[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

Interesting ICON much further SW for sunday. Intrigued from an IMBY who will out 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

What is best model for dew points? Slight concerned im at 90 asl (on downslope of chilterns). And this is current DP for 48hrs when peak snowfall expected (GFS)

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

Harmonie at 48 hrs. 

 

 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

18z GFS tomorrow and Sunday 

Looking good. Waiting till tomorrow's runs before getting excited

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

11 minutes ago, Griff said:

Slightly sceptical, but it would be welcomed here! 

agree. Still 2 days out. 

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

42 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM still taking the front on Sunday further North / East than other models. Up to 13cm south mids! I’d go for cotswolds / Chikterns being among best places 

Interesting and definitely would take this. We have had nothing this way (chilterns , Bucks). We usually do fairly well. 

 

AROME AND APERGE don't seem to give as much as this. As always still a few days out

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

39 minutes ago, fromey said:

Oh god! Just when I thought I could stop coming on here 3 times a day

Only 3? 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

1 hour ago, chris55 said:

Its in my diary lol...... Snow event for the middle section of the UK next weekend. It'll be news worthy.

Im expecting snowman pics from Cheltenham, Swindon, Hereford, Oxford, MiltonKeynes as a guide  

Praying!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

Very frustrating. I'm too far west for this event and I was too far east for the previous minor event. I swear we are always just too far out each time. 

I expect to see some sleet but again too marginal and i really hate snow to rain events.

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Surely the whole UK going bitterly cold eventually The trend is your friend and its all heading to cold and snow for all. 

Would have to have the most rotten luck to miss out now. 

Here we go again 

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

Agreed. Lots of hype and very little delivered yet. 

 

Still time for the Thames to freeze over 

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

6 minutes ago, Jason M said:

, some of us did try in vain to point out that this was overhyped beyond anything ever witnessed in here. Looking at where we are right now I’d say the odds of record breaking warmth far exceed the odds of severe cold. With the building of heights over Spain that’s a one way ticket to Mildsville IMHO.  Could get a Spanish plume out of that scenario.

Hopefully this will look silly by the morning.

 

Agreed. There were a few that did point this out. It got lost and shut down quite quickly. I do appreciate the model thread is for looking precisely at that...model runs.....

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

2 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

There’s still a lot of winter left, so I wouldn’t hang up your skis just yet. 

Ah damn!  just sold them and picked up some budgie smugglers for the spring! 

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

5 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Don’t forget the Thames freezing over!!!

Forgot about that one. Incredible. 

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

Just now, Jason M said:

Was there a cold spell? Hadn’t realized, what with all the rain falling.

Ha! I know. 2 frosts and a cold day today....apparently thats the cold spell

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

4 minutes ago, YellowSnow said:

Don’t hold your breath though, you might suffocate waiting.

Ha! Yeah I know. Just been our luck this winter so far. Been on cusp of a few things. But not one flake. 

My fault for getting caught up in it. I knew when the models started the "something big at 10days malarkay" that it wouldn't materialise. Was waiting for the ECM/MO change. 

Its only weather

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

Still waiting for this top 10 winter that so many predicted! 

Thats the issue with chasing 10+day FI outputs. Still holding out hope for late Jan 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards]

thoughts on tonight's precip slipping further south and east? Im right on the margin (Chilterns)- GFS seems to sho it covering me - but the Icon, Arome, Arpege are less confident?

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Whikever our atmosohere is in this sort of state with northern blocking and an upcoming ssw on the way we will always stay in the game for something memorable.

We still have to hope pieces of the jigsaw land in the correct holes

Its 2 weeks will he 3 weeks below average next week with a ssw to come so its aoready been a noteworthy winter comoared to some of the dross weve had

Cheers. Yes, but nothing compared to some winters. We have had about 3 frosts here do far. Considerable talk about top 2 or 3 for some time. I was always worried. 

Interesting to see how the SSW plays out. I'm not suprised at all that the GFS has backtracked. It seems to happen year after year. Fingers crossed for upgrades.

 

 

 

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

16 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I dont think we will turn mild. Its looking more like a reshuffling of the deck due to the Southern Greenland shortwave. We know obviously we are forecast to stay cold after this so just a relaxation and go again towards the end end of the month when we will get a better imprint from the strat. O still feel we will get snowy surprises from a low in this period

What are chances of seeing something memorable like you mentioned a few weeks back? Are we looking to back of Jan now?

Have the effects  of the SSW been factored in yet? 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS 18z 60 V 66 12z

More snow

either bands likely to meet? I'm slap bang in the middle as always! 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards]

Potential for some flurries I think along chilterns and Northern home counties as current shows slip south. Not expecting much 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards]

Just now, Sheldon Cooper said:

@Zak M posts here from Bedfordshire and I imagine it would be here that you would be classedd as.

Cheers. This is what I thought. I presume just lots of members right on the south coast. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion Sept 2020 onwards]

1 hour ago, Chiltern_Blizzard said:

can i check where this regional thread covers? I'm in North Bucks and I wouldn't class ourselves as proper SE...but also I wouldn't say we are South Central? 

I always feel we are caught between a number of regionals. Any help really appreciated. 

Anyone help me on this? So i know when to look and post? 

[Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Were already on day 5/6 of a cold spell buddy. Snow has fallen in several places. Some look to get lucky due to an upgrade in uppers on the easterly and were trying to find consensus on a low dropping due south from the arctic.

Everything has tickled along just as expected with the ssw the final and potentially coldest piece of the jigsaw just coming into view

Cheers for the reply Scott. Our area (North bucks) has had snow on a number of the models at  10 days but these have never come to fruition...so I'm curious as to if the ones at 10 days now will ever come to reality. Feels like chasing an impossible dream always out of touch until it disappears totally. Perhaps I'm too pessimistic