STRiZZY
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Posts posted by STRiZZY
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99L is clearly extratropical
1. Front
2. Broad wide field
3. Little to no convection near the centerI am starting to believe that this doesn't have more then a 20% of being named.
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12z Euro has some truly cold temperatures for Central Europe at D10.
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GFS 00z blows up a new sub tropical /tropical system. It exits off the eastern seaboard then blows up.
Due to its close proximity to 99L, it could be shearing it causing it to weaken. Previously 99L had been steering pieces of energy off of the eastern seaboard of the US underneath it and into Europe. It still does this however this time one of the pieces develops rapidly.
The GFS is notorious for over intensifying systems so we’ll see if it continues to show this new system (also if the Euro picks up on it) or it drops it come 06z.
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Latest on 99L (Azores low).
As I stated earlier, the GFS is normally biased towards the east with tropical systems (loves to plow right through ridges). That’s not always the case though. This is interesting as it’s the most western track of the lot (AVNI).
TVCN is one to watch because when the NHC makes predictions on the track of systems, it’s almost always very similar to the TVCN.
As of now it’s obviously splitting the difference between the Euro/GFS (it’s a blended model after all).
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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:One other quick thing to watch, the NHC keep a track on sub/tropical system that have what is known as a invest marker (basically a tag to allow them to run the hurricane models on, etc). This updates every 6hrs based on the best data they have.
At the moment they place 99l at 1000mbs. The ECM/GFS both are a little too strong at this stage. Interestingly the ECM is also a little too far east at this stage as well, the GFS looks better in terms of the placements right now.
Probably will not mean much in the long run, but it is something to keep an eye on as it will no doubt give more confidence to either camp should it evolve the way that particular model believes.
As an American who religiously follows tropical weather with a lot of experience. The GFS loves to blow up every storm into a strong hurricane where the Euro under does this (intensity wise). The GFS also has an “east” bias historically speaking. The Euro used to be fantastic but as of late has not done so well. The UKMO is decent on its tracking (west bias) but pretty bad at intensity.
The last few hurricane seasons have been a headache when it comes to model guidance.
TVCN (blended model) would be the one to follow as it’s the most accurate. It’s what the NHC uses for its forecasting.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display
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1 minute ago, SLEETY said:
Because they hardly ever verify as you should know I would have thought anyway, seen countless gfs and ecm charts at day 8 onwards showing a winter wonderland but they never actually make it into reality 99 % of the time, waste of time to be honest that they go out so far.
Only a waste of time if you focus on details 8 days onwards.
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A lot of grinches in this thread right now . Tons of positivity in the models over the last 12 hours. I think a few people are focusing on their backyard a bit too much.
Synoptics are what’s important as of now, not details like show charts being lackluster at 200hrs. Granted it could all vanish at any given moment but I think there’s plenty of data supporting posters that are excited about the possibilities heading into a Christmas/NYE.
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The cold trend continues with the 0z
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Gfs 06z looked very good for Central Europe as well.
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3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:
Is it just me or does the ICON 12z and GFS12z out to 138hrs look slightly different?
A bit cooler in Central Europe at 138hrs on the 12z vs the 6z.
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9 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:
We all know the "winter potential" wont happen. Have you seen the JMA? Looking like a winter heatwave despite all the Northern blocking and negative NAO. Murphys law really wants to play here.
The JMA? Lol come on now!
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1 minute ago, syed2878 said:
I would say two weeks is quite reliable when Atlantic is forecasting for our little island as this is our default button sadly unless the Gulf stream changes suddenly after all the promise charts over the last week or so this does not look too inviting what we are watching now personally I think it is January we will see signs of cold on the NWP. as Cold-Eeze in the UK I think we just going to have to take it on the chin this time round just like last few winters.
Yeah I have to disagree. No model has a verification rate at 14days that could be seen as reliable. However I do concede that the likely hood of a cold Christmas is not looking great.
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8 minutes ago, Valleyboy said:
I would forget pinning hopes on any snow this Christmas. The Atlantic looks to take hold for the foreseeable.
I hear you, but there are still 14 days until Christmas and two weeks out is certainly not a reliable time period for any model. Granted it does not look great for snow/cold lovers for the next week but there is still time for a turn around for the week after.
