STRiZZY

Looks to be stuck in no-mans-land as far as upper-level steering is concerned (<20kt "hole"). 18z ICON

99L is clearly extratropical 1. Front 2. Broad wide field 3. Little to no convection near the center I am starting to believe that this doesn't have more then a 20% of being named.

12z Euro has some truly cold temperatures for Central Europe at D10.

TVCN very similar to the GFS. If you’re a fan of the GFS’s solution for 99L then it’s encouraging to see them so close.

GFS 00z blows up a new sub tropical /tropical system. It exits off the eastern seaboard then blows up. Due to its close proximity to 99L, it could be shearing it causing it to weaken. Previously 99L had been steering pieces of energy off of the eastern seaboard of the US underneath it and into Europe. It still does this however this time one of the pieces develops rapidly. The GFS is notorious for over intensifying systems so we’ll see if it continues to show this new system (also if the Euro picks up on it) or it drops it come 06z.

Latest on 99L (Azores low). As I stated earlier, the GFS is normally biased towards the east with tropical systems (loves to plow right through ridges). That’s not always the case though. This is interesting as it’s the most western track of the lot (AVNI). TVCN is one to watch because when the NHC makes predictions on the track of systems, it’s almost always very similar to the TVCN. As of now it’s obviously splitting the difference between the Euro/GFS (it’s a blended model after all).

As an American who religiously follows tropical weather with a lot of experience. The GFS loves to blow up every storm into a strong hurricane where the Euro under does this (intensity wise). The GFS also has an “east” bias historically speaking. The Euro used to be fantastic but as of late has not done so well. The UKMO is decent on its tracking (west bias) but pretty bad at intensity. The last few hurricane seasons have been a headache when it comes to model guidance. TVCN (blended model) would be the one to follow as it’s the most accurate. It’s what the NHC uses for its forecasting. https://my.sfwmd.gov/dbhydroplsql/dbhydro_web_qry.storm_display

Only a waste of time if you focus on details 8 days onwards.

A lot of grinches in this thread right now . Tons of positivity in the models over the last 12 hours. I think a few people are focusing on their backyard a bit too much. Synoptics are what’s important as of now, not details like show charts being lackluster at 200hrs. Granted it could all vanish at any given moment but I think there’s plenty of data supporting posters that are excited about the possibilities heading into a Christmas/NYE.

The cold trend continues with the 0z

Gfs 06z looked very good for Central Europe as well.

A bit cooler in Central Europe at 138hrs on the 12z vs the 6z.

The JMA? Lol come on now!

Yeah I have to disagree. No model has a verification rate at 14days that could be seen as reliable. However I do concede that the likely hood of a cold Christmas is not looking great.

I hear you, but there are still 14 days until Christmas and two weeks out is certainly not a reliable time period for any model. Granted it does not look great for snow/cold lovers for the next week but there is still time for a turn around for the week after.

What a post. Thank you for that effort as it must have taken some time to put together. What numbers did yo use to differentiate between mild and very mild/ cold very cold?

Can we lock this in please?

I think he meant the above avg temps of the previous few seasons.

Is the pub run ready to do the job again?

Actually a little latter on in the run is probably an even better example .

That is awesome. I always wondered if Europe, or other places in the world for that matter, received what is known in the US as "Lake Effect Snow". You wouldn't happen to know where I can find a radar loop of that event from Jan 19' do you? I remember when I lived in the mountains of West Virginia, USA (around 200mi from lake Erie). Our forecast one night was for light snow (from Erie vis lake effect) with little to no snow accumulation. Well we got extremely lucky and got some enhancement from the terrain and ended up with 8 inches that night. Still to this day the most unexpected snowfall I have ever witnessed. Where I am at in Poland is about 125ish km from the Baltic. I would assume under the right conditions Sea Effect Snow would be possible. In fact at 300hr on the 18z GFS run last night there appeared to be some streamers coming in off the Baltic right over my location. You can also also see the orographic lift in southern Poland with a strong NNE wind.

18z, P18.. Something about that number huh?

Here's to the pub run later tonight !

I was expecting this to happen given the 06z's track record as of late.