[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

Really poor show this winter (so far). 

We had one decent snowfall in late Jan but it melted within an hour and we have been marginal this weekend with very light snow but hardly anything settling.

Bring on Spring

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

20 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

It definitely won’t just be a coastal event. Not sure where you’re getting this info from?

So far today it seems to be mainly hugging the coastal areas and a little bit inland but no where near as what was originally envisaged 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Any thoughts on how progressive it will be? I feel Chilterns are the westerly limit?

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Breaking up as just as it gets to Luton. Not hopefully for anything now 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

For those to the North and West of London it is goibg to be a nowcast i think. Currently models still not sure how far this will spread.

HARMONIE, ICON and GFS for 3pm today

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Fat wet flakes here. Has been for last 20 mins. 

Temp dropping. Currently at 2. 

Not picked up as snow on radars 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

9 minutes ago, joespontiac said:

Chicken and chorizo paella washed down with some dark fruits followed by cheesecake and a prayer for some westward movement and/or streamers that come far enough inland

Heres hoping! 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

The HAR.. isn’t a bad low-middle precipitation mod... as for the ARPEGE.. it’s only good as a nowcast/imment mid... imo....

Yes. I like the HAR. Seemed to track the event 2 weeks back well. I'm feeling less and less positive. Some good snowfalls for those to the east. Id be suprised of anything in my location. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

7 minutes ago, bRi87 said:

Just signed up to this site after lurking for a long time.

Going by your username you may be a good one to ask about our chances here in Prestwood, Gt. Missenden, are we likely to see snow?

Hello. Yes. I'm just down road. But much lower ASL

I think we will see dustings tomorrow. But chances seems to be reducing. With it contained more easterly. Frustrating as last night it was showing a much further spread inland. There are always showers that will pop up.

Later in week looks like it has potential 

 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

The convective shower activity =possibilities.. are endless... that’s one stiff sheer easterly @incoming...banded activity is looking ripe as a peach

Fingers crossed. Really hoping for a covering and more in the week. 

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Yesterday it didnt even make it to me. 

So it's an improvement since then.

Hope you get some! 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

HARMONIE does give a more westerly spread. This model did quite well on the event a few weeks back.

Fingers and toes crossed for those on west side

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

9 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It definitely won’t just be a coastal event. Not sure where you’re getting this info from?

ARPERGE for tomorrow afternoon. You can see it has drifted further South East compared to a few days back where the spread was far further west. Im hoping im suprised. 

Later in day looks like some showers to pop up and Monday some potential too. 

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

It definitely won’t just be a coastal event. Not sure where you’re getting this info from?

From looking at the models drift slightly south east over the past few days. Apologises, should of been clearer it won't just be coastal areas but those much further inland i think it will be marginal. 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

2 hours ago, MJB said:

I will ..........................I think we will get some sort of covering , just depends if we get lucky and be get under a line of showers , I am more looking towards Thursday as the Atlantic tries to get in 

I'm minded to agree. I'm in Aylesbury so a few miles south and east. Looking marginal this weekend. More promise throughout week though 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Get the impression this weekends event will be disappointing for many except coastal parts of EA, Essex and Kent.

Seems to be shrinking in size with not much chance of inland snow.

Edit. Apologises was looking at more IMBY so much firther inland. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Any idea about North home counties...e.g bucks? I think we might see something. But perhaps a tad too westerly

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

The MO precip animation makes it look a far wider affair - i wonder if amber warnings will spread?

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

By Dan Holley ...

Thanks for this. MO changing a lot - i had 5 hours of heavy now, now only 2 hours of light snow. Still uncertainty over how far west this will push?

I'd be frustrated if we only get 1-5cm after seeing so many depth charts of 10cm+ in Bucks

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

The only charts predicting that are the ones that have been atrociously wrong so far this winter, that should give us enough hope !! GFS will be the best bet for this IMO... 

Let's see. The last snow event a few weekends back the Harmonie nailed it pretty much...(kept it north and east) where as Icon dropped it south. 

Excited to see where this goes tomorrow.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Regardless of what happens the flow looks good beyond Sunday, especially Monday afternoon-Tusday afternoon.

Also, its worth noting the models really are all over the place at the moment. Just as many give a good event to all the region as don't.

Probably a balance between not overhyping the good runs but not getting overly attached to the doom runs either.

As I said before, these events can lead to surprises, both good and bad.

As I said earlier, the 1-2nd Dec 2010 event is not dissimilar to what is forecasted here, and that also only forecasted to give small amounts further west, forecasted 1-3cms in Chichester. I ended up with about 20-22cms!

Thanks. Great post

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

That was always expected though I think. These LP systems nearly always trend south as you approach the event.

Yet again, people in this thread fretting over precipitation charts!

No fret from me. Just saying what I see. And trying to be useful. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

I get a feeling sundays event is tracking much further south and east. Yesterday it was far further north and west (with most of EA over into northern home counties) but today I see it is tracking lower and I think by end of tomorrow the sweet spot may be east Sussex Nd Kent and areas of Suffolk.

Shame for those north and west of London

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

45 minutes ago, WheresTheSnow said:

That’s what we like to see  

And a Watford Fan! Even better.

 

You orns

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

however, Aperge seems to want to drag this further South.

 

Excited few days to see where this will land.

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

8 minutes ago, WheresTheSnow said:

The GFS has been consistently showing snow all day for the south on Sunday. I know that it’s not great for precipitation amounts but I’ve seen contrasting views saying that showers won’t even get west enough past London.

Can the GFS be that far off the mark on precipitation? Surely most of the south (bar the coasts and towards the west) should get a couple centimetres minimum if it stays as the GFS shows?

Icon suggests it will spreader westerly