[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

GFS                                                                           ECM 

                

lol Bit of a difference at 216

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 northwestsnow Yes I appreciate that but we will have cold periods in our winters..........much more extremes Summer also. 

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

but they are now becoming almost non existent.

Seriously ?

2009 ( Jan cold Feb very cold ) 2010 ,2012 ( Jan cold end Feb cold and snowy first half ,severe frosts ) 2013 ( Jan cold in the middle ) March very cold ,2018,2021 ( Feb cold first half with snow from the East ) 2022 Dec was a cold month. It's all swings and roundabouts. We will no doubt experience decent winters again..............IMO 

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

12 hours ago, CoventryWeather said:

The 2018 BOTE is and will always be a once in a decade or even century event

But is it ? March 2013 was colder 

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 bluearmy I think we have just been unlucky, our time will come again. There have been warmer winters 60,70, 80 years ago.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

This                                                                           to this 

      

Still hope 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I for one am still hope of something cold last week of Feb early March, I am not defeated yet...................hey, what about a white Easter ? 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch I'm betting it's at the high end Luke

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

CFS = Can't forecast snow ............about as reliable as EC46, both are great when showing eye candy but in reality not much clue beyond 7-10 days.........................like most models I guess 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch Improvement on the 0z 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Not too bad from GEFS EH?

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Let's not lose hope just yet  

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

2 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

. It's all well and good removing posts when they don't read what you want but the reality is as a model output discussion

It is, so what is wrong with posting charts? So let people discuss the charts that are posted ???

[Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion]

1 minute ago, Woldsedge said:

hink it might have been March 79 when much of the NE was cut off by snow mid March. 

March. A stormy, wet month, with some heavy snow in the Midlands and North midmonth. The NE was particularly badly affected in the third week. Snowstorms cut off Newcastle: five days of snow gave 46 cm of cover. 175 mm of rain recorded in the first week at Fort William: three times the monthly avrage!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

44 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

There are 6/7 decent ensembles at day 9 a bit like these, but I think people are just fed up so not seeing the possibilities here. I think some rapid swings to better Synoptics are really quite probable. 

Totally agree, just gone through them all, no need to write anything off yet. 

[Model banter and emotions]

14 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

, I'm not sure many would be happy with winter finally arriving in March

I would, not even a flake here this winter

[Model banter and emotions]

3 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

March will provide snow. But will be gone by lunch.

March snow can hang around for more than a few hours, that's a misleading comment ...................as you know 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The basket of straws is emptying rapidly, but there is still hope. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

1 hour ago, Chesil View said:

Going from multiple runs of ultra mild soutwesterlies. To an easterly then a slowly retrogressing UK high.

 

Boring as I am, but a few on here were going for southerlies and saying METO have this wrong with their take on Easterlies, yes not a freeze up but get the HP in place first. It's a decent set of runs we have seen 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch If the HP gets up to Greenland, we need to look N /NE  

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

This can't be a surprise, MET have been  promoting this for a while. 

[Model banter and emotions]

3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

promising Northerlies for weeks

That's a slight exaggeration I know 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 E17boy It's also been touted mid Feb. ish, but the weather isn't running to a UK timetable  , it can be delayed, the 46 has pushed for blocking mid Feb onwards, that is being shown on ECM and GFS and in the Met text forecast.

Let's just see where we go...........................no one has bad luck forever  

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

        

 

       

Just some charts that don't look especially great but there is cold around, maybe the expectation has gone through the roof this season. I still think we will get a cold spell of sorts with some snow around