1
-
-
The pv is reforming over Greenland, not good
-
Are those euro heights I'm seeing on the icon?
Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I really hope the west based -nao signal diminishes