STRiZZY

Sorry I didn’t specify, Gorzow Wielkopolski, which is in between Berlin and Poznan. So a pretty lack luster area for snowfall. Especially the last decade. That makes sense about the Gulf can provide a moisture flow that Central Europe would have no chance of seeing. However; I was wondering if any intense cyclones formed over the Baltic and dived south?

Yes! As soon as I saw the model I said that’s exactly the diagram @Blessed Weather drew up last week! Let’s hope something similar comes to fruition.

Are you honestly suggesting that at the mid latitudes in the northern hemisphere that there isn’t predominantly west to east flow?

33.33333.......3333% and so on. Aka 1/3

Agreed. The variations are to be expected if you paid any attention to this years hurricane season. Wild flips and flops from the models from run to run with no consensus outside of even 48hrs. We have to remember that what the models try to do (predict our weather) is an extremely, extremely difficult undertaking. Our atmosphere is filled with infinitesimal swirls which makes the task even harder, not to mention the 1,000,000 other factors. There is still twenty days until Christmas, plenty of time for anything to happen (good or bad) with the models.

Pub Run will give us some hope surely

60% of the time it works every time

Yes please!

It is December 3rd. You all can not be serious haha.

Wow thank you all so much! Starting to understand European winter a bit better.

@Blessed Weather After going over the information on UK Winter setups, I can see how with a Scandi High this could result in snow for the UK. What about central Europe? Where would the precipitation come from in such a scenario?

10:30am update... -2C (Real Feel -6C) winds out of the southeast at 13kmh. Light snow shower with fog.

-2C (-7 Real Feel) with snow flurries and fog in Eastern Poland. Expecting some light snow showers in a few hours.

0c (Feels like -4c) with a 13KHM wind from the east, under mostly cloudy skies. Low tonight is -4c with a real feel around -7c.

What do MJO phases 5 and 6 mean for Central Europe?

Thank you very much

Thank you Paul! Sorry I missed that, it is exactly what I was looking for.

Hi all! Brand new to the forum and to Europe (Poland). I am from the states and over there I understand quite a bit about meteorology and tropical weather/winter weather in the states. When it comes to winter storms I understand what set-ups are best (synoptically speaking) for winter weather to occur. I can look at various maps and get a sense of what is going on. I know the benchmarks for different types of storms (Clipper systems, Miller A,B/Nor'easters) etc. However I know nothing about European winter weather. In fact when I look at the ECMWF or GFS for Europe it is like nothing make sense. So much going on, cyclones here and there, snow to the south of a system while rain to the north. Is there a source(s) (books, blogs, YouTube) for information that can help me understand what needs to occur synoptically for winter storms in Europe (Western, Central and Eastern)? All I have been able to gather from Poles is that the true frigid air comes from Russia (The Beast From The East) they call it "continental cold". In the states all of our cold shots come from the north, so it is a bit strange to think of easterlies as being cold. Also in the states, we have names for certain winter storms that form in particular ways and take distinct tracks (mainly for the east coast), is there anything similar to this in Europe (pics included)? When I look at the weather models everything just seems so chaotic here I am kind of doubting that you have anything as consistent happening. Anyway, I am happy I found this forum and I can't wait to learn more about the European Winter as Poland is home for now. Thanks!