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28 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:
After looking at the GFS and its members for the first full day of Christmas Day runs these are the totals I got for each option
Temps 9/12 Precip 9/12
V Mild 0 V Dry 1
Mild 13 Dry 36
Average 45 Average 59
Cold 54 Wet 32
V Cold 16 V Wet 0
LEADER COLD LEADER AVERAGEOverall looking more likely to be colder than milder and there were several very cold options in there and a couple of beast from the east scenarios too. Precipitation overall came out easily average yesterday
Time to see how today's runs are doing so far in terms of colder options for Christmas Day. I have both the 00z and 06z options mixed together in this update and have picked out the coldest options showing in both or the ones that have potential to deliver cold and/or snow too. As always the least cold first and coldest last
GFS 06z Member 21
A rather feeble attempt at an easterly here but at least colder uppers are waiting over the continent but with the positioning of the high pressure it could take a while for them to arrive. More cold with overnight frosts here
GFS 00z Member 20
This is looking like a slidergate battleground situation with a snow threat on the NE side of the low pressure where the mild air clashes with the colder air further N and E
GFS 06z Member 15
A seasonable Christmas Day here with slack winds generally and quite chilly uppers. Frost and fog the most likely elements at play on the surface
GFS 06z Member 28
An area of low pressure here positioned within quite cold uppers. Could be a marginal snow event if things fall right here, especially in the NW closest to the low pressure itself
GFS 00z Member 12
A more significant battleground situation here of 2 types. The first is similar to the other one with mild vs cold clashing over the UK giving a snow event for some but the other main battle here is between that large low pressure area and that huge block over Greenland at 1070mb too. All coldies would want Greenland block to win out and all mildies would want that low to win.
GFS 06z Member 16
Another anticyclonic option but the stronger winds will mean less risk of fog and frost but very likely a cold and cloudy flow here making for a raw feeling Christmas Day
GFS 00z Member 9
A cold and wet Christmas on the cards here for most but the lucky few in the NE of the UK may see a snow event as that small low passes through before no doubt the next low arrives and brings milder air with it for Boxing Day
GFS 00z Member 19
A bit more of a mini battleground situation here between a small low pressure and a small high pressure. Snow is a possibility through the spine of the UK with the west milder and dry, the east colder and dry too
GFS 06z Control Run
This looks like the beginnings of a cold easterly flow but nothing more than -5 uppers in the flow for now. Cold, frosty and maybe a snow shower risk for the SE here
GFS 06z Member 7
Not typical to feature a gentle NW flow but this one is quite chilly for a NW wind and has the potential to deliver some snow to the NW, especially over high ground
GFS 06z Member 4
A colder version of the last option with a bigger snow shower risk in the N. As with this and the last option the S and E staying dry.
GFS 06z Member 3
Anticyclonic option which will deliver cold and frosty weather for Christmas itself but also a bit of a battleground too which all depends on where the high goes to next. Moves north and very cold air is waiting to move across to the UK. South and a very mild airmass is waiting out in the Atlantic to ruin the late December period.
GFS 06z Member 14
A nice option here with that small low delivering what will very likely be increasingly wintry showers to the E as colder air moves in for Christmas Day. Even colder air is waiting in the flow further to the NE and could easily move in as long as the pattern holds.
GFS 06z Member 30
A fairly cold northerly here with a snow shower risk, mostly for the N and E. Not much colder uppers either until you get right into the Arctic and Russia so a long wait for anything even colder here
GFS 00z Member 27
A colder version of the previous marginal low pressure situation and with the low pressure closer than the other option then this could be a more certain bet for snow on Christmas Day
GFS 00z Member 2
A mainly dry and cold option unless you are close to that low where snow showers are likely in the SE and on exposed E coastal regions in England in particular.
GFS 00z Member 14
Finally onto the best options of all. In 3rd coldest we have GFS 00z Member 14. This one is a slack version of a beast from the east with the -10 isotherm just getting into the UK. Very cold here with snow showers mostly in the east. More likely very cold and dry in the S and W with more of a continental influence.
GFS 06z Member 13
An even colder version of the above. Yet again a slack flow, even more so than the previous one. This one may have a snow risk near the east coast but inland areas likely to see ice days and very low minimums at night. The -15 isotherm isn't far away either and could easily move in.
GFS 00z Member 5
Finally the option I think is the best overall for the cold and the direct flow from the east too. This looks like a repeat of 2018 with the uppers and the direction and strength of the wind. The -15 isotherm is just getting into the UK and is likely to push even further into the UK. Frequent and heavy snow showers will be the order of the day and these are likely to get some way inland on this flow too.
