Lord Grogon
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Posts posted by Lord Grogon
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27C here. Sun’s out. Kids in the paddling pool.
Most likely the last day of proper summer….
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32.7 at Heathrow. Hottest day of the year!
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3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
To be honest a few weeks back I managed to catch a forecast on the BBC, and the presenter was saying not to bother with the graphics, and trying to say what was happening where, wasn't really watching properly as had put the channel on for the program after. But it really looked like hard work.
Good for them! One reason not to save even more money by having ChatGPT present the weather just yet.
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4 minutes ago, danm said:
It’s because the weather maps use the latest short term his red model runs for their graphics, which in some situations can be pretty wrong. They don’t often replace that with a now cast graphic or amend them manually to take into account what is actually happening. They will just keep using the latest model run graphic.
The problem as I understand it is that hi-res models basically use global models as a starting point. They then add in all the extra details such as local topography. That's how you get from a massive blob on the GFS to the tiny little things you see on the high res models. But ultimately they are based on the global model and will not adjust a large feature such as a front 100-200 miles north or south.
So in somewhere like the UK: a small island with quite "messy" weather, you get stuck a bit between a rock and a hard place. Globals aren't accurate enough and hi-res cannot make large enough adjustments to compensate.
At the same time our modern society demands ever more detailed, regular forecasts that can only be delivered using computer model outputs. Which forecasters of course cannot simply get a crayon out and adjust at the last moment. So they possibly know what they are presenting is wrong, but what can they do?
Apologies if this is all gobbeldygook. I work with financial models, but in truth I know naff all about weather models beyond what I pick up from this site - interesting as it is!
1 minute ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:As per usual with our troll of a climate's whims, the dross has cleared just in time for the evening
Just enough time for us to win the cricket.
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12 minutes ago, Alderc 2.0 said:
TV forecasts today have again been dire and it never looked like being anywhere near a playable afternoon. Goes back to what I was saying in the model thread a couple of days ago about admitting errors! Bet there’ll be no ‘sorry all, effed this one up today’
I do find it strange how a same day forecast can be so wrong. The TV forecast I posted earlier was from 8am this morning. Surely they would have seen the rain band was further north. It was an organised thing, not just convection.
I hope it is just me being an ignorant plank and missing things.
But sometimes I worry that a lot of modern forecasts are simply “computer says”. Too much pulling data direct from models, that can easily be wrong by a couple of hundred miles. Less money/time available for the instinctive human bits.-
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Hmmm, BBC forecast this morning seems a touch out. Glad I didn’t plan a day out of the house with the kids today. Hedging bets on tomorrow instead…
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You think Butlins is bad. Try Centre Parcs for truly sobering prices during the school holidays.
Many people I know do Eurocamp. Just as nice, cheaper, and (usually) better weather. It’s a shame there isn’t more choice in the UK, but I guess the recent weather here answers that question.
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2 hours ago, Alderc said:
Last time this was brought up I believe the 18Z was the highest verifying of the GFS suite.
As a non-technically knowledged reader of this site, I find it quite funny that the model often heralded as "the pub run" is actually the most accurate.
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50 minutes ago, kold weather said:
Another season that this is reminding me is 2006, that also had a cooler and wetter spring but morphed into something very impressive through late May and into June. Also developing El Nino and SSW in early spring I believe.
Anyways the 06z GFS decides to try and shove a cutoff low into the UK past day 10 which shunts a developing heatwave into Europe. There thankfully is very little support for that type of evolution throughout the models and indeed in GFS own ensembles. The reason is the GFS 06z op creates a much deeper low coming off Canada around 168hrs which forces a more westerly Azores high pump up and over the top of any cutoff low that might form. Instead most have a slightly more progressive pattern which flattens the high right over the UK.
Most runs look very high pressure dominated, and the pattern may allow for a heatwave to develop around the 25th June. This is still a somewhat low risk outcome but I do think warm and HP are going to be the theme of things going forward once the wetter stuff works its way through this weekend.
July 2006 remains the hottest month on record in the UK. CET was 19.8C. Could have been the first 20C but the heatwave broke down in the last coupled of days.
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I'm looking forward to tomorrow.
It's going to be like the "will it/won't it get to 40C?" from last year. But less scary and crazy hot.
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46 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
And Heathrow does not always read a few degrees higher than surrounding areas. Kew Gardens reads higher on average. Must be all the concrete flowers
Also, how come Heathrow holds zero U.K. temperature records if it’s readings are artificially high? 
Funnily enough I think the station at City Airport is worse. It always seems to be a couple of degrees lower in the summer and a couple of degrees warmer in the winter compared to the surrounding stations.
If you look at the map where the station is actually located, it's surrounded quite closely by water on three sides. Definitely distorted and not exactly representative of most of the urban area around it.
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1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
You’re probably right as the Met Office have no warnings for the South East for Sun night/Mon morning
If I recall, the warning for the last event was put up quite late and even then marked as low risk.
These little features seem to pop up quite late. Forecasters nightmare.
The Dec one gave us the most snow in over 10 years. But it was a local event and for once I was very lucky.
Not so sure this time though. The cold was much more entrenched last time so less marginality risk. Usually when these systems come in quick something goes wrong.
