noname_weather

Thanks for hosting the competition!! @Roger J Smith. Congratulations to the winners. I went too far ahead with the cold wave, but hey I promised some snow and I guess that -6C 850 hPa 980mb on the 28th probably delivered some for higher ground. Probably broke the record for the biggest downfall. From 1st to being out of the top 10 :P. Risk it for busquit. I guess that I will starve for now.

4c and 88mm

November will unleash the beast. The arctic chains of ice will finally be broken. My army will flow from the north and the east. From the rising of the sun my army will be seen. The southern and western armies will be trembled and shaken. Their power will be completely shattered. My glorious chilly winds will pierce every single molecule of warm air trying to reach the UK . I will come to victory in this competition walking upon a thick blanket of clear white snow. 5.5 C and 80mm.

10.4C and 117mm

15C and 67mm.

15.7C and 86mm

16.5 and 82 mm

15.8C and 58mm

10.7C and 84mm. April went truly terrible for me. Hard to believe we can obtain a 35 years cold month record.

8.2C and 84 mm I agree with the posts above. Flip-flip between one extreme to another sure making things harder to predict.

Gfs 18Z with 1105 Mb over Greenland. 00Z, 06Z, 12Z still with very impressive values. However, 1105 Mb is like the craziest record I have seen (but the run with -23 850hPa on April posted here at the last page :P) Also support from other models.

I will go for 7.8C and 52.8 mm

3.7 C and 90mm, thanks .

3c and 68mm. The good thing is that I am afraid I will be wrong and January will end up cooler than 3c, which is a win anyway.

Pretty happy from the current maps. Also we have the SSW incoming which can turn things wild. Anyway I can't resist but post this Chinese cold wave: The -15 (maybe even lower) 850 hPa temp reaching as south as Shanghai! which is around 31-32nd north latitude. Thats as south as middle of Morocco. It is so south that the models showing Europe barely reach this latitude line.

New to the forum, would like to join: 5.2c 84mm thanks!

150 mm overnight here in Tel Aviv Israel, some places 200mm+ within 16 hours window~.

As we had into winter things only get more abnormal. Tried to match the 500mb Geopotential height anomaly of Septembers and Octobers to 2020. Got double match for 2003 and 2012. I squeezed October 2012+1952 because they seem to be more far away from Oct 2020. Could have tried to match November 2020, since it is pretty much a done deal with the persistent high pressure and mild conditions.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif Can't take CFS enso forecast seriously. -3 (-0.9 colder than 1974) on 3 ensembles? This is beyond ridiculous. Anyway, I checked what was the average and maximum temperature drop from JAS value to the pick each year: None of the La ninas went below 0.9 degrees temperature, Thus three months of strong La nina seems to be extremely unlikely for our current event. The overall average drop is -0.541. The average drop when JAS was within the range of -0.4 till -0.8: -0.427.