[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

 This looks like the end of weather as we know it. All I can say is model this

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

This is a 'Model Output Discussion' thread not a 'Guess it's going to be Mediocre' one. For my money there is clear movement ( in the models that is) towards Galloping Polar Bears with pointy nosed Arctic Foxes on their shoulders territory. Not that I'm biased or anything.

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

44 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Confidence over the next 2 weeks is higher than usual with a strong signal for above average temperatures right out to the 21st February at least. 
 

An SSW now looks highly likely with a reversal to easterlies and a displacement event. These can take 2-4 weeks to impact the surface levels putting us towards mid-March. 

The BFTE 2018 was the largest impact from an SSW on record so I think the chances of a repeat are pretty unlikely. Going to need some fairly exceptional synoptics to produce the goods in mid-March so I think the chances of a notable cold/snowy period on the back of this SSW are low. 

Still, a mild outlook is great for not having steep energy bills. 

The time scales still allow the possibility for March to come in like a Polar Bear this year. "towards mid March'" could just as probably be " early March". The name of the game must be Hunting for Cold not Wishing for Mild otherwise we might as well pack up and go home.

[Our first 20°C day of the year]

On 21/01/2023 at 06:22, SummerShower said:

With southern Europe being so warm therell be an unusual pattern in mid March where a very late beast from the east meets an early spanish plume. Temperature on the 15th will be -18..3c at Sennybridge, but as early as the 17th will have shot up to 23.2C at Heathrow, with widespread thundersnow giving the heaviest snowfalls since 2010 in the south, before a very rapid thaw. 1947 style flooding will unfortunately ensue though.

Thank you S.S.; memories of Old Moore's Almanack came flooding back then.

I'll go for the Ides of March ( Wednesday 15 March).

 

[Change in character of February]

February is only different to my mind and memory ( which has a longer reach than I would wish it to have) in as much that it used to be snowy and now it's just dreary. The thread starts with the observation that February used to be " the dryest of the winter months" but weather lore names it " Fill dyke February". I'm not quite sure how we square that contradiction!

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

55 minutes ago, Hull 1963 said:

I was reading an article lately regarding the Beaufort Gyre. They say that according to some researchers it is starting to give.  They are suggesting that combined with a solar minimum, future winters will make this winter seem like a golden age of tropical warmth.

An interesting take on things and worth considering as a possibility in my opinion.

If it was this article on the Beaufort Gyre you refer to you are quite right; it's fascinating. It could well be that 'The Hunt For Cold' is more meaningfully focused on the reversal event herelded here. I feel our experience of warming winters over the last 20 years or so points to a big change such as this as a prerequisite before we can have reliable snow events in these Islands again.

How a Wayward Arctic Current Could Cool the Climate in Europe

E360.YALE.EDU

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The Beaufort Gyre, a key Arctic Ocean current, is acting strangely. Scientists say it may be on the verge of discharging a huge amount of ice and cold...