DecSeventeen

7cm fall this morning here! Some pics from a beautiful walk, very special event for around here :) Edit: unrelated but not sure why that's underlined, didn't mean for it to be

Shift south of that Thursday/Friday low on GFS 12z, bringing N Wales and N Midlands back into the game on this particular run.

Brilliant ICON for around the Midlands/Wales (away from SW Wales) with snow events on both Thursday and Saturday with this run, not so good for further south with milder 850s giving rain.

Thanks, don't plan on being a super regular poster like a lot of you guys on here (all doing a brilliant job), but I'll try to from time to time

This will likely be ignored as I've never posted on here before, however I've been a regular winter lurker since 2018, so really it's about time I got on with it and actually did a post. This whole situation, the question of whether the low will move through too far N, too far S, give snow to the N, to the S, bring in mild air too quickly and so on and so on is one that isn't going to be resolved for several days yet, this is something that's been said many times already yes I know, just thought I'd restate that. One thing that I think is important to note though is that opinions on any individual run/model is going to vary greatly dependent on the location of the poster - anyone in southern England will say a run that shows rain for them a poor run, even if that same run has a major snow event for northern England. And I'm not in any way suggesting that this is a bad thing, because yes of course everyone wants the snow in their location, so everyone will post their opinions based on that, but just want to highlight the way that that can make following the situation pretty confusing for everyone since so many different opinions are getting thrown around, based on location. For my location, something like the GFS 12z today would be the absolute sweet spot, I wouldn't want things ending up much further N or S of that scenario however we all know that in the intervening 6 days, it's pretty likely to end up somewhere else. Wherever things end up, the only certain thing is that there's going to be a whole lot of changes and swings in the next few days, and I think the best thing to hope for at this stage is just that the low ends up tracking in a position which will give snow to somewhere in the country. We all hope that somewhere will be our respective locations, but ultimately it's just nice to have such exciting model output to watch despite being pretty late in the season.