Summary
A total of 19 cold or potentially cold options there between both the 00z and 06z GFS of a possible 64 options. Not that bad but a lower fraction overall compared with yesterday's runs but I will have to see what the 12z and 18z bring in terms of cold.
EC ENS z500 latest charts vs same time last year
09/12/2020 12z vs 09/12/2019 12z
10/12/2020 00z vs 10/12/2019 00z
Summary
I have yet again shown the ENS charts. This is mainly to show that this year we appear to be headed for northern blocking around Christmas. When comparing this year to what the identical runs were showing last year on the same dates there is a big difference. Last year was all about the wet weather and zonality. This year looks much different and gives me more hope of a cold or maybe even white Christmas this year
What a post. Thank you for that effort as it must have taken some time to put together.
What numbers did yo use to differentiate between mild and very mild/ cold very cold?
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2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:
Bitter!
Can we lock this in please?
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10 minutes ago, GeordieX9v said:
Is there a happy ending coming to the GFS?
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1 minute ago, MATT
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Temps have been below average for a while and quite cold at times.. Average temps do not float my boat one bit. I admire what the strat guys are saying but the 46 at this moment of time is not seeing it. The Long range anomalies are also not seeing it... That's not to say its gonna nail this pattern, but I'm beginning to think a major strat event is gonna be needed to throw the cat amongst the pigeons.. So to speak.
I think he meant the above avg temps of the previous few seasons.
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4 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:
Whenever you need cheering up there’s always a CFS run there ready to do the job.
Is the pub run ready to do the job again?
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3 minutes ago, STRiZZY said:
That is awesome. I always wondered if Europe, or other places in the world for that matter, received what is known in the US as "Lake Effect Snow". You wouldn't happen to know where I can find a radar loop of that event from Jan 19' do you?
I remember when I lived in the mountains of West Virginia, USA (around 200mi from lake Erie). Our forecast one night was for light snow (from Erie vis lake effect) with little to no snow accumulation.
Well we got extremely lucky and got some enhancement from the terrain and ended up with 8 inches that night. Still to this day the most unexpected snowfall I have ever witnessed.
Where I am at in Poland is about 125ish km from the Baltic. I would assume under the right conditions Sea Effect Snow would be possible. In fact at 300hr on the 18z GFS run last night there appeared to be some streamers coming in off the Baltic right over my location. You can also also see the orographic lift in southern Poland with a strong NNE wind.
Actually a little latter on in the run is probably an even better example .
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39 minutes ago, jules216 said:
Proximity to mountains can be good as it enhances precipitation rate ideally under north westerly which is rich in moisture of North sea. Those showers can easily persist in to central Europe and can be enhance by mountains/hills close by. Recent example being 15th January 2019 in North west of Slovakia easily could rival those Alpine pictures or NE USA streamers, with 1.5m can fall in few days and temperatures can fall under -30C
That is awesome. I always wondered if Europe, or other places in the world for that matter, received what is known in the US as "Lake Effect Snow". You wouldn't happen to know where I can find a radar loop of that event from Jan 19' do you?
I remember when I lived in the mountains of West Virginia, USA (around 200mi from lake Erie). Our forecast one night was for light snow (from Erie vis lake effect) with little to no snow accumulation.
Well we got extremely lucky and got some enhancement from the terrain and ended up with 8 inches that night. Still to this day the most unexpected snowfall I have ever witnessed.
Where I am at in Poland is about 125ish km from the Baltic. I would assume under the right conditions Sea Effect Snow would be possible. In fact at 300hr on the 18z GFS run last night there appeared to be some streamers coming in off the Baltic right over my location. You can also also see the orographic lift in southern Poland with a strong NNE wind.
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1 minute ago, ITSY said:
Obvious cherry picking and not even close to the mean (which is far, far less amplified) but P18 has the right idea!
18z, P18.. Something about that number huh?
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Just now, Updated_Weather said:
Did we really think GFS was going to give us the same output as 18z and 00z, its never that straight forward or nice xD
Here's to the pub run later tonight !
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2 minutes ago, dragan said:
06z is indicating nothing but average (ish) conditions for the entire duration really.
Don’t even think we scrape -5 850’s at all! Talk about boring
I was expecting this to happen given the 06z's track record as of late.
Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Looks to be stuck in no-mans-land as far as upper-level steering is concerned (<20kt "hole").
18z ICON