Lloyd1

We’ll be sunbathing down West Wales come Christmas the way it’s going

Am I right in saying that the ecm and gfs are showing two completely different scenarios at present. Bare in mind I’m west Wales so thats why temps are so high in the pics but ecm is really getting interesting in terms of snow if that is what they are showing even for us Westerns. Thanks

There’s a big one lerking in the background

What do you think for Narberth? Do you think the snow will hold or do you think rain is inevitable in the next couple of hours?

I agree with James, the intensity of this wind aswell is something else. I think it will push right through but will unfortunately turn to rain down Pembrokeshire when the mild makes further inroads. You guys further east should be in for something.

Narberth Pembrokeshire

Heavy snow here now, powder aswell.

Nothing down West, this Met Office Warning should be removed

At the minute, BBC / Met are giving us down in Pembrokeshire a poor forecast, we have the snow just slight missing us with Saturday being sleet / rain. Lets just hope the forecast follows ICON for all of us to get a bit. Light snow here now but nothing to excited about

I'm so confused, BBC Video Forecast just stated "the cold air is going to win" for the end of the week. Like what is going on haha this is so funny and frustrating at the same time

All forecasts now are favouring the Atlantic to go straight through, I understand that this is a tricky topic but just don't forecast that far ahead if you are that uncertain. I mean some forecasts this morning have 10 degree swings from yesterday, I mean that is ridiculous. Literally no point in looking at forecasts up until 24hrs.

ECMWF on ‘Windy’ app still showing something to look forward to for Thursday through to Monday as attached and GFS is similar. Don’t pay attention to Met / BBC online forecast just yet, I mean the bbc long term video forecast said that there was a strong chance the cold would stay put. Thus, contradicting what bbc 10 day is saying. I mean I’m normally pessimistic so take that in to account haha. It’s rare we get a chance to see an easterly going against the Atlantic right over us with the odds in the easterly’s favour so let’s just watch this space.

I find these long term maps so amusing haha

This will be exciting whatever way it goes, the Met Office is going completely against BBC and other forecasts, predicting the Atlantic to smash its way through. Who will be the winner of this do you think? Please bare in mind, I'm the furthest West so you guys will be more in with a shout of serious snow further East if temps lift slightly.

This can't be right surely haha looking at the maps and video forecast I cant see any showers stretching down Pembrokeshire.

After reviewing the chart types in some depth the ECMWF seems to be very consistent in forecasting this cold spell continuing, bringing a strong risk of heavy snow Thursday / Friday. The GFS has been all over the shop, last night it was giving me temps of around 11degress for weekend coming but has now changed it’s mind. Attached is the current ECMWF by the ‘windy’ app.

I did notice. The ‘windy’ app is showing a cold spell continuing under GFS.

Need for what? Apologies if my demeanour came across in a bad way, I’ve got no issues with anyone in this chat and readily enjoy everyone’s comments including yourself, I guess my tone can sometimes come across resolute in nature. Anyhow, I believe I have come across a very good app called ‘Windy’ can anyone recommend? Seems to be a top notch weather tool.

I thought that was the whole point of a discussion thread? I’m assuming people’s views tend to conflict another’s during a normal discussion until an agreement or validity in data is achieved

I've been reading Mets 30 days for years and they always cover themselves on all angles. They tend to say it could be cold but also say it could be mild (vis versa). Thus, giving the perception that they’re on point with their long term forecasts but actually quite the opposite. I think if you refer back to it, it follows a similar tone. Don’t get me wrong I prefer the Met from the BBC but it’s something to be mindful of

I don’t have any to hand I just view all the ones on that deep cold thread, if you can point me to a website that I can get access to then I will be happy to have a look. Please remember, I’m looking for you guys to go against my theory and give me some hope for some snow Edit: yes I’m situated in West Wales and I’m sure you can realise my point haha

Unfortunately, I think this spell is going to be a big let down for us snow lovers in Wales, I don’t know why people are still confident that this will last on for some time on the other threads. A term ‘once the cold is in its hard to get rid of’ keeps popping up but this is not the case. Nearly all models are clearly showing that the Atlantic will take a strong grip on our weather before it has time to snow from around the 11th Feb. I’m going to say we will see some snow to high ground (Brecon, north Wales, etc.) during that short battle between cold and mild but I think it will be mostly rain to most levels as that mild pushes in and takes over in quick time. If someone thinks different and has different proof then let me know because I’m all ears on this.

Anyone else looking at the snow storm coming in to NE England haha, I'm still looking forward to this brief cold spell but can we possibly pick up Wales and move it over

I’ve said it before on another thread and I will reiterate again, don’t get your hopes up with those snow charts for 10th Feb. I understand that some people like to be optimistic on this but the likelyhood is that it will either not run along that trajectory and miss us south or it will push through us along that trajectory pushing the cold back out and it will most likely turn to rain on that leading edge. Ideal situation would be like we had on Sunday but with the cold high maintaining a strong presence over Wales and pushing the low back South gradually whilst we take advantage of that moisture with the cold air in place. Don’t know what you guys think on this but just my opinion from past experience in the West.

It’s hilarious They should try and live on the mild west coast of Wales haha don’t see us moaning