Valleyboy

Might be ok, that low would correct south, so would end up a snow event for some.

This is the point I am making. A direct northerly will be modified temps wise. We need the shorted sea crossing, so a polar continental feed is much better, as was December 2010 and December 1981. Those months were mainly continental feed, which is what I am hoping any northerly will end up turning into.

There’s nothing to ramp if it is a northerly, as it’ll be a damp squib. We need to look east for real wintry weather. Hopefully, any northerly will back north east, east.

The problem is, it won’t be substantially colder from the north. Too much sea to cross which will modify temperatures. We really need cold pools developing from the east. 09/10 was mostly continental cold, not northerlies.

You really don’t get northerly beasts! It just doesn’t happen.

No northerlies please, they only look good on paper. On the ground, very little to excite us, especially in the south. I’ll put up with northerlies, providing they eventually back northeast / east.

Yes, but too much over analysis on every single run is tiresome. Many in this forum will know that 10 days out isn’t worth worrying about, but memories are short. Best to look at the overall trend and pattern being shown, which in the current case is very good for coldies.

Depends on the wind direction really. Winds north of east will bring plenty of snow showers across the country. The North Sea will be a big snow making machine this winter.

No. That would be a cold south easterly flow. No mild temperatures there.

Anyone worried about a mild autumn, should look at Autumn 1978.

Think you’ve missed a fair few other winters with long cold spells, both ends of 2010 were extended cold spells and many early 80’s winters had long snowy spells, and not forgetting 1978/79.

Snow only on high ground in the north. There’s just too much moderation with this set up.

The thing is, northerlies are never brutal. It’s a sign of desperation when people wish for northerlies, as they only look good on paper, they never deliver to the bulk of the country.

The first half of winter 1947 was mild, 14c was widely recorded that January.

Really? temps dropping slightly, ok not a cold spell but something colder could evolve from that set up.