Fingers and toes crossed though. Work sucks at the moment so it would be nice to avoid the office!
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13 minutes ago, FetchCB said:
Synoptically closer to Burns Day Storm in Jan 1990 although not as deep.
Oct 87 the storm approached from the South West and was a singular depression whereas Burns Day had a parent depression in the 950's with a secondary low that tracked across southern Scotland
Aye, but look at the path of the low. Forms near the Bay of Biscay, then tracks NNE. Similar to 87, although 87 was much more extreme with the crazy jet stream angle.
Burns Day was a secondary low, but path was much more West to East. I remember it well. Lived in the West Country at the time. Deconstructed large chunks of of my school!
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Forget Jan87. Latest GFS seems to have gone all Oct87 on us in 5 days time.
Thankfully the only model that is showing this though.
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Well that's a first for me.
Went out at 8am for my Sunday morning run. -3C, thick fog, absolutely beautiful frost covering everything (great for running as you get all of the aesthetics, but less of the practical annoyances associated with snow).
By the time I had got back, thick white frost had formed all over my legs, well leg hairs to be precise. Astonishing sight. Missus tried to take a photo, but sadly it melted almost as soon as I had entered the house. Been running regularly for over 15 years and have never experienced that.
Anyway, fingers crossed for the snow later. Even if I get one flake, it will be an improvement on last winter.
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Gets a good rating from me.
Lack of rain has consequences of course, but having warm and dry weather throughout the school holiday period has been fantastic. Certainly the best August for a few years. June was a bit meh but not a disaster.
But the highlight simply from a historic perspective was those crazy 2 days in July. The fact the models picked it up so far in advance and seeing the excitement build up on this site. Yes, I appreciate people will say it was a bad thing, global warming blah blah! And I totally agree it's, god forbid, not something we want to be happening every year. But to experience something like that in the UK was truly exceptional.
8/10 for the summer in general, bonus point for the mad July so 9/10 total.
On a par I'd say with 2018 that gets 9/10 just for the summer.
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19 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:
The temperatures has reached or exceeded 34c on four consecutive days. Charlwood reaching 34.1c, not sure if any other station got higher today.
Charlwood also held the UK highest temperature record this year on 19 July. Albeit only for about 45 minutes.
It’s been an exciting year for the weather enthusiasts there!
Does seem quite extreme. I know in 2020 there were 6 days I think where it exceeded 34C in a row, but if I recall they were in different places.-
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20 minutes ago, NTC said:
The heatlovers like MattWolves, Seb, Scorcher don't want it to end, the heathaters want it to end, so the former see any rain as unlikely because it's been dry for so long the latter see any map with a blob of rain on it as a sign the heatwave is over. There are few on here who sit in the middle, so when it comes to the weather the extremes will use any chart that proves their point of view. The lack of JonSnow posts recently suggests to me the heatwave is ending from Monday.
It will always be very difficult to get a truly balanced analysis in an internet thread with hundreds of posters with varying levels of skill, experience and biases. Key I think is to pick a few people who seem reliable and treat everything else as a bit of fun. The “Pro” label is pretty useful as that select few on here definitely seem to analyse the data first with any personal preferences kept strictly second.
Personally I quite enjoy reading the ups and downs. It’s just us being human. Only thing that bugs me is when people just say an opinion with no context e.g. “awful ECM today!” It adds nothing and simply clogs the thread.
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4 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:
I know what you mean but I see that as a bad thing. Don’t want to see that kind of heat up into Iceland or Greenland.
Totally agree. Just thought synoptic wise it looked quite dramatic.
Personally I’m done with crazy heatwaves for now (I live just up the road from Wennington village).Next week weather app is showing steady 26-28 and decent sunshine. Perfect for the kids!
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Perturbation 16 is magnificent. The plume almost reaches Greenland!
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That’s a couple of consecutive GFS runs now that are building significant heat in week 2 of Aug. Couple more and it may be worth an eyebrow raise or two.
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4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
I get the feeling you've forgotten about August 2020? That month had a good week of high pressure domination and hot temps.
But yes it is looking promising all of a sudden. The GFS was on the money for the heat last week a long way out so hopefully it's correct again. The high shown in FI looks like it would take some shifting.
Not sure about the rest of the month, but Aug 2019 had a pretty fine heatwave at the back end as well. Broke the bank holiday max temp record if I recall correctly.
Aug 2018 too also has a week and a half of hot before it all broke down. Dragged the family to Southend for the last 30C day of that long glorious event.
Aug 2016 wasn’t half bad either.
So at least in my part of the world Augusts haven’t been too bad in recent years. Appreciate they haven’t been full months of walk to wall sunshine, but that tends to be rare in Any month.
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I had it on last Tuesday.
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1 minute ago, Nick L said:
Yep, this dry, breezy inferno is having no impact at all...
Sun is still there I see. Good to know.
Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Lord Grogon
Funnily enough though. If you look at the origin of the storm on the GFS run, it does actually start as a hurricane. It merges with a LP system just before it hits the South West.
Imagine if by some miracle this were to happen, the newspaper headline writers would go into overdrive.