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Notty

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Tamara said:

    Typo indeed. Thanks for pointing it out😉

    In respect of the pattern, I am very interested in the stratospheric lead as the second half of the winter approaches and under the tropospheric considerations as laid out again in todays summary and which other GSDM analysis from @Met4Castand @Catacolare equally observing.

    There is so much poleward tropospheric ammunition to hand, it does make one wonder how the polar field will respond in respect of persistent diminution bombardment. There is an argument for suggesting that too much forcing can actually alter usual pathway responses. But the GSDM diagnostic fully evidences the latest seasonal updates such as from Glosea.

    The kayaks and shuffled polar roadblock are emphatically there to see.

    @Tamara are you and @tight isobar related perhaps ? 😂

    • Like 6

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    At day 7 the UKMO and ECM have this - granted the cold 850s aren’t sinking into Spain but it’s a strong signal - the GFS Op has been an outlier on numerous occasions. The METO are saying it could be a cold few weeks - I don’t think saying the GFS Op is clueless is far from the truth at all. 
     

    Granted - we need upgrades on the 12zs and can’t afford the signal to keep weakening for a more lengthy cold outbreak. 

    IMG_2560.png

    IMG_2555.png

    IMG_2551.png

    Looks fantastic to me

    • Like 1

    Autumn & Winter 2023---2024 Stratospheric Polar Vortex. Events, Analysis, Discussions AND Outlooks

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    40 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    As you know I pm’d you way back in Dec that I anticipated a SSW early Jan ….for me it’s here and happening.  I don’t think Cohen is talking about the end of winter is nigh on over here.  I’ll stick to my gins, deep cold landing point 14-16 Jan…..bonus with initial thrust for S/SE in t48 hrs….but that will ease….main thrust remains 14-16.  This strat warming has/is imo currently being underplayed and will have a big knock on effect.  Don’t expect ‘continuous’ deep cold….but 

    I’ll stick to my gins  ^^ 😀

    🍸🍸🍸 Party on 🎉 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

    I really don’t understand the fascination with bone dry, cold, Sunny Easterlies. Some might get the odd shower under this set up surely you need lower heights. 

    We need to start somewhere.

    ”Get the cold in …” etc.

    Even if it cold and dry there is often a snowy breakdown for someone.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, TSNWK said:

    Is it too much to ask! Gfs to upgrade early and maintain the later push..... I dont think it is.  Icon short team upgrade is relatively small at macro level and you would like to think global drivers that come into play later would not be Impacted by such tittle tattle....:)

    My guess is the GFS will show -8 uppers and snow streamers into Kent by Monday morning 😀

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    I'm just sharing my honest concerns which are genuine and I believe grounded concerns.

    Do not take this as me discounting the potential, I am simply highlighting obstacles which we need to avoid.

    We can't always be so one sided and deny the presence of concerning synoptic mechanisms which may make the cold spell less potent. These are also the factors which could enhance the cold spell so it's important we recognise them. I think a cold spell is a certainty now. 

    However I do not use some of the passive aggressive language which has been aimed at me recently to any other poster in here with a different view. I am quite shocked at how some people have used degrading language towards people with a different perspective. And even this morning over my analysis of one model run and using that against me to suggest I was predicting 20cm of snow. 

    Use the ignore button Kasim 🙂

    • Like 7
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